Master Transportation Plan Medium-Term Modeling Analysis
1 Executive Summary The City of Fort Worth’s (CoFW) Moving A Million (M1M) program requires a defensible medium-term forecasting framework to assess how planned roadway investments affect travel demand, congestion, and operational performance. This memorandum summarizes the Medium-Term Modeling Analysis, which combines systemwide travel demand modeling with targeted intersection operational analysis to support project prioritization and implementation decisions. 1.1 Approach Systemwide forecasts were developed using the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) regional travel demand model (TransCAD) and refined to better reflect local conditions within Fort Worth. A 2023 modeling year was established to serve as the calibration anchor, supported by observed traffic volumes from TxDOT’s Texas Count Data System (TCDS). The calibrated model was used to evaluate a consistent medium-term demand condition applied to alternative network configurations representing No-Build and Build scenarios. In parallel, detailed intersection operational analyses were conducted at two critical locations—Old Denton Road & Westport Parkway and Chapin Road & Chapel Creek Boulevard—to translate forecasted volumes into lane-level performance measures (delay, queuing, and LOS) under existing, no-build, and build conditions. 1.2 Scenarios Evaluated The medium-term scenario set represents progressively higher levels of planned investment: • No-Build: Existing/committed network configuration evaluated with medium-term demand. • Baseline: Regional committed projects (MTP/TIP) reflected in the medium-term network. • Scenario 1: Baseline plus CoFW primary bond projects. • Scenario 2: Scenario 1 plus CoFW secondary bond projects. All scenarios were evaluated using consistent demand assumptions to isolate the operational effects of network changes. 1.3 Key Findings • System performance improves with bond projects. Compared to No-Build and Baseline conditions, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 demonstrate improved system efficiency, reflected in improved travel time reliability measures, higher average speeds, and reductions in roadway miles operating at LOS F. • Connectivity benefits are most evident on secondary facilities. Build scenarios shift trips away from local/secondary streets and improve access to higher-capacity corridors, with benefits most noticeable in targeted subareas where bond projects enhance network continuity. • Benefits are incremental from Scenario 1 to Scenario 2. Scenario 2 provides additional localized improvements beyond Scenario 1, though major congestion hotspots remain in high-demand corridors. • Core and freeway corridors remain critical. Key regional corridors continue to carry the highest demand across scenarios, reinforcing their importance to Fort Worth mobility and indicating
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