Dramatically Improving Economic Indicators Suggest a Brighter 2024 Housing Market
San Francisco Real Estate January 2024 Report
Dramatically Improving Economic Indicators Suggest a Brighter 2024 Housing Market
In the last 2 months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. With the fall in inflation this past year, the Fed is widely expected to begin dropping its benchmark rate, probably in multiple steps, in 2024. The consensus forecast among analysts is for further declines in mortgage interest rates.
After its end-of-year rally, the S&P Index was up 25% and the Nasdaq up 45% in 2023 (though it has ticked down in early 2024). This plays a major role in Bay Area household wealth.
On an annual basis, the 2023 median house sales price was down 13% from 2022, while on a quarterly basis, the Q4 price was down less than 1% year-over-year.
The 2023 market was characterized by high interest rates, financial market uncertainty, negative media “doom - loop” narratives (terribly overdone), social/economic issues pertaining to the downtown district, and a low supply of new listings in most neighborhoods – generally much lower for houses than for condos. Total sales volume plunged, while for many prospective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling, media coverage turning more positive, AI companies expanding in downtown, and economic conditions and consumer confidence rebounding, the direction is trending positive for San Francisco real estate.
Note: As often seen in recent years, the complex economic, political and social factors affecting interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence, and housing and financial markets can change quickly in unexpected ways. Forecasts and predictions are best guesses based on the interpretation of recent economic data and trends.
“Inflation around the globe is slowing way faster than expected. If economists are right...next year [will see] inflation back to normal levels for the first time in three years. ” Wall Street Journal , 12/24/23, “For Much of the World, Inflation Will Be Normal in 2024 –Finally” “ Consumer sentiment...soared 14% in December [due to] substantial improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation...All age, income, education, geographic, and political identification groups saw gains in sentiment...[2024] inflation expectations plunged from 4.5% last month to 3.1% this month. ” University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index, December 2023 “ Housing starts surged to a six-month high, sales of previously owned homes picked up from a 13- year low and builder optimism boosted by increased interest from prospective buyers. Meanwhile, Americans’ home-buying plans rose this month by the most in more than a year. The bounce back comes as mortgage rates have declined by...the biggest drop over a comparable period since 2009. ” Bloomberg News , 12/20/23 “ The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained below 7%...after 17 consecutive weeks above. Lower rates are bringing potential homebuyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market...Heading into the new year, the economy remains on firm ground with solid growth, a tight labor market, decelerating inflation, and a nascent rebound in the housing market. ” Freddie Mac, 12/21/23 & 12/28/23 Changes in economic indicators didn’t begin to affect market psychology until early-mid November, right before the big holiday slowdown, and the homebuying process takes 30 to 60 days from loan qualification and offer acceptance to closed sale. Significant effects on sales statistics will not begin to show up until early 2024 data starts to become available.
Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
10/26/23 7.79%
7.8
7.6
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on December 28, 2023, the weekly average, 30-year interest rate declined for the 9 th week, to 6.61%. (For 15-year loans, the rate was 5.93%.)
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
12/28/23 6.61%
6.6
Jan. 2023
6.4
6.2
6.0
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Median House Prices Median House Sales Price by Year, 1993 – Present*
2021 peak
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. San Francisco contains neighborhoods of widely varying values.
House Median Sales Price The median house sales price in 2023 was down about 13% from 2022.
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
Annual data can disguise significant changes that occurred within the calendar year.
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
2007
$800,000
Mid- 90’s recovery & dotcom boom
Recovery, high-tech & pandemic booms
$600,000
Early 90’s recession after late 80’s boom
Loan standards collapse
Market crash & recession
$400,000
$200,000
$0
*Per CA. Association of Realtors annual historical survey for existing single family dwellings. 2023 an estimate based on sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early Jan. 2024. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales. Various sources of data may calculate median sales prices slightly differently.
San Francisco House Price Trends Median House Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter
Q2 2022 Peak
Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2. Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Year over year, the Q4 2023 median house sales price was down less than 1% from Q4 2022.
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Broker Metrics or Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
San Francisco Median Condo Prices Median Condo Sales Price by Year, 1993 – Present
2021 peak
The 2023 median condo sales price was down about 6% from 2022.
