facilities. So, if we assume that the total enrollment of nearly 15,000 students represents the maximum growth potential, the only vehicle for revenue growth will be tuition rates or state allotment increases, both which are unlikely at this point. Under this scenario, where enrollment flattens out after FY 2025, the revenue and expense projections cross somewhere around FY 2029 shown in the graph below:
Flat enrollment scenario after FY 2025
FY20-FY35 Revenue & Expense
115,000 135,000 155,000 175,000 195,000 215,000 235,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35
Revenue
Expenses
The SEM plan enrollment projection is critical to long-term forecasting, and these targets have been incorporated into each of the remaining fund groups. This drives everything—housing and dining revenues, student activities revenues, as well as the associated costs of operations. We also rely on estimates for future enrollment headcount and FTE, tuition and fee rates, staff and faculty headcount and FTE, and, finally, wage and benefit rates. These forecasts assume growth, and there are some elements built in to accommodate for growth, such as maintaining a reasonable faculty to student ratio. There are modest inflationary estimates in some cases, particularly where there has been volatility (medical insurance and utilities, for instance).
Local General Funds Local general funds are probably the most difficult to project over the next six years due to the significant diversity of activity. Incorporating student headcount growth into fee revenue
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