The Decision Economy
to-day volatility make certainty hard to come by, and that naturally dampens confidence around public market moves. “We’ve got geopolitical events which are almost unprecedented,” he said. “It’s impacting all of our lives.” In that context, Vince believes businesses considering an IPO need to focus tightly on what they can control. Maintaining business as usual performance, serving a clear niche and staying operationally ready matters more than timing the market. “If you can keep BAU going and then be ready, be opportunistic about when it just starts to slightly change.” While the current mood feels cautious, Vince does not see this as permanent. He expects resolution of current conflicts to bring a release of pent-up energy and confidence. “At some point, the Ukraine war will end and at some point, this current conflict will get resolved,” he said. “I actually think there will be a bit of a positive whoosh factor in that.” For now, the dominant instinct is to step back and wait, but Vince sees that as a holding position rather than an end state. “It will come to an end. It just doesn’t feel like that at the moment.” Government, policy and decision confidence When asked what would most help decision- making, Vince’s answer was immediate. “Listen.” His frustration is not rooted in politics, but in process. He described engagement with Government that feels procedural rather than productive, where business leaders are asked for views but see little evidence that those views influence outcomes. “It’s almost like a tick box exercise.”Budget cycles, in particular, were cited as a source of extended uncertainty that weighs heavily on decision-making before any actual policy decisions are announced.
“They could not have done more to depress the economy in that chaotic build up, and that’s before the actual decisions they took.” Vince believes there are practical steps that could materially improve confidence, including targeted tax breaks, VAT reliefs and learning from measures that helped stimulate the economy during COVID. “They need to think about picking a couple of things that would move the dial.” At the heart of his view is the belief that businesses fund growth, employment and public services, and that a more genuinely business friendly environment would make it easier for leaders to act with confidence. “Just listen to the leaders. They’re generally trying to make their companies better and protect jobs.” Capital, cost pressure and structural constraints Looking across his career, Vince describes the current period as the hardest he has experienced for decision-making in the UK. “The reason for that is the constant instability.” Rising costs, in particular, have become a defining constraint. “The cost of doing business means it is so hard now to make money.” At the same time, true differentiation has become more difficult to achieve, raising the stakes on brand, positioning and execution. “What you’re always striving towards is that the brand becomes everything.” When asked what single factor he would remove if he could, Vince pointed to access to capital and people. “Raising money and investing in businesses to support what needs to be done is very hard.” He believes countries that perform well economically tend to have cultures and systems that actively support business ambition through access to capital and supportive environments. “Money comes from businesses which then drives economies,” he said. “You should protect, nurture and help those businesses.”
Perspective from operating internationally Vince also drew on his experience running a $250m European business for Crocs Inc, overseeing operations across 50 countries, to illustrate the contrast with a UK-centric operating environment. Working internationally allowed different levers to be pulled in response to local conditions, whether geopolitical, economic or channel specific. “At that time, the Russian business was really strong and it was easy to do business,” he said. “The Ukraine business was actually the fastest-growing country of all 50.” Channel flexibility also provided resilience, with marketplaces, direct websites and regional variation helping offset slower growth in individual markets such as the UK. “If you’re in a UK-centric situation, it’s very difficult.” Returning to the UK sharpened his view that the domestic environment can feel parochial, limiting optionality for businesses operating primarily at home. “That’s not a good thing for the country and our culture.” Looking ahead with realism Vince does not expect decision-making to become easier. “I don’t think it’s going to get easier. I think it will probably stay the same.” He sees technology as a clear area of opportunity. In the business he is leading, AI has been embraced across functions, accelerating work that would previously have required more time, cost and resource. “Decision- making in the future is actually being transformed with AI.” While the external environment remains challenging, Vince’s outlook is grounded rather than pessimistic. The focus is on capability, judgement and action. “It is offsetting the madness that we all live in, but I still think it’s going to be very, very difficult.” The opportunity, as he sees it, lies in staying focused, building strength where it counts and continuing to move forward when others hesitate. 17
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