3 Methodology The proposed approach for the scenario planning exercise consists of five key steps as shown in Figure 1. The first step consists of the definition of plausible variations of the key inputs of the NCTCOG’s Travel Demand Model (TDM) that align with different strategies and developmental changes for the City of Fort Worth. For this scenario planning exercise, three inputs were identified for incorporating changes that more accurately align with the city’s vision and goals: demographic inputs, future infrastructure projects (represented by the network), and mode share assumptions: • The demographic scenario considered a redevelopment effort in the Core Area to match national benchmarks of downtown population and employment, and aligns with current development plans, policies and growth trends across the City. The baseline scenario considers NCTCOG’s 2050 Mobility Plan demographic projections. Section 4 details the methodology for the development of demographic scenarios. • As a result of the need assessment and gap analysis of the M1M and CtC projects, a list of transportation projects has been identified as priority investments for the long term. Some of these are new concepts and will be added to the city’s thoroughfare plan, therefore, they are not reflected in NCTCOG’s 2050 TDM network. For this reason, a network update, including these recently identified projects (or Unconstrained Network ) is needed to reflect the latest infrastructure priorities of Fort Worth. A detailed description of the network changes is included in Section 5. • In alignment with NCTCOG’s Transit 2.0 vision, one of the key strategies to be incorporated is investing in high-capacity, high-frequency transit services in priority areas to support the densification of the core and major origin-destination movements within the city. Different mode shift targets are estimated based on a benchmarking exercise of transit use in similar cities, with a higher level of transit service and density (see Section 6). The aim of changing this input is to understand the impact on the roadway network when a higher level of transit usage is present.
Figure 1: M1M/CtC Future Scenario Planning Methodology
The following steps of the methodology consist of the preparation of the model network and files to
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