Electricity Asset Management Plan 2019-2029
163
Vector Limited://
FORECAST INVESTMENT SUMMARY ($MILLION NOMINAL)
DESCRIPTION
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29 TOTAL
Northern network – LV reinforcements Auckland network – LV reinforcements
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
10.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
10.00
Total CAPEX
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
20.00
NEEDS STATEMENT – SYMPHONY SCENARIO OUTCOMES The primary difference between the Symphony and the Pop forecast scenarios is based on the level of ‘control’ that is exercised to manage the demand uptake. The underlying growth, using population as the proxy, is the same in both scenario’s but the differences arise primarily in the size and timing uptake of new technology.
The key differences between the two scenarios is illustrated in Table 5-1.
SCENARIO INPUT (IN 2028)
SYMPHONY
POP
Efficiency gains
80%
50%
Residential solar uptake
20%
4%
Residential battery uptake
6%
2%
EV uptake
88,000 vehicles
88,000 vehicles
EVs plugged in at winter peak
10%
50%
Efficiency gains
80%
50%
Table 5-1 Key differences between the Symphony and Pop scenarios
The impact each of the input parameters has on the network investment portfolio is briefly described below.
Energy efficiency: This impacts by lowering peak winter demand and is captured in the demand forecast. No additional investment is required although the network needs to be monitored for under-utilised assets that may be economically moved to another, more productive location Residential solar uptake: The inverters attached to each of the solar installations are configured to reduce their output when the network voltage exceeds pre-set conditions (as defined in AS/NZS 4777). This condition occurs when the LV is lightly loaded and high solar irradiance conditions (e.g. midday during summer). One of the noticeable effects of solar uptake is the tendency towards ‘clustering’ resulting in pockets of solar installations. As the penetration of solar increases, the same solar customers on the end of LV feeders have their solar output curtailed with increasing frequency as more solar/PV is added to the LV feeder. We have included a budget to address this issue at a network rather than individual level. Solutions may involve moving LV open-points, upgrading conductors, changing or adding transformers and a budget has been included for this work. Each situation will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. EV’s connected during winter/summer peak: The uptake of EV’s is the same for both the Pop and Symphony scenarios but the difference is based on the numbers of EV’s charging over the peak period. In the Symphony scenario it is assumed that no more than 10% of the EV fleet will charge at customers are incentivised to charge off-peak. In contrast, the Pop scenario allows for 50% for the EV fleet to be charging at peak times. While the Symphony scenario requires a greater investment in EV charger control infrastructure, the Pop scenario requires greater investment in primary LV/MV assets. Even allowing for investment in control devices for 90% of the EV fleet, additional investment is required in primary assets to provide additional network capacity for the 10% of the fleet which is not controlled and charging at peak times. Budget has been included for smart EV chargers to be installed across 90% of the EV fleet out to 2024, after which mandated control of EV chargers may be required, or incentives or tariffs could be introduced to encourage consumer behaviour. Separate budget is also included for the 10% of the EV fleet that is not controlled. Residential battery uptake: The relatively low level of uptake is expected to have minimal impact on the network. No budget has been included for control at this time.
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