Electricity Asset Management Plan 2019-2029
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Vector Limited://
The SoSS service level is also taken into consideration when reviewing asset replacement options, and any synergies with network development works are investigated. Moreover, not all breaches of the SoSS service level are addressed through network investment, as in some cases non-network solutions are practical and more economical.
Further information regarding the standards used in our network planning practice are provided in Section 4 and Appendix 2 in Section 7.
NETWORK LOAD FORECASTING PROCESS The disruptive and growing influence of distributed generation (DG) within the distribution network means that two-way power flows must be factored into a network traditionally designed for one-directional flow i.e. substation to customer. The uncertainty of both volume and timing of EV uptake adds further uncertainty when it comes to forecasting future network demand. Where previously there was strong correlation between population growth and network demand, uptake of DG, EV’s, residential energy efficiency gains and home batteries adds complexity to the forecasting process. Within the current AMP we have adopted a scenario approach to develop the demand forecast using a wide range of inputs to ascertain the sensitivity of each scenario before selecting the most likely one. Inputs used in the scenario include historical half-hourly residential and commercial consumption data, consumer behavioural research, technology uptake data and forecasts (solar, batteries, EV etc), the Auckland Unitary Plan zone plans, population and employment data and forecasts and Statistics NZ census forecasts. For AMP 2019, we have selected a scenario called Symphony as the basis for the demand forecast. The scenario is based on a growth forecast that facilitates customer engagement and technology uptake. The model, data inputs and scenarios are described in Section 1 and the load forecasts can be found in Appendix 10 in Section 7 of this AMP. We will closely monitor load growth, particularly DG and EV uptake, and update the Symphony forecast as inputs change or new disrupting factors emerge. The objective is to stay, as much as possible, flexible and agile with our current asset investments so that we can respond to new technologies and customer demands as they emerge. As we recognise changes to the demand profile over time, we are defining network strategies to invest ahead of the technology uptake curve, to encourage customer choice, while improving network reliability, operational cost reductions and customer service excellence. NETWORK RISK MANAGEMENT At Vector, we recognise that rigorous risk and opportunity management is essential for corporate stability and performance. To drive sustainable growth, support effective decision making, and ensure business resilience, we must anticipate and respond to risks affecting both our strategic objectives and our operations. As such, our risk management practices form an integral part of the asset management process. As outlined in our Risk Management Policy, our enterprise risk management (ERM) framework provides a flexible and purpose-built approach to the application of risk management across Vector and reflects the nature of our business as a supplier of critical infrastructure, a leading New Zealand-listed company, and an operator of potentially hazardous material. Our ERM framework allows for a single, enterprise-wide view of risk, aligning across a number of profiles and contexts (as illustrated in Figure 3-5), to support the achievement of strategic corporate objectives while ensuring key operational activities are appropriately managed and assessed.
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