THE 7 QUESTIONS
What will be the most important housing market trend(s) in 2019 and why?
What is your outlook for new home sales and prices in 2019? Why? Implications?
ECONOMIST
2019 NEW HOME SALES
2019 NEW HOME PRICES
What will be the most important housing market trend(s) in 2019 and why?
Zandi Yun Terrazas Kiefer Kapfidze Gardner Duncan
Flat Up 11% Slow to 505,000 units (SAAR) Up 10% Down 5% Up 6.6% Up 1.2% to 630,000
Low single-digit increase N/A Down 3.8% Median down, Constant Quality Index up Down Up 3.5% Moderating gains
"Builders are still struggling with high
costs for land, labor and materials, and that will hold them back from starting significantly more homes.” - GARDNER
“Rents and house prices continue to rise strongly, outpacing income gains, creating increasingly serious affordability problems for lower and middle-income households.” - ZANDI
What is your outlook for existing home sales and prices in 2019? Why? Implications?
What is your outlook for new home sales and prices in 2019? Why? Implications?
What is your outlook for homeownership rates in 2019? Why? Implications?
ECONOMIST
2019 HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES
What is your outlook for existing home sales and prices in 2019? Why? Implications?
Zandi Yun Terrazas Kiefer Kapfidze Gardner Duncan
Unchanged Up slightly Up to 64.7% by year-end Up Up half a percentage point Up toward 65% or higher Up but at slower rate
What is your outlook for homeownership rates in 2019? Why? Implications?
ECONOMIST
2019 EXISTING HOME SALES
2019 EXISTING HOME PRICES
“The U.S. homeownership rate has ticked up in 2018 and I expect that to continue in 2019. We looked at young adult homeownership and found significant pent up demand amongst those ages 25 to 34.” - KIEFER
Zandi Yun Terrazas Kiefer Kapfidze Gardner Duncan
Flat Up 1% Down to 5.2 million units Up 1% Down 2% to 5% Down 1.6% Up slightly to 5.4 million units
Low single-digit increase Up 2% Up 1.2%
5
Where are mortgage interest rates headed
Up 4% Up 3% Up 4.4% Up 4%
in 2019? Why? Implications?
6
Do you expect a recession in 2019 or 2020, and if yes how will that impact the housing market?
While a rising interest rate environment will slow home sales, large cohorts of young adults are moving toward their core home-buying years.” - TERRAZAS
7
"The peak existing home sales market, 2017’s 5.5-million-unit sales pace, is already behind us.” - DUNCAN
How will population and job migration patterns impact regional housing trends in 2019?
74 | think realty magazine :: january / february 2019
thinkrealty . com | 75
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