Mid‑market businesses play a critical role in the UK economy, yet decision delays are becoming a constraint on growth. These businesses generate over one fifth of private‑sector GVA and employ more than 5 million people. Yet most leaders believe their biggest decisions are taken later than they should. The Decision Economy looks at why decision‑making has slowed, what it costs businesses, and what could be unlocked if decisions were taken earlier.
DECISION ECONOMY Unlocking Growth In The UK’s Mid‑Market
The Decision Economy
THE MID- MARKET At a glance 70% 4.7 1.9 £13.7
Report frequent delays in major decisions
Weeks on average spent to reach a major decision
Weeks of avoidable delay per decision
Billion potential annual GVA unlocked
2
The Decision Economy
THE MID-MARKET HEAVYWEIGHT
The UK mid-market, those with 50–499 employees, form the backbone of the UK economy. Collectively, they generate just over one fifth of private-sector Gross Value Added (“GVA”) and employ over 5.26 million people, despite representing only a small fraction of the companies. Over the past five years, the mid-market has expanded steadily, creating 315,000 jobs and achieving productivity growth ahead of both SMEs and large corporates. This broadly under-recognised group of businesses has proven its skills in agility and innovation, often outpacing the wider economy on key metrics. Research shows that the mid-market faces significant structural challenges. They often lack a unified voice in policy debates and support from lenders or Government initiatives. As these companies grow in scale and complexity, many experience strain on leadership capability and management processes, making it harder to navigate new markets or disruptions. A bespoke 2026 survey of 601 mid-market leaders reveals that nearly 70% experience frequent delays in major decisions, caused by factors like data
paralysis, complex internal approvals, and caution around uncertainties. These decision-making bottlenecks mean mid-tier firms often respond too slowly to crises or fast-moving opportunities. Crucially, the opportunity cost of slow decision- making is stark. Only 30% of mid-market leaders feel they make decisions as fast as they should – the rest admit to 1–2 week delays on average. In fact, our survey found that 77% of executives believe acting sooner on their last major decision would have improved the outcome, and over 40% say they missed out on a double-digit boost in revenue or savings by waiting too long. By quantifying these effects, we find that accelerating decision-making across the UK mid-market could unlock up to £13.7 billion in additional GVA annually. This equates to a productivity uplift of approximately 2.4% of the mid-tier’s current contribution to the economy, or around 0.6% of UK GVA. The gains would be distributed across all regions and industries but especially concentrated in knowledge-intensive sectors (like technology
and business services) and the larger businesses (those closer to 500 employees) which have the most at stake. For mid-market leaders and their advisers, these findings carry a clear message - speed matters. In today’s environment of inflation, labour shortages, and rapid technological change, the ability to decide and execute quickly is becoming a key competitive differentiator. Firms that consistently move earlier on big decisions build a performance edge that compounds over time. Fortunately, these businesses are inherently agile and entrepreneurial. With the right support and focus on a few critical levers including better data analytics and clearer government policy signals, they can overcome the “decision drag” and realise their growth potential. This report explores the mid-tier’s economic weight, recent performance, decision-making challenges, and the size of the opportunity if these companies can seize opportunities faster.
The research was conducted by Censuswide, among a sample of 601 Senior leaders / board members at UK mid-market companies (50-499 employees), senior managers + (involved in business decisions), aged 30+. The data was collected between 03.03.2026 - 12.03.2026. Censuswide is a member of the Market Research Society (MRS) and the British Polling Council (BPC), and a signatory of the Global Data Quality Pledge. Censuswide adheres to the MRS Code of Conduct and ESOMAR principles. 3
The Decision Economy
INSIDE THE MID-TIER
02 Over the past five years, the UK mid-tier has grown despite a volatile backdrop. Since 2019, the number of businesses has increased by around 6% and employment has risen by 315,000 jobs. In 2024, the mid-tier comprised of 42.7 thousand businesses generating £1.36 trillion in turnover and £566 billion in GVA, while employing 5.23 million people. Growth Through Turbulence Turnover and GVA Generated by Mid-Tier Businesses in 2024
Professional and business services generate the largest share of UK mid-tier revenue. Value is concentrated in the largest mid-tier firms meaning decisions taken by a relatively small number of businesses have a disproportionate economic impact. Sector Concentration: Where Value Is Created 01 Consumer Revenues Generated by the UK Mid-Tier (2024) Mid-market businesses punch well above their weight in the UK economy. There are an estimated 42.7 thousand mid- tier companies (50–499 employees) in the UK. By count, fewer than one in 133 businesses falls into this category, but collectively they have an outsized economic footprint.
1400
5.23m Individuals employed in the mid-market. 42.7k Businesses operating in the mid-market.