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The city contains condo projects and neighborhoods of widely varying values. Annual data can disguise significant changes that occur within the calendar year.
$1,200,000
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
$900,000
2007
$800,000
$700,000
Mid- 90’s recovery & dotcom boom
$600,000
Recovery, high-tech boom & pandemic
$500,000
Early 90’s recession after late 80’s boom
$400,000
Loan standards collapse
Market crash & recession
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Per sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early January 2024. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Year over year, the Q4 2023 median condo sales price was down about 1% from Q4 2022. Q2 2022
San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation Median Condo Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter
Seasonal fluctuations are common. It is not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2. Different city districts have been see varying median price trends.
$1,300,000
$1,200,000
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Broker Metrics/Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.
San Francisco Median Condo Prices Median Sales Prices by Year since 2005
Pandemic hits ▼
Downtown/SoMa/Civic Center
Other SF Neighborhoods
$1,300,000
Comparing median condo sales prices between the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center district – hit hardest by negative pandemic economic/social effects – and the rest of San Francisco.
$1,200,000
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
$900,000
2007-08
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Per sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco Median Condo & TIC Prices Median Sales Prices by Year, 2000 – Present
2021
Condo Median Sales Price TIC Median Price
$1,200,000
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value.
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
$900,000
2007-08
$800,000
Pandemic market
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
Recovery & high-tech/IPO boom
$400,000
Subprime bubble
Market crash & recession
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Per sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco Median $/Sq.Ft. Values Median Home Values by Year since 2005* Median values are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Values vary widely across submarkets within the county. In San Francisco, condos typically sell for higher $/sq.ft. values than houses, though the difference has been narrowing in recent years.
House Values
Condo Values
$1,100
$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$-
*Per NorCal MLS Alliance Infosparks calculations, for sales reported to MLS. Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco Annual New-Listing Volume Number of New Listings Coming on Market by Year, since 2005*
9985
9807
10,000
9274
9138
8988
The number of new listings in 2023 was the lowest in decades.
8882
8792
8242
Subprime bubble
8178
7679
8,000
Pandemic market
7281
7255
7032
6922
6747 6626 6798 6716
Foreclosure crisis & great recession
6233
6,000
Market recovery and high-tech boom
Interest rates soar
4,000
2,000
0
*All attached and detached residential home listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations in early January 2024. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change due to late-reported activity. Not all listings are posted to MLS. In San Francisco, many new-project condo sales are not posted.
San Francisco Annual Sales Volume Number of Home Sales by Year, since 2005*
2023 sales volume was down about 27% from 2022.
8,000
7663
Annual Sales Sales volume is affected by both buyer demand and the number of listings available to purchase, which are deeply impacted by positive and negative economic conditions. Large shifts can occur within a single calendar year, as occurred in 2022.
7108
7,000
6398
6326
6141
5852
5802
6,000
5710
5645
5552
5489
5474 5370
5361
5331
4975
4866
Subprime bubble
5,000
Pandemic market
4645
Market recovery and high-tech boom
4125
4,000
Interest rates soar
Foreclosure crisis & great recession
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January, and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS. In San Francisco, many new-project condo sales are not reported.
San Francisco Residential Market 2023 Home Sales by Price Segment*
$5,000,000+
$4,000,000 -$4,999,999
2% 2%
.4% of sales were for $10 million+
4%
$3,000,000 -$3,999,999
28%
12%
$2,000,000 – $2,999,999
Under $1,000,000
82% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos, co-ops and TICs.
There were over 4050 home sales in 2023.
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
19%
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
Sales by Property Type* • House 47% • Condo 45% • TIC 6% • Co-op 1% • Townhouse 1%
50% of sales of $1m - $1,499,999 were condos, co-ops and TICs.
32%
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/22/23. Not all sales are reported to MLS, especially many new-project condo sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
San Francisco: 2023 Market Dynamics by Property Type & Price Average Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) Readings*
Summary 2023 readings*
16
House Market: MSI
Condos, TICs, Co-ops: MSI
20+
14
MSI measures the number of months it would take to sell the listings on market at existing rates of sale: The lower the MSI reading, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale. In San Francisco, demand has been much stronger for houses than for condos, co-ops and TICs, and also stronger in lower compared to higher price segments.
