7 Future Scenarios The scenario planning exercise evaluates how changes in growth distribution, roadway investment, and transit usage may shape Fort Worth’s long-term mobility outcomes. To anchor this analysis, a 2050 Baseline condition was developed using NCTCOG’s Mobility 2050 demographic and network assumptions. This Baseline serves as the reference case for understanding how the transportation system performs under current regional projections without additional policy or infrastructure changes by the City. Building from this Baseline, three future scenarios were designed, each layering in one or more strategic interventions. These scenarios allow the city to compare the effects of concentrating growth, implementing targeted roadway improvements, and increasing transit mode-share in a stepwise and transparent manner: 1. Future Scenario #1 – Acting Our Size (AOS): Tests the impact of shifting a greater share of population and employment to the Core while keeping the regional network and mode share assumptions unchanged. 2. Future Scenario #2 – AOS + M1M Network: Adds the M1M/CtC primary road gaps network to evaluate how targeted connectivity and capacity improvements influence travel patterns under the AOS growth distribution. 3. Future Scenario #3 – AOS + M1M Network + Transit Strategy: Incorporates the mode-shift adjustments reflecting higher transit usage in priority corridors, testing how strengthened transit investments could reduce roadway congestion when combined with AOS growth and M1M roadway improvements. Table 9 summarizes the defining inputs for each scenario and illustrates how the interventions build upon one another. This structure provides a clear framework for interpreting differences in travel demand, congestion, and system performance across the scenarios.
Table 9: Scenarios
Scenario
Demographic Scenario
Network
Transit Strategy
NCTCOG 2050 Mobility Plan Demographic Projections
NCTCOG 2050 Mobility Plan NCTCOG 2050 Mobility Plan Constrained Network – M1M Gap Analysis Constrained Network – M1M Gap Analysis
Baseline 2050
NCTCOG 2050 Mobility Plan
NCTCOG 2050 Mobility Plan
Future Scenario #1 Acting Our Size
NCTCOG 2050 Mobility Plan
Future Scenario #2 Acting Our Size
Mode shift on transit priority corridors
Future Scenario #3 Acting Our Size
www.MovingaMillion.org | transportation@fortworthtexas.gov page 34
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