Coles Research Magazine Fourth Issue | 2018
Welcome to the fourth edition of the Coles Research Magazine.
Our research mission in the Michael J. Coles College of Business focuses on excellence in research that impacts both the academic and business communities. Our nationally recognized scholars engage in research that creates new knowledge while simultaneously impacting business practice with relevant insights and innovative models. The latest edition of the Coles Research Magazine showcases this extraordinary work across a range of efforts including: two executive summaries from work conducted in our doctoral program, four Financial Times’ Top 50 journal publications, one outstanding impact journal publication, one business engagement piece, one competitive grant piece, a summer fellowship paper as well as five papers representing the best from our Coles Working Papers series. As in previous editions, we include abstracts of the research as well as important executive takeaways. Our goal is excellence in research that can be immediately accessible to our business partners. In this way, Coles faculty members make a distinctive and lasting impact on their academic communities as well as on the practice of business. The Coles College of Business focuses on top-notch education across all dimensions and our role as a knowledge creator is core to that mission. I am proud of the fact that academic and business leaders look to our faculty for the latest research and analysis. I am so pleased that we can highlight that work in the current edition of the Coles Research Magazine.
Kathy S. Schwaig Dean Michael J. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University
Table of Contents
Journal Publications - Financial Times Top 50 Corporate Governance in China: A Meta-Analysis By Canan C. Mutlu, Marc van Essen, Mike W. Peng, Sabrina F. Saleh and Patricio Duran Factors Impacting Market Concentration of Not-for-Profit Hospitals 4 6
By Jomon A. Paul, Benedikt Quosigk and Leo MacDonald Analysts’ Qualitative Statements and the Profitability of Favorable Investment Recommendations By Marcus Caylor, Mark Cecchini and Jennifer Winchel Stability Vs. Flexibility: The Effect of Regulatory Institutions on Opportunity Type By Susan L. Young, Christopher Welter and Michael Conger
Journal Publications - Outstanding Impact
Free Trade Agreements and the Consolidation of Democracy By Xuepeng Liu and Emanuel Ornelas
Conceptualizing and Measuring the Design of Retail Environments By Julie Steen, Brian N. Rutherford, Barry J. Babin and Joe F. Hair Enterprise Risk Management: The Transformation of Board-Level Engagement as Evidenced by Disclosure By Timothy L. Baker, Divesh S. Sharma and Mark Beasley
Economics Clarifies Value in Health and Education By Govind Hariharan
Modeling for the Enhancement of Learning Chemistry (Model-C): Measuring Cognitive Load & Impact of Modeling Activities Across the Chemistry Curriculum By Adriane Randolph and Kimberly Linenberger Cortes
Summer Research Fellowship
Global Value Chain Participation and Trade Policies By Xuepeng Liu
Pick your Board Wisely: CEO Outside Board Directorships and Managerial Ability By Canan C. Mutlu and Sunay Mutlu The Puzzle of Frequent and Large Issues of Debt and Equity By Rongbing Huang and Jay R. Ritter The Effect of Social Norms on Sin Stock Performance By Stephanie L. Wang and Susan L. Young How do Nonprofessional Investors Respond to Disclosure of Audit Quality Indicators? By Owen Brown and Velina Popova Local Composite Quantile Regression Smoothing: Flexible Data Structure and Cross-validation By Xiao Huang and Zhongjian Lin
26 28 30
* Coles College of Business faculty highlighted in bold.
Corporate Governance in China: A Meta-Analysis
Canan C. Mutlu, Marc van Essen, MikeW. Peng, Sabrina F. Saleh and Patricio Duran
Journal of Management Studies (forthcoming)
Overview How have “good corporate governance” principles changed firm performance in China? We conducted a meta-analysis of a database of 84 studies, 684 effect sizes, and 547,622 firm observations reported in the corporate governance literature in China. The weight of evidence associates two major principles advocating board independence and managerial incentives with better firm performance. However, we found no strong support for the criticisms of CEO duality. In addition, we went beyond a static perspective assessing certain governance mechanisms as effective or ineffective by investigating temporal hypotheses. We found that with the improved quality of market institutions and development of financial markets over time, board monitoring mechanisms and state ownership become more strongly related to firm performance, while incentive mechanisms lose their significance. Overall, our findings advance a dynamic, institution-based view substantiating the proposal that institutional transitions matter to the relationship between governance mechanisms and firm performance.