12
10
9.3
8.3
7.9
8
6
4.8
4.6
4.2
4
3.4
2.6
2.5
2
0
Under $1,000,000 $1m - $1,999,999 $2m - $2,999,999 $3m - $4,999,999
$5 Million+
*An average of monthly MSI readings in 2023 through November: Sales reported to SFARMLS, per Broker Metrics. Outlier data adjusted when identified. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Annual Sales - $5,000,000+ Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2005*
199
Sales: $5 Million+
Sales: $10 Million+
200
Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the number of listings available to purchase, and appreciation trends – all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).
150
Though home sales of $5 million+ fell in 2023 (from the high sales volumes during the pandemic boom), $10 million+ sales were relatively unchanged from 2022 (though well down from the 2021 peak).
120
Pandemic market
100
92
84
79 78 80
75
71
Interest rates soar
62 62
2007 peak
47
50
37
Great recession
33
Market recovery and high-tech boom
28 27
26
24
28
14
16
16 15
14
13 11
11
10
9
8
7
7
6
5
3 3
3
2
0
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January, and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. In SF, many new-project condo sales are not reported.
San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Market in 2023* House Sales of $4,000,000+, by District, 12 Months Sales
$4m - $4,999,999
$5m - $7,999,999
$8,000,000+
Pacific & Presidio Heights/ Cow Hollow/ Marina (D7)
18
27
23
Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys/ Ashbury Heights, BV Park (D5)
23
14
1
Sea Cliff/ Lake St./ Jordan Pk/ Richmond District (D1)
7
7
6
St. Francis Wood/ Forest Hill Monterey Heights (D4)
There were 15 house sales of $10 million+ reported to MLS during the 12-month period and 2 listing currently pending sale. 3 sales were reported of $20 million+.*
5
1
Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills (D8)
2
3
1
Potrero Hill/ Inner Mission Bernal Heights (D9)
3
1
Lower Pacific Heights/ Hayes Valley/ Alamo Sq. (D6)
3
Unit Sales in Price Segment
*12 months sales and pending sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/18/23. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which often include adjacent neighborhoods not listed. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Luxury CONDO, CO-OP, TIC & TOWNHOUSE Market in 2023* Sales Prices of $2.5 Million+, by District, 12 Months Sales
$2.5m - $2,999,999 $3m - $3,999,999 $4m - $4,999,999 $5 Million+
Pacific & Presidio Heights/ Cow Hollow/ Marina (D7)
19
14
6
8
South Beach/ SoMa/ Mission Bay/ Y. Buena/ Potrero Hill (D9)
7
7
8
4
Some new-project luxury condo sales are not reported to MLS. These projects are mostly concentrated in the greater South Beach/Yerba Buena/SoMa area.
Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills/ Financial District (D8)
8
7
4
Hayes Valley/ NoPa/ Alamo Sq./ Lower Pacific Heights (D6) Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys/ Ashbury & Corona Heights (D5)
96 of these sales were condos, 9 were co-ops, 7 TICs and 2 townhouses.*
8
6
1
There were 2 sales of $10 million+ reported during the 12-month period.
4
Lake Street/ Jordan Park/ Inner Richmond (D1)
2
1
Unit Sales by Price Segment
*12 months sales and pending sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/18/23. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which often include adjacent neighborhoods not listed. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Luxury Home Market
Most Expensive Active or Pending Listings*
10 Highest Home Sales in 2023*
Neighborhood
Highest Priced Listing*
Neighborhood
Highest Home Sale*
Pacific Heights
$32,000,000
Presidio Heights
$34,500,000
Pacific Heights
$32,000,000
Pacific Heights
$23,500,000
Presidio Heights
$29,000,000
Sea Cliff
$20,000,000
Sea Cliff
$25,000,000
Sea Cliff
$18,615,000
Pacific Heights
$19,950,000
Presidio Heights
$18,500,000
Pacific Heights (co-op)
$19,900,000
Pacific Heights (condo)
$17,500,000
Sea Cliff – pending sale
$16,500,000
Cow Hollow
$16,375,000
Pacific Heights
$15,900,000
Presidio Heights
$16,300,000
Yerba Buena (condo)
$15,500,000
Presidio Heights
$14,300,000
Pacific Heights
$14,500,000
Cow Hollow
$13,500,000
Highest Sales in Other Selected Neighborhoods
Neighborhood
Highest Sale
Neighborhood
Highest Sale
Clarendon Heights
$9,938,000
Noe Valley
$7,000,000
Russian Hill
$8,000,000
Jordan Park
$6,775,000
Yerba Buena (condo)
$7,750,000
Lake Street
$6,200,000
Potrero Hill
$7,675,000
Cole Valley
$6,144,000
Buena Vista
$7,500,000
South Beach (condo)
$6,100,000
*2023 sales reported to, and active/coming soon/pending listings posted to, NorCal MLS Alliance as of 12/22/23. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. New listings and sales are posted constantly. Not all luxury listings and sales are reported to MLS.