£1.36tn
1200
1000
Professional & business services
9%
Property
800
10%
25%
600
£566bn
13%
Technology
400
21%
200
21%
Manufacturing
0
Turnover (£tn)
GVA (£bn)
Other
4
The Decision Economy
03 Most mid‑tier firms are relatively small, with over 60% employing fewer than 100 people. Greater value is generated within larger businesses, companies with 250–500 employees generate around a quarter of revenues and nearly a third of GVA, highlighting the productivity advantages of scale and the growing complexity of decision‑making in larger mid‑tier firms. Larger Firms Generate Disproportionate GVA
04 Mid-tier firms operate across every UK region but economic output is heavily concentrated. London accounts for around one third of total mid-tier turnover and over one third of GVA, more than any other region. Other regions, such as Yorkshire & The Humber have large numbers of firms but generate a smaller share of outputs, highlighting an opportunity to further boost mid-tier performance outside the capital. Regional Imbalance
Mid-Tier Business Population By Region (2024)
GVA (£m) Contributions by Size (2024)
8
200000
7
10000 125000 15000 175000
6
5
4
30% Total GVA contribution annually
38%
32%
3
Total GVA contribution annually
Total GVA contribution annually
75000
2
50000
1
25000
0
0
100-249
250-500
50-99
5
The Decision Economy
EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVES
Decision-making with intent When the conversation turns to decision-making, Michael frames it around clarity of ambition. Discussing the decision to bring in a minority private equity investor, he was clear about the objective. “We didn’t want to fully exit the business,” he said. “We wanted to scale and grow.” External capital was positioned as a tool rather than an outcome in itself. “We use that as a tool to get finance and do what we need to do to build the business.” In this context, decisions are driven by direction and the emphasis is on maintaining momentum while putting the right structures in place to support growth. The role of advisers Michael was explicit about the role advisers played in shaping that decision. “With FRP guidance, we decided that a PE investor was the best route for us,” he said. The support he describes is practical and enabling. Advice helped validate direction, structure the decision and move it forward. “I think that’s down to funding not being available,” he said. “The cost of living has gone up that much that apprentice wages have gone up, so nobody can afford to take them on. It’s too much overhead.” Rising fuel costs also feature, driven by the scale of the operation. “I’ve got a large fleet of about 90 vans,” he noted. “Fuel costs are a big problem for us.” Despite these challenges, Michael does not describe the business as constrained in its ability to make decisions, but as selective about where focus and effort are applied.
This approach mirrors how Michael approaches his own business.
Culture and team as the foundation for speed Michael is deliberate about protecting the culture that has enabled fast decision-making as the business grows. As Buston & Maughan expands through acquisitions, his focus is on retaining the people first approach that has underpinned success to date. Decisions are shaped by a strong sense of fairness and responsibility to employees, reflected in regular pay reviews, improved benefits and an emphasis on supporting people. This approach influences how decisions are taken and implemented, with trust and accountability. Pace is also supported by the team around him. Michael has built a senior management group that understands both the business and his leadership style, providing oversight and continuity as the organisation grows. As he describes it, “I’ve built an unbelievable management team. I drive for the work, and then they’ll deliver.” As the business scales, retaining this culture and management depth is treated as a priority, recognising that speed in decision-making comes as much from people and structure as from individual leadership style. “I know my market inside out,” he said, reflecting on acquisition opportunities. “There’s a lot of good firms out there.” Deep market knowledge allows decisions to be taken quickly, with advisers supporting execution and scale.
Michael Buston Chief Executive Officer of Buston & Maughan Connect on LinkedIn
Background Michael Buston is Chief Executive Officer of Buston & Maughan, a North East-based construction and property services business operating primarily in the social housing sector. Headquartered in Willington, County Durham, the business has grown steadily by focusing on delivery, scale and strong client relationships. When asked to describe the current operating environment, Michael’s assessment is grounded. “I don’t see this as an issue,” he said. “Apart from labour shortages and material rises with what’s going on with the war, it’s business as usual.” This perspective reflects a business that is experienced in operating at pace in a regulated environment, where external shocks are absorbed into the day to day operations. Labour, skills and cost pressures For Michael, the most pressing challenges are specific and operational rather than strategic. “The only pressure problem is labour shortages,” he explained. “There’s a lack of trades coming through.” He links this directly to structural issues in the labour market.
6
The Decision Economy
What this shows about mid-tier decision-making Michael’s experience highlights an important dimension of the mid-tier. In businesses with strong operational control and market familiarity, decisions often move quickly and decisively. In these cases, the role of external support is to enable growth, provide confidence and unlock the next stage of development. Buston & Maughan’s story shows how decision clarity from leadership, combined with selective use of advisers, allows mid-tier businesses to sustain momentum and pursue opportunity even in a constrained environment.