4 | Journal Publications - Financial Times Top 50
■ “Good corporate governance”mechanisms help firm performance in China. ■ Board independence and managerial incentives improve firm performance. ■ Institutional advancements over time significantly affect this relationship.
Canan C. Mutlu, Assistant Professor of Management & Entrepreneurship
Factors Impacting Market Concentration of Not-For-Profit Hospitals
Jomon A. Paul, Benedikt Quosigk and Leo MacDonald
Journal of Business Ethics (forthcoming)
Overview To provide decision support to policymakers, we used the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and data from the American Hospital Association, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and Internal Revenue Service Form 990 to identify and evaluate associations among the key characteristics of not-for-profit (NP) hospitals and market concentration. Market competitiveness has been linked to improvements in efficiency, costs, and healthcare access. We found a positive association between contributions and market concentration, which could mean that well-run NP hospitals that deliver on their mission are rewarded financially through increased contributions and increased market share. We also found a positive correlation between a higher percentage of Medicare patients and market concentration; that is, it reduces NP market competitiveness. Since Medicare reimbursement rates are approximately 80% lower than those paid by private insurers, hospitals may not choose to operate where Medicare populations are high. Further, median income is negatively associated with market concentration possibly because populations with a higher median income are in a better position to pay for services, making them an attractive potential market. Finally, we found that managers with voting rights on the board of directors have no significant impact.
6 | Journal Publications - Financial Times Top 50
■ Managers with voting rights on the board of directors do not affect an NP hospital’s competitiveness. ■ Contributions to NP hospitals are positively associated with market concentration. ■ Markets with high Medicare populations negatively affect NP hospital competition. ■ Markets with higher median income are conducive to competition.
Benedikt Quosigk, Assistant Professor of Accounting Jomon A. Paul, Professor of Quantitative Analysis Leo MacDonald, Associate Professor of Quantitative Analysis
Analysts’ Qualitative Statements and the Profitability of Favorable Investment Recommendations
Marcus Caylor, Mark Cecchini and Jennifer Winchel
Accounting, Organizations and Society, Vol. 57, (February) 2017, pp. 33-51
We use a novel machine learning text methodology that allows us to create a numerical text signal from the narrative in financial analysts’ reports with buy ratings. This text signal is the result of a text methodology which distinguishes words and phrases that are important for classifying profitable and unprofitable buy ratings in analysts’ reports. Using our text signal, we find that what analysts write actually yields important information about buy ratings’ profitability, controlling for information conveyed in the quantitative summary measures identified by prior research, such as target price and earnings forecasts. By taking long (short) positions in the top (bottom) quintile of the text signal, we developed trading strategies for twelve-month buy-and-hold portfolios that generated economically significant returns. When we further disaggregated the text signal into discrete information categories, we found that discussions of historical financial and nonfinancial performance measures have significant predictive power. Overview
8 | Journal Publications - Financial Times Top 50
■ We used a novel machine-learning methodology to mine qualitative observations in financial analysts’ reports that convey information about a company’s future performance. ■ A trading strategy using qualitative aspects of financial analysts’ reports generates positive returns. ■ Historical financial and nonfinancial performance discussions provide the most predictive power.
Marcus Caylor, Associate Professor of Accounting
Stability Vs. Flexibility: the Effect of Regulatory Institutions on Opportunity Type
Susan L. Young, Christopher Welter and Michael Conger
Journal of International Business Studies (forthcoming)
Institutional environments vary widely across countries, making them challenging to navigate, especially for new ventures. How do their inherent risk and uncertainty affect the type of entrepreneurial opportunities pursued in a particular country? Though risk and uncertainty are distinct—risk, but not uncertainty, can be estimated—the literature often treat these terms as interchangeable, and rarely considers their dual influence. Here, we introduce a new theoretical model based on institutional economics that describes how institutional arrangements promoting stability and the ability to assess risk lead to more imitative opportunities, while those promoting flexibility and the ability to respond to uncertainty foster more innovative opportunities. We tested this framework using data on 40 countries and found that protection of property rights and relatively transparent taxation policies promote institutional stability and imitative ventures, while flexible labor choices, access to efficient capital markets, and permissive business regulations promote flexibility and innovation. Our results can inform government actions either to stimulate new industries or grow existing industries and spur competition. Additionally, by treating risk and uncertainty as distinct constructs, our study also makes theoretical contributions to research on institutional environments and different opportunity types. Overview
10 | Journal Publications - Financial Times Top 50
■ Entrepreneurial opportunities exist on a continuum from imitative to innovative. ■ Risk and uncertainty are distinct, with different implications for a firm’s decisionmaking. ■ Stability-enhancing laws lower transaction costs, but all firms have the same options. ■ Flexibility-enhancing laws increase transaction costs but extend the range of options. ■ Our novel country-level framework clarifies how risk and uncertainty are viewed internally, especially by multinational firms.