San Francisco Homes Market Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1 st of Month*
Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses
1,558
1,536
Of the listings for sale on January 1, 2024, 27% were houses, and 73% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*
1,471
1,429
1,400
1,362
1,400
1,310
1,253
1,252
1,223
1,185
1,200
1,144
1,143 1,135 1,142
1,134
1,121
1,082
1,045
1,018
1,000
898
855
The new year begins with an extremely low number of active listings, which should increase rapidly as the market wakes up.
752
752
800
600
400
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
200
0
* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Spring 2021
Monthly Trends
800
March 2022
Monthly accepted-offer activity illustrates the enormous effect of seasonal supply and demand trends on the market. Activity picks up rapidly in the 1 st quarter, to typically peak in spring.
Oct. 2021
Oct. 2020
700
600
500
Spring 2023
Oct. 2023
Jan.
400
Dec.
300
Jan.
The # of listings going into contract measures buyer demand, but is also deeply impacted by the supply of new listings available to buy.
200
Dec.
Jan.
Updated through Dec. 2023
Pandemic hits
100
House, condo, townhouse listings going into contract as reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Last month numbers estimated based on available data, and may change with late reported activity.
San Francisco – Speed of Sale Average Days on Market, Annual Readings by Year, since 2005*
90
85
83
Condo Sales
House Sales
79
80
This statistic is an indicator of the strength of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale, measuring – for homes sold – the average time between a listing coming on market and offer acceptance. The market typically sees substantial seasonal variations in this metric, which do not appear in this annual trend chart.
70
69
63
62
65
59
60
63
58
57
50
48
50
Great recession
46
44 44
47
41 40
40
39
44
40
37
35
35
34
37
36
35
34
30
32
31
30
29
28
25
24 25
20
Market recovery & high-tech/IPO boom
Pandemic market
10
0
*Average cumulative days on market: Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
San Francisco – Overbidding Asking Price Percentage of Sales Over List Price, Annual Readings, since 2005*
82%
81%
House Sales
Condo Sales
80%
79% 79%
79%
80%
77%
77%
76%
75%
74%
70%
69%
70%
66%
66%
63%
61%
60% 59%
59%
Pandemic market
58% 59%
60%
57%
50%
48%
48%
50%
45%
44%
42%
42% 42%
41%
39%
Market recovery and high-tech/IPO boom
40%
Subprime bubble
33%
28%
30%
23% 23%
Generally speaking, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale, the more buyers compete to win the sale by overbidding asking price. Especially since the pandemic, SF overbidding percentages for houses have been much higher than those for condos.
19%
20%
Foreclosure crisis & great recession
10%
0%
*Sales over final list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change due to late- reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
San Francisco: Overbidding & Underbidding Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Annual Readings, since 2005*
100% = an average sales price at the original asking price; 104% = an average sales price 4% above asking; 98% = an average sales price 2% below asking.
House Sales
Condo Sales
115%
115%
115%
114%
115%
114%
Houses typically see much higher overbidding percentages than condos, which sold, on average, slightly below asking price in 2023.