7
The Decision Economy
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE
These pressures are intensified by external shocks and uncertainty. Mid-tier firms are deeply embedded in supply chains but lack the bargaining power and buffers of larger corporates. In our survey, 43% of firms cited rising energy costs as the most significant trigger event they had faced since 2024, a figure that rose to over half in industrial and hospitality sectors. One in four leaders also reported that post-Brexit uncertainty had slowed or complicated major decisions as they waited for clearer regulatory direction. Taken together, these pressures create a familiar pattern - leadership teams are stretched thin, urgent issues crowd out longer term decisions, and without strong external support or deep knowledge of how similar businesses operate, opportunities are missed. However, the upside is significant. Mid-tier firms combine entrepreneurial agility with meaningful scale, and where these constraints are addressed, performance gains can be substantial. This research focuses on one critical lever: how mid-tier firms make decisions, what slows them down, and why improving decision speed and quality matters so much for growth.
Post-Election Triggers We asked mid‑tier leaders which decision drivers* were the most important for businesses since the July 2024 UK General Election.
Despite their size and impact, mid-tier companies often find themselves in a support gap – neither championed as start-ups/SMEs nor as equipped as large multinationals.
The Mid-Tier Squeeze
43%
Increase in energy costs
Mid-tier businesses face constraints that differ from those of both smaller firms and large corporates. Access to finance remains a persistent challenge: they do not benefit from the tax reliefs, grants and targeted schemes available to SMEs, yet can struggle to obtain financing on large corporate terms. Alongside finance, skills and talent constraints are also now limiting growth. Apprenticeship starts have fallen by around one third since 2015, disproportionately affecting mid-tier employers in sectors such as manufacturing and construction. In our 2026 survey, more than a quarter of leaders identified recruitment and retention as a major pressure. Rising wage costs and skills shortages increasingly force firms to choose between margin and operating below capacity.
Opportunities created by technological innovation Policy announcements by Government
35%
31% Changes to business regulations 28%
Increase in interest rates/borrowing costs
28%
27%
Workforce recruitment issues
Factors causing disruption to international markets
26%
* respondents could select multiple responses
8
The Decision Economy
Decision-Making Speed Perception We asked mid‑tier leaders whether the speed of decision‑making in their business feels acceptable, or whether decisions are generally taken too slowly. DECISION DRAG IN THE MID-MARKET To better understand the impact of decision- making, we surveyed 601 senior leaders of UK mid-tier firms in March 2026 (in partnership Time to Reach a Decision We asked mid‑tier leaders how long it typically takes their business to reach a decision once a significant event occurs.
with Censuswide). The findings indicate that decision-making speed is a widespread concern, and delays have a tangible impact on business results.
Acceptable
Too slow
No time at all
Less than 2 weeks
Unsure
3%
Pace Pressure
Between 9-13 weeks
4%
Decision-making has become materially harder for mid-tier firms. In our survey, 73% of leaders said important decisions have become more difficult since mid-2024, due to policy uncertainty and ongoing economic volatility. This sentiment was strongest in manufacturing and construction (around four in five leaders saw rising difficulty) and less pronounced in technology. Larger mid-tier firms were also more likely than smaller ones to report that complexity in decision-making has increased. When faced with a significant event or opportunity, mid-tier firms take an average of 4.7 weeks to reach a decision. Only 30% of leaders consider this pace acceptable; the rest experience delays beyond what they believe is necessary, averaging about 1.9 extra weeks per major decision.
30%
7%
2%
70%
36%
48%
Between 5-8 weeks
Between 2-4 weeks
Delays increase with organisational size, companies with 250–499 employees typically take around five weeks to decide, roughly a week longer than the smallest mid-tier businesses. Given that larger mid-tier firms drive a disproportionate share of output and GVA, these longer delays carry a higher economic cost.
Decision‑making following significant events typically takes several weeks. Nearly half of mid‑tier businesses (48%) take between two and four weeks to respond, while a further 36% take five to eight weeks. Only a very small minority reach a decision within two weeks. This shows that most decisions triggered by significant events sit within a multi‑week window, creating exposure to delay where early action could make a material difference.
9
The Decision Economy
EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVES
Data helps. But judgement sets the pace Operating data is often incomplete, lagging or distorted by the very issues the business is trying to fix. “The data is never perfect,” Phil said. “Experience tells you when you’ve got enough to act and when waiting will genuinely change the outcome.” In practice, many of the most important decisions, particularly around pricing or customer relationships, only move once a conversation starts. At Archant, early decisions helped the leadership team engage with the numbers differently, shifting decision- making from cautious debate to active problem solving. “You make a decision, you execute it, you measure it and you circle back,” Phil said. “That process builds confidence, and once people see that the business keeps moving, decision-making becomes easier.” Building decision capability One of the more subtle but important points was that the decision framework does not change once a business stabilises. The principles remain the same, even as the focus moves from headcount and working capital to capex, property, integration or growth initiatives. Confidence as a turning point Confidence emerged as one of the most important enablers of good judgement. In businesses that have been under pressure for a long time, decision- making often becomes defensive, with boards and executives worried about making the wrong call rather than focused on moving the business forward. In distressed environments, even small decisions can feel loaded with consequence, which often leads to avoidance rather than action. Rcapital’s role is to break that cycle by creating the confidence and permission to act.
