Renewable energy + industrial sustainability
Tracking South Africa’s energy market transition Shailin Moodley, Chief Technology Oicer at EXSA says although South Africa’s eorts to decarbonise its energy mix significantly by 2030 have progressed since the commitment was made in 2021, momentum picked up earlier this year.
However, any major delay in the decommissioning of old coal plants without sufficient replacement capacity would raise a red flag. This could signal a lack of confidence in the new market. Continued reliance on expensive diesel peaking plants to cover the gap would also be a negative indicator. The risk of the duck/canyon curve and load shed- ding would need intentional solutions requiring advanced planning and execution. Traders are key players in a liberalised power market (con- necting generators to users, creating liquidity, and manag- ing risk), and the number of active participants in the ener- gy market is an indicator of its health. The number of licensed electricity traders and aggrega- tors could grow steadily for some time. These companies facilitate bilateral PPAs and will be the main participants in the future wholesale market – taking on the technological and operational burden of participation. Trader participation: From contracts to a competitive market In late November 2025, NERSA announced a series of decisions that, together, aim to expedite the transition to a competitive electricity market: the approval of the Market Operator Licence to enable the shift to a multi-buyer, multi -seller model, the finalised Grid Capacity Allocation Rules (GCAR) for readiness-based allocation and queue manage- ment, the constitution of the Electricity Market Advisory Forum (EMAF) to facilitate stakeholder input and expert oversight as the market is established, and the issuance of a notice of public participation on the draft Electricity Trading Rules [1] which Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has committed to have gazetted by June 2026 [2] When the sector begins offering nuanced products (such as short-term contracts, hedges, or derivatives), this will mean the market is becoming more sophisticated. The launch and successful operation of a day-ahead market by the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTC- SA) would be the first step – and a major step – involving a lot of preparatory work such as wholesale tariff restructure, trading rules, market code approval, market phasing, and vesting arrangement approval. The president’s announcement in the 2026 SONA on the intention to unbundle the NTCSA from Eskom [3] , and the funding announced weeks later in the National Budget Speech, are clear statements of intent and should pave the way for transparency and innovation in the private energy market. The state of the grid: From bottleneck to backbone The biggest technical challenge to South Africa’s transition is the grid. Its expansion rate is a critical signpost of pro- gress in the energy sector.
Shailin Moodley, EXSA.
T here was much focus on energy reform in President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address, and in the National Budget delivered by Treasury. Then in April, the Department of Electricity and Energy announced a timeline on the phasing in of the wholesale electricity market (contingent on regulatory, commercial and techni- cal enablers). Against this background Moodley flags significant chal- lenges ahead. He sets out four key signposts as markers to track South Africa’s progress on its journey to a diversified, liberalised energy market. Capacity mix: From coal to a diversified portfolio The first and most obvious signpost is the actual shift in the generation mix. Progress won’t be measured only by new megawatts, but by how the new capacity changes the over- all profile of supply. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 projects signif- icant new generation capacity by 2030, with a major focus on gas, wind, solar, and battery storage. The rapid addition of private embedded solar, particularly rooftop PV, is al- ready a strong indicator. Additionally, the IRP 2025 reflects an increase in load factor of gas-to-power plants (to 50%), indicating a potential shift in use from exclusively peaking to baseload. The broadening of the target energy mix is en- couraging. A positive marker in the scorecard for the energy transi- tion is already appearing, with new utility-scale solar and wind projects reaching financial close and beginning con- struction. The start of construction on large-scale battery storage projects is another significant indicator, as it sig- nals a move toward grid stability.
16 Electricity + Control JUNE 2026
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