112%
112%
111%
Pandemic market
109%
109%
110%
108%
107%
107%
106%
106%
105%
105%
105%
104%
105%
104%
103%
103%
102%
102% 102%
100%
100%
100%
99%
100%
98%
98%
98%
98%
98%
97%
Market recovery and high-tech/IPO boom
96% 95%
94%
95%
Foreclosure crisis & great recession
90%
85%
*The ratio of sales price to the original list price: sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Percentages rounded. All numbers approximate, and may change due to late- reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Annual Median HOUSE Sales Prices since 2012 San Francisco Median Sales Prices in Selected Realtor Districts
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/31/23
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
12 southern neighborhoods clustered around Bayview, Portola, Excelsior, Crocker Amazon, Visitacion Valley
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
Bernal Heights, Potrero Hill, Inner Mission
9 neighborhoods including Lake Shore, Lakeside, Ingleside, Oceanview
Sunset & Parkside Districts, Golden Gate Heights
$400,000
$200,000
$-
District 10
District 3
District 2
District 9
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that may be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Annual Median HOUSE Sales Prices since 2012 San Francisco Median Sales Prices in Selected Realtor Districts
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/31/23
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$5,000,000
Some districts – such as Districts 1 & 4 – contain neighborhoods of very widely varying values. District 7 ’s low number of sales renders its median price more liable to anomalous fluctuation.
$4,500,000
$4,000,000
Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury, Corona & Clarendon Heights; Glen Park & other neighborhoods
$3,500,000
Inner, Central & Outer Richmond; Lone Mtn; Lake Street; Jordan Park & Sea Cliff
Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & Marina
$3,000,000
16 neighborhoods clustered around St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Miraloma Park & Sunnyside
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$-
District 4
District 1
District 5
District 7
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Not all sales are reported. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that may be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Annual Median CONDO Sales Prices since 2012 San Francisco Median Sales Prices in Selected Realtor Districts
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/31/23
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$1,600,000
In some districts, new condo construction makes year-over-year, apples-to-apples price comparisons difficult. Median sales prices are often affected by factors besides changes in fair market value.
$1,400,000
South Beach, Mission Bay, SoMa, Potrero Hill, Inner Mission, Dogpatch, Bernal
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
Hayes Valley, NoPa, Alamo Square, Lwr Pacific Heights & Western Addition
Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach; & Financial District
Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Corona Heights, Mission Dolores & others
Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & Marina
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
District 9
District 6
District 8 North
District 5
District 7
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Many new-project condo sales are not reported. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that may be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Bay Area Median House Values by County 2 nd Half 2023 Sales: By Bedroom/Bath Count*
4 Bedroom, 3 Bath Houses
5+ Bedroom, 4+ Bath Houses, 3000+ sq.ft.
County In alphabetical order
Median Sales Price
Median Square Footage
Median Dollar per Square Foot
Median Sales Price
Median Sq.Ft./ Median Lot Size
Median Dollar per Square Foot
3825 sq.ft. .24 acre lot 3800 sq.ft. .30 acre lot 4162 sq.ft. .55 acre lot 4579 sq.ft. 1 acre lot 4242 sq.ft. 1.3 acre lot 4242 sq.ft. .09 acre lot 4460 sq.ft. .50 acre lot 3872 sq.ft. .32 acre lot 3757 sq.ft. .54 acre lot 3722 sq.ft. .23 acre lot 3942 sq.ft. 1.4 acre lot
Alameda County
$1,600,000
2226 sq.ft.
$713/sq.ft.
$2,675,000
$679/sq.ft.
Contra Costa
$1,060,000
2341 sq.ft.
$472/sq.ft.
$2,262,500
$579/sq.ft.
Marin County
$2,000,000
2405 sq.ft.
$750/sq.ft.
$3,700,000
$956/sq.ft.
Monterey County
$1,000,000
2213 sq.ft.
$453/sq.ft.
$5,000,000
$928/sq.ft.
Napa County
$1,207,500
2215 sq.ft.
$511/sq.ft.
$3,091,000
$672/sq.ft.
San Francisco
$1,900,000
2162 sq.ft.
$870/sq.ft.
$4,600,000
$1080/sq.ft.
San Mateo County
$2,418,000
2385 sq.ft.
$1006/sq.ft.
$6,200,000
$1375/sq.ft.
Santa Clara County
$2,050,000
2187 sq.ft.
$933/sq.ft.
$4,299,000
$1037/sq.ft.
Santa Cruz County
$1,567,500
2388 sq.ft.
$657/sq.ft.