As Phil put it during the discussion, “You’d always rather make a decision quickly than wait to try and get a better decision, because even if it’s only 80 or 90 % right, you’ve still moved.” That preference towards action reflects the reality that in businesses facing stress or a critical moment, time itself is often the scarcest resource. Why speed matters more than certainty One of the strongest themes was that decision- making needs to be grounded in judgement rather than certainty. Waiting for perfect information tends to narrow options rather than improve outcomes, this is particularly true in carve out situations. “There’s a temptation to think that if you just wait a bit longer, you’ll get a better answer,” Phil said, “but most of the time you just lose options.” Trios FM was acquired the day before lockdown losing £1.5 million per month on a £60 million turnover. The COVID period forced rapid decisions before the situation was fully understood. “Putting as many people as we could onto furlough meant that you bought yourself the time,” Phil reflected, which created the space to understand what the business really was and what needed to change next. The business was sold 17 months later to Arcus FM following an award-winning turnaround and business transformation.
Phil Emmerson Partner Rcapital Connect on LinkedIn
Background Rcapital is a private capital investor focused on the UK mid-market, specialising in turnaround, carve outs and complex situations, investing its own capital into businesses that are under-performing, constrained or facing a complex situation. Emphasis is on judgement, pace and practical action inside the business to achieve meaningful transformation. Phil Emmerson is Partner at Rcapital. He is responsible for the performance of the portfolio and works directly with management teams across Rcapital’s investments, which places him at the centre of operational decision-making at precisely the moments when it matters most. The reality of turnaround investing Rcapital invests in businesses where the issues are immediate, with limited headroom, which means many situations demand early intervention to stabilise performance and protect value, even though the picture is rarely complete when those calls need to be made.
The compounding cost of hesitation Across the portfolio, hesitation shows up
consistently as a source of value leakage. “The cost for us is almost always increased losses,” Phil said. “You prevaricate, you lose options, you dig yourself further into the hole and you end up much closer to failure than turnaround.”
10
The Decision Economy
“You take the shackles away,” Phil said, “and people realise they can actually affect change.” Once that shift happens, decision-making tends to accelerate. Teams start to trust their judgement, close things out and move on. Responding to shocks in real time External shocks bring these dynamics into sharp focus. When discussing Cablenet, Phil focused more on the importance of having a framework that can be applied under pressure, describing the leadership as exceptionally good at creating a structure that allowed decisions to be made quickly and reused across situations. “Some people step forward in those moments,” Phil observed, “and others freeze. In our world, freezing just isn’t an option.” The role of advisers is riding shotgun When the conversation turned to advisers, Phil was clear that external support only adds value if it accelerates decision-making. In Rcapital’s world, advisers are used sparingly and with intent, typically when additional resource or specialist analysis is genuinely needed to move a decision forward. “You don’t want lots of glossy reports,” Phil said. “You want practical, data and supported action plans that lead to decisions.” The most effective advisers are those who can operate alongside management teams in real time, helping them interpret imperfect data, test judgement and move forward with confidence. As Phil put it, companies are looking for someone to “ride shotgun”, supporting decisions as they are made. “Those who work shoulder to shoulder with leadership teams can strengthen judgement, sharpen focus and help maintain pace when it matters most.”
Decision pressure in today’s mid-market The discussion also reflected on the broader pressures shaping decision-making in the UK mid- market today. Phil pointed to two factors affecting most businesses; the rising cost of employing people and sustained increases in energy costs. These pressures are particularly acute in leisure, hospitality and parts of retail, where margins are already thin and the scope to pass on cost increases is limited. In those environments, delay rarely improves the situation, which is why decisions around pricing, footprint, staffing and operating models need to be taken earlier. What this means for the UK mid-market For the UK mid-market, the lesson is straightforward. Decision-making is not about getting to the perfect answer. It is about acting early enough that you still have choices. As Phil put it, “You don’t win by being right in hindsight. You win by making the call early enough that the business still has room to move.”
11
The Decision Economy
The main source of delay to slow decisions is the time required to analyse data, forecasts and evidence. Around 26% of leaders identified this as the single biggest cause of delay, rising to nearly one third among the largest mid-tier firms. As organisations grow, they introduce more formal analysis and governance, which improves rigour but can extend timelines. SPEED TO PRECISION TRADE OFF
12
The Decision Economy
Around one fifth of leaders in businesses with 50–99 employees said their most recent major decision rested primarily on instinct or the judgement of a senior individual, compared with 14% in the largest firms. This can accelerate decisions in familiar territory, but carries greater risk where firms are moving into new markets or adopting unfamiliar technologies. Several other factors repeatedly slow decisions; uncertainty and perceived risk around options, the time needed to gather information, competing operational priorities and multi-layered approval processes. In practice, many mid-tier firms find themselves caught between two models. They no longer operate with the speed of a small firm, but they have not yet realised the benefits of scale in the form of faster, more confident decision systems. Smaller mid-tier firms rely more heavily on experience and judgement. WHEN SCALE SLOWS SPEED
Factors Influencing the Speed and Quality of Decision-Making We asked mid‑tier leaders which factors most influence the speed and quality of decision‑making in their organisations, and what most often holds them back.
