Renewable energy + industrial sustainability
struggling municipal performance in the distribution sector distorts the perception of municipalities as reliable offtakers, hindering new generation. The transition to a liberalised energy market is a marathon. South Africa’s energy landscape is positioned for significant change in the next few years. Trader participation, investor sentiment, grid capacity, and diversification of the energy mix will mark progress as we forge a path to a secure, reliable, and sustainable energy future. References: [1] Nersa ramps up decision-making to enable grid access and increase market competitiveness https://www.cliedekkerhofmeyr.com/en/news/publications/2025/Sectors/ Projects-Energy/Projects-and-energy-aler-3-december-NERSA-ramps-up-deci- sion-making-to-enable-grid-access-and-increase-market-competitiveness [2] The trader’s legal landscape https://www.cliedekkerhofmeyr.com/en/news/publications/2025/Sectors/ Projects-Energy/projects-and-energy-alert-20-august-The-traders-legal-land- scape#:~:text=Legal%20framework&text=With%20the%20South%20African%20 wholesale,an%20accelerated%20three%2Dmonth%20period. [3] The 2026 Budget Speech: a defining moment for South Africa’s energy and water markets https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2026-budget-speech-defining-moment-south- africas-energy-deane-2ntyf/ [4] NTCSA Transmission Development Plan (TDP) 2024: 2025-2034 https://www.ntcsa.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/TDP-2024-Public-Re- port_Rev2.pdf [5] South Africa’s 2026 budget targets energy security, grid expansion and municipal reform https://www.greenbuildingafrica.co.za/south-africa-2026-budget-targets-en- ergy-security-grid-expansion-and-municipal-reform/#:~:text=Energy%20sec- tor%20highlights,competitive%20and%20reliable%20energy%20market.
The NTCSA’s Transmission Development Plan (TDP) 2024 [4] sets ambitious targets for new transmission lines (nearly 1 500 km per year). Consistent announcements of new transmission line projects reaching financial close and beginning construction are crucial. Additionally, despite delays and industry concern over complexities, the successful implementation of the Inde- pendent Transmission Projects Programme, attracting pri- vate investment for grid infrastructure, would be a major leap forward and a strong vote of confidence for South Afri- ca’s transition strategy. Treasury’s announcement of a new Credit Guarantee Vehicle, created in partnership with the World Bank, to encourage large-scale Investment In trans- mission Infrastructure signals momentum in the space. Ad- ditionally, government is set to start the first round of inde- pendent transmission projects this year [5] Nonetheless, delays in environmental and land-use ap- provals for new transmission lines would be a significant roadblock, beyond which infrastructure takes time to de- ploy. An inability to meet the TDP’s annual targets would mean that new renewable capacity is built in suboptimal locations and/or cannot get power to consumers, in effect stranding billions in potential investment. Everything hinges on private capital Market liberalisation is about attracting private capital, bolstered by regaining trust in the system and promoting competition. The regulatory environment and government policy will be the main drivers of investor confidence. Although competitive market positioning existed under earlier legislation, implementation of the 2024 Electricity Regulation Amendment Act further strengthens the legal framework for a competitive market. Clarity on wheeling tariffs and a transparent grid access process from NERSA are also crucial. Leveraging the Just Ener-
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gy Transition Partnership, the collaboration involving several developed markets and South Africa, will also be a key enabler. The partnership aims to support South Africa’s energy transition through initial clean energy funding projects. New legislation has been positive, but any sign of a rever- sal of policy or political push- back on the transition would negatively impact the flow of capital needed. This might be anything from another pause on private licensing to a sub- optimal market launch. A lack of transparency in the procure- ment process would also deter investors, as seen in other coun- tries. And it is important to note,
South Africa’s energy landscape is positioned for significant change in the next few years.
JUNE 2026 Electricity + Control
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