8.5 Future Scenario #3 (AOS + M1M+ Transit) Figure 32, Figure 33, and Figure 34 show AM, PM, and daily volumes for Scenario 3, which applies a planning level transit mode shift to Scenario 2. Compared to Scenario 2, general-purpose lane volumes on I-820 and I-35W decrease, while managed lanes show corresponding increases. Figure 35 and Figure 36 present the AM and PM V/C ratios for Scenario 3. Improvements are observed on several collectors and minor arterials, particularly in the northeast of the city, reflecting the reduced auto demand associated with the transit shift. At the same time V/C ratios increase on managed lanes along I-820 and I-35W. The observed shifts in traffic volumes under Scenario 3 reflect route choice dynamics within the traffic assignment process. The applied transit strategy primarily reduces shorter, Core-based Home-Based Work (HBW) trips that previously used general-purpose facilities, while longer commuter trips (often from/to suburbs), remain and increasingly favor managed lanes due to their travel time advantages. Because traffic assignment re-optimizes routes for all remaining vehicles, relatively small changes in auto demand can result in noticeable rebalancing between managed and general-purpose lanes. Scenario 3 should therefore be interpreted as a directional policy sensitivity test, intended to evaluate the potential influence of increased transit usage on roadway performance. A full regional model run with explicit transit assignment would be required to fully capture traveler behavioral responses to transit investments.
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