THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
03.2. HOUSING DEMAND Having considered how the Lower Mainland’s population is expected to grow and change in the coming years, it is useful to consider how the region’s housing stock will, in parallel, need to change. To do this, a demographic approach that tracks people through the lifecycle of housing occupancy has been used, one that considers household age, dwelling structural type, and household tenure (as shown in Figure 4, below), to yield an outlook for regional housing occupancy demand. This housing outlook describes the number of dwelling units required to house the region’s population each year to 2041.
FIGURE 4
The Lifecycle of Housing Occupancy by Structural Type, Lower Mainland 2016
The Lifecycle of Housing Occupancy by Tenure, Lower Mainland 2016
39% 39% 38%
45% 45%
38%
37% 36% 35% 34%
40% 42% 43% 43% 45%
35%
39%
37%
Ground Oriented
Owned
33%
29%
27%
25%
28%
21%
21%
20%
20% 21% 22% 24% 23%
23% 24%
22%
21%
18% 17% 17% 18% 18%
19% 18% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11%
12%
12%
10%
Apartment
Rental
11%
1% 5% 2%
1% 3% 2%
age
age
THE LIFECYCLE PATTERN OF HOUSING. The pattern of housing occupancy follows a distinct lifecycle pattern when considered by age. From the youngest age group (15 to 19 years)—of whom only 3% indicated they maintained their own household (and thereby referred to as the household maintainer, or the person that is primarily responsible for the finances of their household)—rates increase to 16% in the 20 to 24 group as the kids begin to move out on their own, and further to between 34% and 45% for those between the ages of 25 and 34 years. Household maintainer rates remain in the range of 49% and 58% for people between the ages of 35 and 84, dropping down to 50% for the 85-plus group as these older residents move back in with their grown children or into other forms of housing such as nursing homes and seniors’ residences. As shown in Figure 4, the age-specific pattern of housing occupancy also follows a distinct lifecycle pattern when considered by dwelling structural type and by household tenure type.
APARTMENTS FOR YOUNGER & OLDER FOLKS. When considered in the context of structural forms, the relative importance of apartment dwellings is evident for each of the younger and older segments of the population. To wit, more than one in five people between the ages of 25 and 39 maintain a household in an apartment, a ratio that is similar to that of each of the 65-plus groups. GROUND ORIENTED FOR FAMILIES. In comparison, ground oriented forms of housing dominate the family-formation and family-rearing stages of the lifecycle (the 35 to 59 age groups), where over 35% of people are household maintainers in these types of dwellings (ranging from detached homes to laneway houses, duplexes, and townhomes). RENTAL AS A POINT OF MARKET ENTRY. From a tenure perspective, the role that rental plays as a means for young people to enter the housing market is clearly evident: for each of the under-35 age groups rental maintainer rates exceed those for owner-occupancy, driven by lifecycle stages characterized by a high degree of mobility for lifestyle, education, or labour market opportunities.
JANUARY 2019 — P A G E 7
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