Master Transportation Plan Medium-Term Modeling Analysis
where persistent bottlenecks may require additional strategies over time. • Intersection analyses confirm the need for targeted operational upgrades. At the two analyzed intersections, no-build conditions indicate worsening operations under forecast volumes, while build alternatives—particularly signalized configurations with appropriate turn-lane storage— substantially improve delay and LOS, supporting the City’s preferred concepts. 1.4 Overall Conclusion The combined systemwide and intersection-level analyses indicate that advancing CoFW’s bond program projects provides measurable medium-term mobility benefits and improves overall network performance, while also highlighting remaining locations where targeted operational or capacity strategies may be needed to sustain long-term performance. 2 Introduction This memorandum documents the Medium-Term Modeling Analysis conducted as part of the City of Fort Worth’s (CoFW) Moving A Million (M1M) program. The purpose of this effort is to develop a consistent, decision-support forecasting framework to evaluate how planned transportation investments may influence future travel patterns and system performance within Fort Worth. The analysis is grounded in the regional travel demand modeling tools maintained by the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) and incorporates localized refinement to better represent conditions within the CoFW study area. In addition to systemwide modeling, targeted intersection operational analyses were performed at select locations to translate forecasted volumes into localized operational performance. The sections that follow describe the data sources, assumptions, and modeling procedures used to support the medium-term analysis, and present the resulting findings for the No-Build and Build scenarios evaluated. To support the modeling and operational analyses, regional model inputs, roadway network data, demographic assumptions, and observed traffic counts were compiled and processed for consistency across analysis years. The following section summarizes the datasets used and the preparation steps completed prior to scenario development and evaluation. 3 10-Year Systemwide Travel Demand Analysis This section documents the technical methodology used to support the medium-term traffic forecasts as part of the City of Fort Worth (CoFW) Moving A Million (M1M) project. The methodology encompasses three primary steps: matrix interpolation, model calibration and validation, and scenario development. Together, these steps are intended to produce travel demand forecasts that reflect both regional assumptions and localized conditions relevant to project-level decision-making. The NCTCOG TDM, developed in TransCAD, serves as the primary forecasting tool for the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. For this study, we leveraged this tool’s 2019 base, and 2026 forecast year outputs to interpolate 2023 demand levels, which were then calibrated using observed counts from the
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