2 Introduction Regional forecast models are essential tools in long-range planning, providing insights into future population and employment growth based on a wide range of inputs. These models incorporate authorized plans, approved developments, committed infrastructure projects, and historical growth trends. At the regional level, NCTCOG is responsible for preparing and maintaining demographic forecasts, which are updated every five years in close coordination with cities to reflect the evolving growth patterns and local land use and infrastructure plans. While regional models provide valuable, consistent projections, they tend to represent greenfield development (i.e. growth on undeveloped land at the urban fringe) more effectively than redevelopment or infill within existing urban areas. Greenfield areas generally offer greater flexibility for accommodating new development, making them easier to model at regional scale. In contrast, infill and re-development are often constrained by existing land uses, regulations, and site-specific conditions, and therefore require a more detailed, locally informed analysis than regional models are designed to provide. It is also important to note that regional forecasts typically reflect a continuation of current policies and adopted plans. They do not explicitly account for potential future policy changes, unofficial or emerging development activity, or future re-development activities. As cities like Fort Worth consider strategic shifts such as adopting smart growth policies or other transformative approaches, scenario planning becomes a valuable tool to support informed decision-making. Scenario planning is widely used by agencies around the U.S. and worldwide to explore plausible futures and assess the impacts of alternative assumptions. A scenario is defined as “ an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be—not a forecast, but one possible future outcome .” 1 For Fort Worth, this approach enables the city to test how strategies aligned with long-term goals may influence travel patterns, congestion, and system performance, helping guide investment and policy decisions that support a more vibrant and sustainable urban future. To address these considerations, this memo outlines the scenario planning methodology and key steps for developing three future scenarios (Section 7). The three scenarios consider the following: • An alternative demographic growth scenario (Acting Our Size, Section 4), • Targeted infrastructure investments identified through the Moving a Million (M1M) gap analysis and Connecting the Core (CtC) needs assessment (Section 5); and • A planning-level transit strategy in priority areas to support growth (Section 6).
1 https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop16016/ch2.htm#fn1
www.MovingaMillion.org | transportation@fortworthtexas.gov page 5
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