THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
03. THE FUTURE OF THE LOWER MAINLAND As with our national and provincial projections, our demographic outlook for the Lower Mainland over the 2017 to 2041 period is based on a cohort survival projection methodology, which accounts for annual changes in fertility, mortality, and migration (including both international and domestic flows), described by age and sex. As a basis for understanding the directions of change implied by the projections, a brief overview of historical and projected trends for each component of demographic change has been included before the projections of population, described by age, are presented. 03.1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANG E BIRTHS
As at the national and provincial levels, trends in age- specific fertility rates point to only marginal future changes in the Lower Mainland’s total fertility rate (or TFR, the total number of children a woman would be expected to give birth to over the course of her childbearing years). More specifically, the region’s TFR is projected to remain stable in the neighbourhood of 1.56 out to 2041. POSTPONEMENT. Despite this outward stability in the TFR, the underlying age-specific pattern of child-bearing is expected to follow historical patterns of change, most prominently characterized by a continuation of postponement in the peak child-bearing years. This pattern of postponement will result in further declines
in the propensity of females under the age of 30 to have children, and increases for those aged 30-plus.
STABILITY OVER TIME. With a stable TFR expected over the next two and a half decades, the declines in fertility rates in the younger age groups would be commensurate to the increases in rates experienced by those in the older age groups. The result would be a continuation of below-replacement levels of fertility, meaning migration will play an increasing role over time in growing the regional population. DEATHS The projection of mortality for the Lower Mainland describes further declines in age- and sex-specific
FIGURE 1
Components of Population Change, Lower Mainland 1991/92 - 2040/41
50,000
NET INTERNATIONAL
39,442
40,000
33,425
30,000
23,633
20,000
20,222
NATURAL INCREASE
8,902
10,000
4,716
13,217
NET INTER PROVINCIAL
5,782
0
-870
-10,000
-5,470
NET INTRA PROVINCIAL
-8,850
-11,082
actual
projected
-20,000
JANUARY 2019 — P A G E 3
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