THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
FIGURE 5
Long-term Outlook, Lower Mainland 2017 - 2041
48%
46%
44%
43%
38%
36%
Population 1,100,186
Dwelling Units 498,204
Ground Oriented 292,351
Apartment 205,853
Owned 352,403
Rented 145,801
MORE OLDER OWNERS. As with ground oriented rates increasing through family-formation, so too do owner- occupied rates. From a high of 24% in the 30 to 34 age group, rental rates decline steadily with increasing age, falling to only 11% of those in the 85-plus group maintaining a households in rental accommodation somewhere in the Lower Mainland (versus 39% of the same age group who were owner-occupied household maintainers). Combining trends in these age-specific patterns of housing occupancy with the projection of regional population growth and change yields an outlook of the future scale and composition of housing occupancy demand in the Lower Mainland. FASTER GROWTH IN HOUSING THAN IN POPULATION. Specifically, the projection shows the demand for housing expanding by almost 500,000 units between 2017 and 2041 in order to accommodate the 1.10 million additional residents (Figure 5). This 44% growth in the occupied housing stock would be driven by the 38% growth in region’s population over the same period, as well as underlying changes in its demography (such as the aging of the region’s existing millennial generation into full household formation). On average, net new housing occupancy demand would average 20,500 homes each year to 2041, which compares to growth of approximately 16,400 units annually over the past two and half decades.
Part of the explanation for future housing demand growing more rapidly than what has been observed historically relates to the pattern of growth in the region’s younger generations, combined with the changing pattern of household maintainer rates for these younger residents. Another part relates to the long (and increasing) life expectancies of the older generations and the associated high household maintainer rates in these later stages of the lifecycle. From representing 16% of the region’s population today to 22% by 2041, these older generations (those aged 65-plus) will also account for a growing share of the Lower Mainland’s private dwelling housing stock, which may in turn result in a slowing of the overall housing turnover rate in the coming years.
Accommodating the region’s future growth and change would require upwards of 500,000 new dwelling units to be added by 2041, representing an average of more than 20,000 net new units each year .
JANUARY 2019 — P A G E 8
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