THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
FIGURE 3
Population Change by Age, Lower Mainland 2017 - 2041
232,811
1.10 million
197,161
156%
Absolute Change
144%
Relative Change
162,800
147,143
120,171
95,696
79,562
56%
63,934
45%
39%
38%
34%
21%
909
15%
0.2%
0..14 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65..74 75..84
85+
Total
CHANGING MUCH MORE THAN GROWING. Although year- to-year relative (percentage) growth in the Lower Mainland’s total population will be modest when compared to its historical experienced due to our aging population and below-replacement fertility rates, the changes in the region’s population age composition will be more significant, a feature that will have marked impacts on everything from labour supply and employment to housing and transportation demand. To this point, Figure 3 shows how the rapid growth in the older segments of the region’s population will be contrasted by a younger population that will grow more slowly in relative terms, but that will add a significant number of people (largely through net international migration). In particular, the Lower Mainland’s 85-plus age group is projected to grow by 156% (over four times the 38% projected for the population as a whole), while the 75 to 84 year old group would grow by a similar magnitude of 144%. In contrast, each of the under-35 age groups are expected to grow more slowly than the regional average, with the slowest being the 0.2% growth projected for the 15 to 24 segment. GETTING OLDER. This pattern of change would see the 65- plus segment’s share of the Lower Mainland’s population grow from 16% in 2017 to 22% by 2041, while the prime working-age segment (those between the ages of 25 and 64) would shrink as a proportion of regional
Although growth in the Lower Mainland’s population will be modest when compared to past years, the changes in the region’s population age composition will be significant and will impact everything from labour supply and employment to housing and transportation demand .
population, from 56% to 54%. The number of people under the age of 25 would also decline in share, from 28% in 2017 to 24% by 2041. Thus, while each of these broad age groups is projected to increase in size (in absolute terms), the aging of what amounts to two-fifths of the region’s population in 2017 (those currently between the ages of 35 and 64) into the 65-plus age group over the next two and a half decades will be a defining feature of the Lower Mainland’s demography during this time. Another feature will be the aforementioned shift to migration (and, specifically, immigration) as the primary driver to population additions. Given the youthful profile of domestic and international migration, this latter trend will have a more significant impact on the younger segments of the region’s population.
JANUARY 2019 — P A G E 6
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online