Susan L. Young, Assistant Professor of Management & Entrepreneurship
Free Trade Agreements and the Consolidation of Democracy
Xuepeng Liu and Emanuel Ornelas
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 6, No. 2 (April 2014), pp. 29-70
Trade protection for weak domestic producers encourages rent-seeking and inefficiency. Free trade agreements (FTAs) can bind the hands of incumbent politicians and serve as commitment devices to destroy future protectionist rents. Such rents are attractive to autocratic groups that stand to benefit for a long time; FTAs can reduce their incentives to seek power in unstable or fledgling democracies, which can then consolidate. This ground-breaking paper was published in the American Economic Journal and presented at many prestigious academic conferences, such as the annual meeting of the American Economic Association (AEA), and top universities, such as MIT and Princeton. It has been cited frequently and was highlighted on the AEA website, the World Trade Organization (WTO) website, and the leading academic blog VoxEU.org (18,713 reads as of December 2017). The authors have received many emails about it from other economists, commentators, and policymakers around the world. For example, a Chief Economist of the World Bank reached out to them for comments after the Arab Spring on how FTAs might help to promote peace and strengthen democracy in the region. The paper was then distributed through regional offices in the Middle East and North Africa.
12 | Journal Publications - Outstanding Impact
■ Trade barriers protect weak domestic producers and encourage rent-seeking. ■ FTAs serve as commitment devices to curb protection and destroy protectionist rents. ■ Autocratic groups, often in power for a long time, benefit from protection, so FTAs can lower their incentives to seek power in fledgling democracies.
Xuepeng Liu, Professor of Economics
Conceptualizing and Measuring the Design of Retail Environments
Julie Steen (DBA Graduate), Brian N. Rutherford (Dissertation Chair), Barry J. Babin (Second Supervisor) and Joe F. Hair (Reader)
In the current business climate, some retailers struggle to stay relevant and competitive. Research suggests that a store’s environment heavily influences consumer behavior, including the amount of money spent. Retail environments are assessed along three dimensions: ambient, social, and design. Marketing researchers have investigated the ambient dimension for over forty years and, more recently, turned their attention to the social dimension, but the design dimension has been relatively overlooked. The literature has not yet proposed a definition or a measurement scale. This study addresses these shortcomings in three ways. First, based on the marketing and architecture literatures, it develops a conceptual definition of retail environment design (RED) as multisensory, preplanned, and difficult to change, with four facets: functionality, aesthetic qualities, lighting, and signage. Second, the study develops the 20-item retail environment design (RED) scale for measuring each of the four facets. Finally, the scale is found to be nomologically valid. The outcome is a reliable and valid scale that can be used in future research and by retailers seeking to remain relevant and competitive.
14 | DBA Summaries
■ Consumers perceive the design of retail environments as having four distinct facets. ■ The four facets include: functionality, aesthetics, signage, and lighting. ■ Retailers can use the 20-item RED scale to better understand consumer perceptions. ■ Retailers can use the RED scale as an aid in developing compelling environments.
