Master Transportation Plan Medium-Term Modeling Analysis
3.3 Scenario definitions and assumptions For this analysis, scenario development was based on the 2036 NCTCOG network, reflecting projects identified in the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP 2050). To reflect near-term infrastructure investments, medium-term projects were coded onto this base network using implementation year data provided by CoFW. The No-Build scenario reflects the 2026 network configuration with 2036 demand applied, representing a condition where no additional infrastructure improvements are implemented beyond existing facilities. This scenario establishes the baseline for evaluating the benefits of proposed investments. Several Build scenarios were developed to represent increasing levels of planned improvements within the medium-term horizon: • Baseline: Utilizes the 2036 network with projects from the NCTCOG Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), reflecting regionally committed investments. • Scenario 1 (NCTCOG TIP + Primary Bond Projects) : Builds upon the NCTCOG TIP network by adding CoFW's priority (near-term) bond projects expected to be implemented within the medium-term horizon. • Scenario 2 (NCTCOG TIP + Primary & Secondary Bond Projects) : Further expands the network to include both primary and secondary priority CoFW bond projects identified as feasible within the medium-term window. All scenarios used consistent assumptions for land use and regional controls. The 2036 No-Build scenario served as the baseline, while the Build scenarios enabled evaluation of specific improvements’ benefits on travel patterns and network performance. To develop the 2036 network used in this study, the Mobility 2050 model’s 2026 coded network was upgraded. This was accomplished by comparing it against the Mobility 2045 2036 network to identify planned roadway changes—including new facilities, widened segments, and updated speed limits. These modifications were then manually incorporated into the 2026 network to create a version that accurately reflects the expected 2036 conditions. Additionally, localized edits made during the 2023 calibration efforts (i.e., such as the addition or removal of centroid connectors) were carried forward to maintain consistency across analysis years.
To support the Build scenario development, relevant network attributes were updated to reflect proposed improvements. These included:
• DIVID : Divided roadway status • CNTRLA / CNTRLB : Intersection control types at Node A and Node B • AMLN_AB / AMLN_BA : AM peak hour lane counts in AB and BA directions
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