Enhancing Factors
Affecting Factors
Clearer signals from Government regarding future policies or decisions
Risks or uncertainties associated with options
29%
24%
Time required to gather info needed to assess options
Improved data/evidence gathering and analysis
22%
29%
Faster decision-making from providers of business finance
27%
Competing business priorities
19%
Time needed to appraise options in detail
More accurate forecasts regarding customer markets
25%
17%
Access to the right management talent
The internal decision approval process
25%
11%
Gaps in information or data needed to assess options
7%
22%
Other
13
The Decision Economy
Regional data shows that while delays are widespread, the drivers of better decision‑making vary by location. Improved data and analysis is prioritised in London, the South East and parts of the Midlands, where complexity is highest. In contrast, quicker lender decisions are more important in regions such as the North East, Wales and Scotland, reflecting the need for faster access to finance. Better government support is cited more often outside London, highlighting differing regional conditions and policy impact. Overall, the levers for faster decisions are shaped by local economic needs rather than a single national pattern. REGIONAL DECISION DRIVERS We asked mid‑tier leaders which factors* would most improve decision‑making, highlighting how priorities vary across regions of the UK.
North East
Scotland
Yorkshire & The Humber
Northern Ireland
East Midlands
East of England
North West
West Midlands
London
Better Government support
Wales
Quicker lender decisions Improved data and analysis * respondents could select multiple responses 14
South East
South West
The Decision Economy
For decisions aimed at driving revenue growth, leaders estimate that acting sooner would have lifted outcomes by about 10%. The effect is felt most strongly in larger mid-tier firms, where delays are longer and leaders believe revenue outcomes could have been more than 10% higher had decisions been quicker. For cost efficiency decisions, firms generally targeted about 11% savings and achieved just over 10%; leaders think faster action would have improved those results by an additional 10% as well. Delays also affect wider performance, around 60% of leaders believe faster decisions would have improved innovation, profitability and productivity, in their firms. Roughly half noted that slow decision-making had hindered staff retention or training efforts, reflecting the knock-on effects of prolonged uncertainty and deferred initiatives. THE COST OF DECISION DELAY The Performance Penalty
Faster Decisions, Improved Outcomes We asked mid‑level leaders where making decisions earlier could have led to better people, capability, and commercial outcomes
People & capability
Staff training Staff retention Business resilience
56% 48% 59%
Performance & commercial
Business productivity or profit margins Innovation Additional costs avoided
62% 59% 55%
* respondents could select multiple responses
15
The Decision Economy
proposition and building a business that creates value even when conditions remain unsettled.
At the centre of that effort sit customers and people. “It sounds incredibly simplistic, but it’s really customer and people.” Serving customers well and building teams capable of delivering consistently becomes the foundation for resilience and growth. Judgement calls that create advantage Unpredictability has raised the stakes on decision- making. Even with data and experience, the risk of making the wrong call feels heightened. Vince points to hiring as a live example. “The rational thing to do would be don’t hire anyone, just wait.” Against a backdrop of policy uncertainty and external instability, caution is the default response. However, Vince describes taking a more deliberate and opportunistic position. “Let’s go fishing. Let’s see what we can find in this current challenging market.” That approach has surfaced a higher calibre of talent than might normally be expected, creating an opportunity to strengthen the business for the next phase. “We have had a disproportionate level of quality available.” The judgement lies in whether those hires can help the business navigate forward. In this case, the answer was yes, supported by contingency planning if conditions shift. Impact on IPO appetite and investment decisions Vince sees the current decision-making climate having a direct impact on appetite for IPOs and major investment moves, although he is clear that this varies by sector. “I think a lot of it is sector specific,” he said. “You’re looking for the perfect storm if you are looking to do an IPO.” Right now, he believes those conditions are largely absent. Ongoing geopolitical events and day-
EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVES
“Yes, it is very volatile, but you can’t change that. All you can do is drive up more market share through a laser focus on what you can affect.” Decision-making, in this context, blends commercial discipline with customer empathy. Alongside that sits a hard focus on cost, margin and operational choices. “We are starting to see suppliers hit us with surcharges now,” he said. “So are we going to absorb that? How long can we do that for? What are the alternatives?” The emphasis is on making deliberate choices about where to act and what to prioritise. Vince’s approach is to concentrate energy on the areas where decisions still move the dial. Building resilience through ambiguity Looking back over the last decade, Vince describes a period defined by repeated shocks. “We’ve had three generational events in one. The financial crash, Brexit, COVID and now this.” Rather than easing, that level of disruption has become a persistent feature of the operating environment. As a result, leaders must become comfortable operating with uncertainty rather than waiting for stability to return. “You have to get more comfortable with continual ambiguity.” Not all business models are able to withstand that level of pressure, and Vince is realistic about the consequences. At the same time, he is clear that many businesses continue to perform strongly, even under these conditions. “What it really highlights is where you have to win on every functional area of the business.”