Brian N. Rutherford, Associate Professor of Marketing & Professional Sales Julie Steen, DBA Graduate
Enterprise Risk Management: the Transformation of Board-Level Engagement as Evidenced by Disclosure Timothy L. Baker (DBA Graduate), Divesh S. Sharma (Dissertation Chair), and Mark Beasley (Second Supervisor)
The benefit of investing in enterprise risk management (ERM) practices is controversial. This study developed a novel tool - the board-level ERM engagement index (BODERMX) - to determine the value of board oversight of ERM practices at S&P 500 firms to various stakeholders. Higher BODERMX values indicate more robust ERM practices. The index reveals associations between the extent of board engagement in ERM and (i) earnings volatility, (ii) firm valuation, and (iii) the pricing of external audit services. Regression results indicate that BODERMX is not significantly related to external audit fees but significantly negatively associated with earnings volatility and |firm valuation (Tobin’s Q). Collectively, they suggest that firms that invest in board-level ERM practices reduce the risk of wide earnings fluctuations over time; hence, investors who attach lower value to them are mistaken, while auditors are indifferent. Clearly, these practices have differential value across stakeholders.
16 | DBA Summaries
■ Robust enterprise risk management can decrease an organization’s earnings volatility. ■ Stakeholders may not fully appreciate the value of ERM. ■ Ongoing communication and education about the purposes and value of ERM are necessary.
Timothy L. Baker, DBA Graduate Divesh S. Sharma, Professor of Accounting
Economics Clarifies Value in Health and Education
A true exemplar in integrating scholarship, teaching, and service, Dr. Govind Hariharan has examined a broad range of topics in healthcare and public policy. His research achievements have been acknowledged by the Stephen Ross Award and selection as a Classic in Risk Management. He is a founding board member of the WellStar Institute for Better Health and served on the WellStar Research Integration Working Group and the WellStar-KSU Partnership Planning Committee. He continues to partner with WellStar on research grant proposals and co-authored studies on global healthcare, and he hosts his colleagues as guest lecturers in his classes. Among his many other contributions, Professor Hariharan has served on the board of the American Diabetes Association; government task forces on healthcare; and the Industry Advisory Group of the Georgia Department of Revenue.
18 | Business Engagement
■ Economics clarifies the analysis of complicated healthcare problems. ■ The lack of agreement on outcomes/value and measurement and challenging revenue, cost, and reform proposals make healthcare and education almost identical twins. ■ Through innovative partnerships and thinking outside the box, health and educational organizations with similar missions can meet their challenges.
Govind Hariharan, Professor of Economics
Modeling for the Enhancement of Learning Chemistry (Model-C): Measuring Cognitive Load & Impact of Modeling Activities Across the Chemistry Curriculum
Adriane Randolph and Kimberly Linenberger Cortes
Dr. Adriane Randolph (Department of Information Systems) and Dr. Kimberly Linenberger Cortes (Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry) in collaboration with faculty at the University of Minnesota Rochester received a grant from the National Science Foundation for their research investigating how to better design 3D modeling activities in chemistry. This research tracks what students pay attention to and how they cognitively process the 3D modeling activities using eye-tracking tools and electroencephalography (EEG). The results will help instructors better design these resources to provide for maximum capacity for learning the material and therefore decrease the frustrations involved in not knowing what to take away from these innovative instructional practices. This work represents a novel approach by using neurophysiological tools to complement traditional methods to uncover the thought processes of students. Specifically for Co-PI Randolph, this work directly relates to her use of neurophysiological tools to investigate differences in novice and experts in various settings and her development of an EEG-based brain-computer interface (BCI) tool to capture real-time measures of cognitive load. The grant awarded under the Improving Undergraduate STEM Education: Education and Human Resources (IUSE: EHR) division is titled, “Collaborative Research: Modeling for the Enhancement of Learning Chemistry (ModEL-C): Measuring cognitive load & impact of modeling activities across the chemistry curriculum,” and spans three years. Overview
20 | Research Grant
■ Identify how and when students learn using 3D models in chemistry. ■ Use neurophysiological tools to model cognitive load of biochemistry learners. ■ Revise instructional materials based on learning capacity of students. ■ Investigate the evolving brains of biochemistry students with changes in curriculum. ■ Contribute to knowledge about undergraduate STEM learners.
