6.3 Transit Share Estimation
The final transit share estimation is done by comparing the benchmarked target (Table 6) for each OD pair and selecting the minimum value between the two TAZs. This approach ensures that trip adjustments would only go as far as the least level of transit investment between each OD pair (see example in Table 7). A final check confirms that estimated transit trips are not lower than existing 5 transit trips (see second example in Table 7) and that total trips remain unchanged.
Table 7: Trip Adjustment Calculation Example
New commute trips by transit for OD pair
New commute
Commute trips by auto for OD pair
Commute trips by transit for OD pair
Total trips for OD pair
Transit target TAZ 1
Transit Target TAZ 2
OD transit target
OD pair
trips by auto for OD pair
TAZ 1 vs TAZ 2
1,000
5
1,005 2%
10%
2%
20
985
TAZ 3 vs TAZ 4
1,000
200
1,200 2%
10%
2%
20
1,000
Using this methodology the total trips before and after adjustment can be found in Table 8. Table 8 summarizes total daily auto and transit trips under the NCTCOG 2050 baseline, the Acting Our Size (AOS) demographic scenario, and AOS with the transit strategy applied. The results highlight how redistributing population and employment towards Fort Worth’s Core changes where trips are generated and attracted. Under the AOS scenario, total daily trips within the City of Fort Worth increase relative to the baseline, with the majority of this increase occurring in the Core Area. Both auto and transit trips rise substantially in the Core, reflecting the higher concentration of residents and jobs. At the same time, trips outside the Core decline, indicating that travel activity is being shifted inward from outlying areas rather than added uniformly across the region. With the transit strategy applied, total trips remain essentially unchanged, while a portion of auto trips, particularly shorter Core-based trips shift to transit. This further concentrates travel activity within the Core and reinforces its role as the primary focus of citywide travel demand.
5 Existing transit trips are based on the AOS transit share
www.MovingaMillion.org | transportation@fortworthtexas.gov page 30
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