$2,325,000
$643/sq.ft.
Solano County
$700,000
2203 sq.ft.
$314/sq.ft.
$967,500
$275/sq.ft.
Sonoma County
$965,000
2238 sq.ft.
$436/sq.ft.
$2,240,000
$568/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance during the 6 months through mid-December 2023. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. “Fixer - uppers” excluded. Numbers approximate, and may change with late reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Bay Area Median House Values by County 2 nd Half 2023 Sales: By Bedroom/Bath Count*
2 Bedroom, 1-2 Bath Houses
3 Bedroom, 2- 2½ Bath Houses
County In alphabetical order
Median Sales Price
Median Square Footage
Median Dollar per Square Foot
Median Sales Price
Median Square Footage
Median Dollar per Square Foot
Alameda County
$850,000
1049 sq.ft.
$818/sq.ft.
$1,200,000
1484 sq.ft.
$792/sq.ft.
Contra Costa
$635,000
1026 sq.ft.
$613/sq.ft.
$763,000
1571 sq.ft.
$514/sq.ft.
Marin County
$1,350,000
1166 sq.ft.
$1105/sq.ft.
$1,446,500
1723 sq.ft.
$847/sq.ft.
Monterey County
$795,000
1076 sq.ft.
$729/sq.ft.
$850,000
1613 sq.ft.
$528/sq.ft.
Napa County
$799,000
1249 sq.ft.
$700/sq.ft.
$850,000
1568 sq.ft.
$598/sq.ft.
San Francisco
$1,242,500
1220 sq.ft.
$1052/sq.ft.
$1,600,000
1674 sq.ft.
$956/sq.ft.
San Mateo County
$1,337,000
1050 sq.ft.
$1230/sq.ft.
$1,746,000
1570 sq.ft.
$1116/sq.ft.
Santa Clara County
$1,242,500
1070 sq.ft.
$1107/sq.ft.
$1,625,000
1482 sq.ft.
$1107/sq.ft.
Santa Cruz County
$862,500
1039 sq.ft.
$775/sq.ft.
$1,280,000
1584 sq.ft.
$761/sq.ft.
Solano County
$459,000
1255 sq.ft.
$358/sq.ft.
$565,000
1548 sq.ft.
$378/sq.ft.
Sonoma County
$702,500
1212 sq.ft.
$587/sq.ft.
$805,000
1626 sq.ft.
$512/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance during the 6 months through mid-December 2023. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and may change with late reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values by County 2 nd Half 2023 Sales: By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count*
2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Condos
3 Bedroom, 2-3 Bath Townhouses
County In alphabetical order
Median Sales Price
Median Square Footage
Median Dollar per Square Foot
Median Sales Price
Median Square Footage
Median Dollar per Square Foot
Alameda County
$666,000
1080 sq.ft.
$604/sq.ft.
$925,000
1508 sq.ft.
$631/sq.ft.
Contra Costa
$600,000
1130 sq.ft.
$529/sq.ft.
$853,000
1539 sq.ft.
$560/sq.ft.
Marin County
$760,000
1152 sq.ft.
$644/sq.ft.
$929,000
1585 sq.ft.
$577/sq.ft.
Monterey County
$830,000
1175 sq.ft.
$640/sq.ft.
Too few sales
Napa County
$765,000
1154 sq.ft.
$653/sq.ft.
Too few sales
San Francisco
$1,245,000
1194 sq.ft.
$1053/sq.ft.
Too few sales
San Mateo County
$892,500
1148 sq.ft.
$775/sq.ft.
$1,400,000
1611 sq.ft.
$913/sq.ft.
Santa Clara County
$825,000
1150 sq.ft.
$722/sq.ft.
$1,292,500
1555 sq.ft.
$809/sq.ft.
Santa Cruz County
$750,000
1089 sq.ft.
$745/sq.ft.
$940,000
1459 sq.ft.
$659/sq.ft.
Solano County
$385,000
989 sq.ft.
$371/sq.ft.
Too few sales
Sonoma County
$440,000
1041 sq.ft.
$427/sq.ft.
$621,000
1333 sq.ft.
$402/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance during the 6 months through mid-December 2023. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and may change with late reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage. Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – suchas “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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