Vince Gunn Interim CEO of
BathroomsbyDesign Connect on LinkedIn
Background Vince Gunn is Interim CEO of BathroomsbyDesign, with extensive experience leading UK consumer and retail businesses through periods of structural change, cost pressure and market disruption. His perspective comes from years of leading businesses and making decisions about people, customers and performance in real operating environments. For Vince, the defining feature of the current environment is volatility, and it sharpens focus on what can be controlled and acted upon. “The key word really is volatile. It is very volatile,” he said. That volatility has sharpened how he makes decisions, pushing a clear focus on what can realistically be controlled and influenced. “It’s about what you can control and affect.” Drawing on long held principles around accountability, Vince emphasises the importance of concentrating leadership attention on the levers that genuinely matter. External events, geopolitical shocks and macro uncertainty form the backdrop, but they do not define the agenda. Instead, his focus is on shaping a compelling customer
16
The Decision Economy
to-day volatility make certainty hard to come by, and that naturally dampens confidence around public market moves. “We’ve got geopolitical events which are almost unprecedented,” he said. “It’s impacting all of our lives.” In that context, Vince believes businesses considering an IPO need to focus tightly on what they can control. Maintaining business as usual performance, serving a clear niche and staying operationally ready matters more than timing the market. “If you can keep BAU going and then be ready, be opportunistic about when it just starts to slightly change.” While the current mood feels cautious, Vince does not see this as permanent. He expects resolution of current conflicts to bring a release of pent-up energy and confidence. “At some point, the Ukraine war will end and at some point, this current conflict will get resolved,” he said. “I actually think there will be a bit of a positive whoosh factor in that.” For now, the dominant instinct is to step back and wait, but Vince sees that as a holding position rather than an end state. “It will come to an end. It just doesn’t feel like that at the moment.” Government, policy and decision confidence When asked what would most help decision- making, Vince’s answer was immediate. “Listen.” His frustration is not rooted in politics, but in process. He described engagement with Government that feels procedural rather than productive, where business leaders are asked for views but see little evidence that those views influence outcomes. “It’s almost like a tick box exercise.”Budget cycles, in particular, were cited as a source of extended uncertainty that weighs heavily on decision-making before any actual policy decisions are announced.
“They could not have done more to depress the economy in that chaotic build up, and that’s before the actual decisions they took.” Vince believes there are practical steps that could materially improve confidence, including targeted tax breaks, VAT reliefs and learning from measures that helped stimulate the economy during COVID. “They need to think about picking a couple of things that would move the dial.” At the heart of his view is the belief that businesses fund growth, employment and public services, and that a more genuinely business friendly environment would make it easier for leaders to act with confidence. “Just listen to the leaders. They’re generally trying to make their companies better and protect jobs.” Capital, cost pressure and structural constraints Looking across his career, Vince describes the current period as the hardest he has experienced for decision-making in the UK. “The reason for that is the constant instability.” Rising costs, in particular, have become a defining constraint. “The cost of doing business means it is so hard now to make money.” At the same time, true differentiation has become more difficult to achieve, raising the stakes on brand, positioning and execution. “What you’re always striving towards is that the brand becomes everything.” When asked what single factor he would remove if he could, Vince pointed to access to capital and people. “Raising money and investing in businesses to support what needs to be done is very hard.” He believes countries that perform well economically tend to have cultures and systems that actively support business ambition through access to capital and supportive environments. “Money comes from businesses which then drives economies,” he said. “You should protect, nurture and help those businesses.”
