THE WATCH LIST
• Momentum markets: Albania, Morocco • Comeback candidates: Hungary, Indonesia • Cautious upside: Lebanon • Long-term potential, high uncertainty: Iran, Israel, Syria • Asia Pacific beneficiaries: Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, New Zealand, Vanuatu
FUTURE DESTINATION WINNERS
reflecting strong regional demand and continued destination development. Japan will also continue to benefit from intra-regional growth. The Middle East is expected to see particularly strong gains. UAE destinations are forecast to continue increasing their global share, supported by proximity to fast-growing source markets, sustained destination investment, and expanding connectivity. Saudi Arabia is also projected to record significant growth, underpinned by large-scale investment in leisure and business tourism infrastructure, alongside continued expansion in religious travel. Destinations to watch Looking slightly further ahead, several tourism destinations stand out as ‘ones to watch’: Albania and Morocco are already seeing rapid gains and still have room to run. Both countries have invested in infrastructure, tourism products and smart marketing. Morocco’s outlook is further boosted by preparations to co-host the 2030 World Cup. Hungary and Indonesia are expected to regain market share. Both were gaining prominence prior
to the pandemic, driven by destination development and affordability. Recent performance has been held back by weaker growth in their key source markets, but underlying attractiveness remains strong and a rebound is expected. Further out, Lebanon is viewed as a cautious upside opportunity. It is relatively more removed from current regional tensions and could regain market share as conditions stabilise, though uncertainty remains. Some destinations, such as Iran, Israel and Syria , have substantial long-term potential but face high geopolitical uncertainty. Syria, in particular, could become a longer-term opportunity if investment and stability return, supported by major infrastructure projects including the redevelopment of Damascus International Airport. Given the uncertainty, these markets remain firmly in the “watch” category rather than near-term growth calls. Beyond the largest winners, several Asia Pacific destinations are also well positioned to benefit as Chinese outbound travel recovers and regional travel deepens.
• China: third-largest destination by 2035 • Thailand: rising into the global top 10 • Middle East:
fastest-growing region by share
• Saudi Arabia:
major gains driven by large-scale investment • Winners: will be those best aligned to Asian source markets
Source: Tourism Economics
These include Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia , as well as New Zealand and Vanuatu , which in the future, could benefit from improved affordability, new investment and more diversified source markets.
All statistics quoted are sourced from Tourism Economics unless otherwise stated.
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