7/2/18
Power of Observation
Observer effect (aka, Hawthorne Effect) Measurement of how observation affects a system Bayes’ Theorem (1700’s) – Science, Math, Medicine, Microsoft, etc... Probability of an occurrence, likelihood, thought Humans & Need for Closure Urgency & Permanence Butterfly Effect Results in conditions and outcomes elsewhere
To calculate "Probability” of LOSS we will use Bayes’ Theorem.
“B ill G ates had announced in 1996 that M icrosoft’s competitive edge w as its use of Bayesian networks.” Bayes’ 250Yr Anniversary Sharon Bertsch McrGrayne Date: 17 Feb 2014
P(B/A) x P(A) P(B/A)x P(A)+P(B/A’)x P(A’)
• P(A/B) =
“Bayes’ Theorem is valid in all common interpretations of probability and is applicable in science and engineering.”
Alan Turing used Bayes’ to break the German U-boats’ Enigma code during World War II
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Reverend Thomas Bayes (1701–1761)
Note: Using the Bayesian Calculator by Birnbaum for these Calculations.
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