الكبـرى إلـى عقيـدة أمنيـة مشـتركة، ومنظومـة دفاعيـة متعـددة الطبقـات، وقدرات اعتـراض ومضـادات مسـي ََّرات أقـل كلفـة وأكثـر اسـتدامة، وردع خليجـي قـادر على العمـل تحـت الضغـط. يـّا مشـروط ًًا، � وتتعامـل الدراسـة مـع هـذا التكامـل بوصفـه مسـارًًا سياسـي ًّّا وعمليات ، ثـم 2021–2017 تختبـره في ضـوء أبـرز شـاهد مضـاد عليـه، وهـو الأزمـة الخليجيـة تقـدم في خاتمتهـا ثلاثـة سـيناريوهات استشـرافية مدعومـة بمؤشـرات متابعـة وآفـاق زمنيـة، بمـا ينقـل التحليـل مـن مسـتوى التوصيـات العامـة إلـى مسـتوى تقديـر المسـارات الممكنـة. على إيـران، مضيـق هرمـز، فجـوة 2026 الأمـن الخليجـي، حـرب الكلمـات المفتاحيـة: الكلفـة، التكامـل الدفاعـي الخليجـي، الـردع الإقليمـي، التهديـدات الهجينـة. Abstract This study is based on the central premise that the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on 28 February 2026 and lasted for months before ending with a conditional truce, was not an isolated military event within the geography of the conflict between Tehran and its adversaries. Rather, it was a moment of strategic exposure for the entire Gulf security system. For the first time since the Tanker War of the 1980s, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states found themselves direct targets of widespread Iranian fire, not merely a buffer zone for the conflict. The study interprets this war as a “revealing case” that allows for testing the perceptions that have governed Gulf security since the end of the Cold War, rather than simply as a narrative of its military events. The study argues that the war demonstrated the Gulf’s shift from a “linear threat” to a “composite threat” logic, and that the deeper flaw in the Gulf defence system lies not in a lack of resources or spending, but rather in their allocation and the limited integration among its member states. Two key analytical propositions in this study find their practical support in the course of the war: the “cost gap” between inexpensive offences and costly defences, manifested in the Gulf states depleting between three-quarters and nine-tenths of their interceptor missile stockpiles within weeks; and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, exemplified by the halt in gas production at Ras Laffan, the shutdown of the Ras Tanura refinery, and the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
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