Five-Year Forecast - Introduction Long-range forecasting of annual budget priorities creates a framework for evaluating budgetary impacts, building a baseline for measuring effects of decisions, reviewing economic effects on funding scenarios, and provides an understanding of revenue and expenditure projections. The financial forecast does not present a 5-year budget or plan for the City. Forecast models are not absolute predictions of the future, instead are projections of possible outcomes based upon a set of variables and assumptions to evaluate annual decisions. This financial forecast is the first framework that will be evaluated and updated yearly.
1.
Economic outlook:
1.1 Population The City of DeSoto population grew from 37,646 in 2000 to 56,145 in 2020 according to the U.S Census, and continues to experience steady growth. The City’s past growth rate can be the best indicator of future growth rate. The following table shows DeSoto’s population, percent change and compound annual growth rate by decade. The city experienced a large population growth from 1980 to 1990 and has grown at consistent rate since 1990.
Year 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Population Change
% Change
Compound Annual Growth Rate
15,538 30,544 37,646 49,047 56,145
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-
Source: US Census
15,006
96.58% 23.25% 30.28% 14.47%
6.99% 2.11% 2.68% 1.36%
7,102
11,401
7,098
3.26%
The city is currently about 75 percent built out, leaving approximately 25 percent of land area of the community to be developed. This means that DeSoto has currently reached 65 percent of its build-out, or ultimate, population of approximately78,000persons. Assuming a conservative growth rate of 1.5 percent, DeSoto is expected to reach its ultimate capacity after 2040. It is important to keep in mind that population projections are subject to change and can be impacted by number of factors such as technology, the local and national economies, and the real estate market.
1.2 Housing and Real Estates
Single Family Building Permits by Year
300
270
246
230
250
215
200
153
149
125
150
100
50
0
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021
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