The study concludes that the future of Gulf security will be determined by the ability of the GCC states to shift from a logic of importing security guarantees to one of building organised, self-reliant capabilities. This means moving from heavy dependence on external guarantors and major defence deals to a shared security doctrine, a multi-layered defence system, less costly and more sustainable drone interception and countermeasure capabilities, and a Gulf deterrent capable of operating under pressure. The study treats this integration as a conditional political and operational path, testing it against the most prominent counterexample: the 2017–2021 Gulf crisis. It then presents three forward-looking scenarios, supported by monitoring indicators and time horizons, thus moving the analysis from the level of general recommendations to an assessment of possible paths. Keywords: Gulf security, 2026 war on Iran, Strait of Hormuz, cost gap, Gulf defence integration, regional deterrence, hybrid threats.
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