Perspective from operating internationally Vince also drew on his experience running a $250m European business for Crocs Inc, overseeing operations across 50 countries, to illustrate the contrast with a UK-centric operating environment. Working internationally allowed different levers to be pulled in response to local conditions, whether geopolitical, economic or channel specific. “At that time, the Russian business was really strong and it was easy to do business,” he said. “The Ukraine business was actually the fastest-growing country of all 50.” Channel flexibility also provided resilience, with marketplaces, direct websites and regional variation helping offset slower growth in individual markets such as the UK. “If you’re in a UK-centric situation, it’s very difficult.” Returning to the UK sharpened his view that the domestic environment can feel parochial, limiting optionality for businesses operating primarily at home. “That’s not a good thing for the country and our culture.” Looking ahead with realism Vince does not expect decision-making to become easier. “I don’t think it’s going to get easier. I think it will probably stay the same.” He sees technology as a clear area of opportunity. In the business he is leading, AI has been embraced across functions, accelerating work that would previously have required more time, cost and resource. “Decision- making in the future is actually being transformed with AI.” While the external environment remains challenging, Vince’s outlook is grounded rather than pessimistic. The focus is on capability, judgement and action. “It is offsetting the madness that we all live in, but I still think it’s going to be very, very difficult.” The opportunity, as he sees it, lies in staying focused, building strength where it counts and continuing to move forward when others hesitate. 17
The Decision Economy
Faster revenue decisions could generate around £12.9 billion in additional annual turnover, equating to approximately £5.4 billion in additional GVA. Faster efficiency decisions could add a further £8.3 billion in GVA. Taken together, this implies an annual GVA uplift of £13.7 billion. THE DECISIVE OPPORTUNITY
18
The Decision Economy
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Applying these survey findings to the mid-tier’s current economic footprint suggests a substantial opportunity. At the mid-tier’s current scale, that is a 2.4% increase in GVA, equivalent to roughly 0.6% of UK GDP. This estimate is deliberately conservative, assuming firms undertake the same decisions as they do now, only sooner. Where The Economic Opportunity Sits By Sector Results for major sectors. Overall UK mid-tier revenue is £12.9 billion, and £5.4 billion GVA.
The potential gains are not evenly spread: larger mid-tier firms (though only 8% of the population) would capture roughly 40% of the total GVA uplift, given their outsized baseline contributions. By sector, the biggest opportunities lie in Professional & Business Services and in Technology, which aligns with those sectors’ scale and productivity levels in the mid-tier. Regionally, London’s mid- tier companies would deliver the largest absolute gains (due to their size and productivity), followed by the South East, North West, and West Midlands. Even regions with a high concentration of mid-tier firms but lower current output (such as Yorkshire & the Humber) stand to benefit significantly in absolute terms, albeit from a smaller base.
Decisive Difference
£3,500
Decision speed is closely linked to performance across the UK mid-tier. The evidence in this report shows that outcomes are shaped as much by when decisions are taken as by what decisions are taken. Leadership teams are actively grappling with complex choices in an uncertain environment. Decisions often slow as information arrives unevenly, accountability becomes diffused and governance structures expand as firms grow. In practice, this means decisions are frequently made later than leaders would prefer, sometimes at a point when the advantage or the value has eroded. Experienced advisers can help leadership teams reach clarity earlier, while choices still influence outcomes. This typically involves narrowing the options, testing assumptions and managing stakeholder pressures so that decisions can be taken and acted on with confidence. When independent experts add value, they strengthen judgement and execution speed in tandem.
£3,000
£2,500
£2,000
£1,500
£1,000
£500
0
Property & construction
Other business activities
Consumer, retail, leisure & hospitality
Technology Professional & Business Services
Manufacturing & Industrial
Indicative revenue uplift share
Indicative GVA uplift share
Bars show indicative distribution of the estimated national uplift across major sectors, and are not intended to sum to headline totals.
19
The Decision Economy
EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVES
Decision-making as a cultural capability While pressure, compression and uncertainty define the current environment, Nick is clear that decision quality itself is shaped far more by the corporate culture of an organisation than by process or data. When asked whether decision-making capability can be strengthened within a business, his answer is immediate. In these febrile conditions, escalation and scrutiny are inevitable. What matters is whether leadership teams can still land clear judgements and act on them, even when the path ahead is only partially visible. The ability to do that well, he argues, is increasingly what separates businesses that retain control from those that drift into reactive mode or worse, out of control.
Compression changes how boards act Nick shares that this accelerated timeframe fundamentally alters board dynamics. Decisions that once followed relatively linear processes are now taken under overlapping pressures, where waiting for full certainty is rarely an option. He observes a growing mismatch between the complexity of issues directors face and the time available to work through them properly. Debate increases, information flows intensify and risk awareness increases, yet the space to make clean calls often shrinks. Much of that pressure, in Nick’s view, comes from the compression of life cycles across the business. Product cycles, reporting cycles and leadership tenures have all shortened, while ownership expectations have shifted towards faster results. Taken together, this leaves boards operating with far less room to pause or perfect their thinking than they once had. As Nick puts it, “I don’t have that luxury of time anymore.” The cost of waiting too long Much of Nick’s work involves seeing the consequences of decisions taken too late rather than badly. Independence and judgement under pressure As an independent operator, Nick is acutely aware of how boards behave when pressure rises. His concern is not with debate, but with a tendency to confuse discussion with decision. In practice, decision quality and timing are inseparable and the current environment amplifies that reality. When everything feels uncertain, delay quietly erodes their room to manoeuvre.
