THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
01. INTRO The regional projections that are persented in this report are predicated on national and provincial trends in births, deaths, and— most importantly—international and inter-provincial migration. The importance of considering higher-level geographies in the preparation of this regional outlook is underscored by recent changes to federal immigration policy, which would see Canadian immigration increase from under 300,000 people today to 340,000 annually by 2020 and furter to 350,000 in 2021—well above both trend levels and previous policy targets that ranged around the 250,000-person mark. With the Lower Mainland accommodating an average of 90% of BCbound immigrants, this policy change has significant implications for the Lower Mainland’s population outlook. Based on the projection of demographic growth and change, an outlook of future housing occupancy demand has been developed. A demographic lifecycle approach to forecasting housing occupancy demand has been used, which acknowledges the role that both population growth and changes in its age composition will have on future levels (and composition) of housing demand. In light of the robust construction activity that has characterized the Lower Mainland over the past few years, the near-term future is likely to see higher-than-average levels of housing completions. The report concludes by comparing this new supply of dwelling units to expected levels of demand.
JANUARY 2019 — P A G E 1
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