Nick Alexander Independent CRO & Chair Connect on LinkedIn
Background Nick Alexander has spent his career operating at board level through periods of pressure, turnaround and transformation, often stepping in when time is limited, information is imperfect and the consequences of delay are material. When asked to describe the current decision-making environment for UK mid-market boards, Nick is direct;
“Always.”
In Nick’s experience, decision-making is not a fixed trait or something that needs to be imported from outside. It can be developed inside organisations, often using the people already there. “It can always be strengthened,” he said. “And it can always be strengthened with the existing teams.” Clarity over volume Data has a role to play, but only up to the point where it supports judgement rather than obscuring it.
“I’d describe it as febrile,” he said.
Time is condensed, uncertainty widespread and the margin for error has narrowed significantly.
“Everything feels compressed,” he added. “Uncertain.”
The effect is an environment where boards are required to make decisions faster, with less clarity and fewer degrees of freedom than they would normally expect. This pressure is constant, creating a decision-making environment that is impacting board behaviour.
“Without clarity, there can be no success.”
“You can be brilliant at operations. You can have great sales or market dominance,” he said. “But if you don’t have control of your cash and the corporate culture is inappropriate for the situation, either of those things will cause the business to fail.”
20
The Decision Economy
From moment to capability This is where decision-making shifts from being a moment to becoming a capability. Boards that practise making clear decisions under pressure, and create an environment where those decisions can be challenged and reshaped, develop a resilience that compounds over time. For the UK mid-market, Nick sees this capability becoming more important than forecasting accuracy. The environment will not become simpler and what will set teams apart is how effectively they adapt, adjust and continue to move forward. Looking ahead Nick expects volatility, compression or uncertainty to increase in the near term and to remain a defining feature of the operating landscape. What will differentiate outcomes is not the ability to predict the future, but the ability to act decisively when assumptions no longer hold. In these conditions, judgement, timing and discipline are sources of competitive advantage.
Culture under pressure For Nick, corporate culture determines how decisions land on the ground, whether people understand what is expected of them, and whether decisions can be revisited without fear. This corporate cultural context matters even more under pressure, Nick believes leaders have to accept that they will not always get decisions right first time and build organisations that can correct course quickly as clarity improves. take a further decision to put it right.” The role of advisers under pressure Nick is clear that some of the most substantial delays sit outside the business itself, often with external stakeholders responding to their own pressures. “Often decisions that slow us down most are where we are waiting for decisions from external stakeholders who, themselves, have their own challenges or lengthy internal processes.” “It’s the humility of knowing you’re going to get it wrong,” he said. “And the confidence to be able to In those situations, he sees experienced advisers as critical, not to take decisions away from management, but to absorb complexity, manage stakeholder tension and create the space for leadership teams to keep operating the business.
“The mid-market will do what it needs to do to survive and thrive.”
21
The Decision Economy
EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVES
“We’ve always operated in a challenging environment,” he said. “But the complexity now is greater, yet you still have to be able to make decisions quickly and stand behind them.” Decision-making is treated as an operational discipline. Internally, clarity on values, priorities, risk, cash position and delivery commitments allows the business to act with confidence, even when information is imperfect. Internal discipline enables external confidence AV Dawson, which owns and operates the Port of Middlesbrough, employs approximately 200 people and operates across a 120-acre port footprint, concentrated in Middlesbrough. Charlie emphasises the importance of strong internal project management, financial awareness and delivery discipline. Investment decisions are taken with a long- term view, recognising that infrastructure businesses such as ports, live with their choices for decades. “You have to be financially strong,” he said. “You have to be able to make decisions and follow them through.” That internal discipline is what allows the business to operate credibly with large national and international customers, funders and public bodies. In a sector where reliability matters, consistency of judgement builds trust. Pressure reveals decision quality Charlie points to the haulage market as a clear illustration of a sector that is experiencing challenges due to the slim margins that this market typically operates to and the volatility of fuel prices and the wider challenges and uncertainty in the economy. Hundreds of haulage businesses have closed down in the last couple of years as a result of these challenges. This also creates opportunity for businesses that remain resilient and are prepared to think differently.
Charlie Nettle Group MD at AV Dawson Connect on LinkedIn
Background AV Dawson is a third generation, family-owned logistics and port business based in Middlesbrough. Founded in 1938, the business has evolved from a local coal delivery operation into a fully integrated, multimodal logistics provider spanning road, rail, shipping and warehousing from a single port estate. Charlie Nettle has spent more than a decade operating inside the business and was appointed as group managing director in 2023. His perspective is shaped by running critical infrastructure in a sector defined by strain, complexity and constant interdependence. In this environment, decision- making becomes a source of competitive advantage. Operating inside complexity Charlie describes the sector as one of sustained challenge. Cost pressure, ageing workforce, labour shortages and volatile demand are compounded by the need to coordinate activity across many external parties, each with their own constraints and timescales. AV Dawson has built capability around navigating the complexity.
22
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online