Adriane Randolph, Associate Professor of Information Systems
Global Value Chain Participation and Trade Policies
In today’s world economy, production fragmentation allows more in-depth specialization, and allocating segments of a process across countries generates greater efficiency than traditional trade. This new development allows a country to join a supply chain by producing a component rather than an entire product. Countries in East Asia, for example, have enjoyed fast economic growth in recent decades partly because many of their firms are indispensable links in global value chains (GVCs). However, product fragmentation sometimes requires intermediate goods to cross national borders several times. If tariffs apply at each crossing, they quickly compound. In addition, tariffs may be applied to gross imports, even though value added by the direct exporter accounts for only a fraction of this amount. Joining GVCs is critical for an economy’s success, so proper trade policies should be in place. In this project, we investigate how trade policies affect a country’s global value chain participation (GVCPt) and export and economic performance. First, we will analyze China’s trade policies and then study how other countries, including developed countries, should design policies to help firms to integrate further into GVCs to compete globally.
22 | Summer Research Fellowship
■ Product fragmentation allows nations to specialize in particular stages without completing an entire product. ■ Product fragmentation may require intermediate goods to cross borders many times. ■ Nations gain from joining global value chains, and trade barriers should be lowered to encourage firms to join them.
Xuepeng Liu, Professor of Economics
Pick Your Board Wisely: CEO Outside Board Directorships and Managerial Ability
Canan C. Mutlu and Sunay Mutlu
Coles Working Paper Series, FALL17-04, November 2017
Overview Do serving on outside boards advance CEO managerial ability? Against the backdrop of continuous debates on the value of CEO outside board directorships, we propose that outside board service limits CEO managerial ability in recent times because of the increasing executive job demands, heightened directorial responsibilities, and the changing nature of the corporate elite network. However, this adverse effect might be mitigated by the insights and resources provided by the host board and the home board’s monitoring and alignment mechanisms.
24 | Working Papers
■ CEO outside directorships may lead to overcommitment. ■ The value of outside directorships depends on host and home board characteristics. ■ Host board capital matters as the resource provision potential of the host board might contribute to CEO managerial ability. ■ Effective home boards monitor the CEO’s decision to sit on value-adding boards.
Sunay Mutlu, Assistant Professor of Accounting Canan C. Mutlu, Assistant Professor of Management & Entrepreneurship
The Puzzle of Frequent and Large Issues of Debt and Equity
Rongbing Huang and Jay R. Ritter
Coles Working Paper Series, SPRING18-05, March 2018
Overview Nobel laureate in Economics Eugene Fama and his frequent co-author Kenneth French identify five important factors that describe stock return variations: the market factor and return spreads based on the firm’s size, growth status, profitability, and investment spending. We found that more frequent and larger external debt or equity financings in the prior three years were followed by lower stock returns in the subsequent year. Specifically, after controlling for the five factors, a value-weighted portfolio of firms with at least three large external financings underperformed other firms by 0.64% per month. To understand the magnitude of the underperformance, assume $1,000 invested in the market portfolio yields 1% per month, returns over the subsequent year and the next ten years would be $127 and $2,300, respectively. If $1,000 is invested in a portfolio of firms with at least three large external financings that yields 0.36% per month, returns would be only $44 and $539, respectively. A Fama-MacBeth regression that controls for several firm characteristics shows that firms with three external debt financings underperformed firms with no external financing by 0.62% per month, and firms with three external equity financings underperformed by 1.25%. Investors were disappointed at the earnings announcements following frequent external financings, especially equity financings. These patterns indicate that firms successfully raised external capital when their stocks were overvalued.
26 | Working Papers
■ Over 10% of all firm-years were preceded by at least 3 external debt or equity financings. ■ Firms with no external financing for 3 years had an average return of 21.1% the next year. ■ Following at least 3 external financings, the average annual return was only 4.9%. ■ Following at least 3 external equity financings, the average annual return was only -8.3%.
Rongbing Huang, Professor of Finance
The Effect of Social Norms on Sin Stock Performance
Stephanie Lu Wang and Susan L. Young
Coles Working Paper Series, SPRING18-06, March 2018
Overview The current negative perception of sin stocks, or stocks of companies involved in gambling, tobacco, or alcohol, evolved over the last century. Much of the literature assumes that once legitimacy criteria are established, they are static and that definitions of desirable or appropriate behavior are clear. Although prior research suggests that both institutional pressure and organizational efforts shape firms’ legitimacy, few have examined whether these effects persist or decay over the long term. Using the “Triumvirate of Sin” industries as a natural experiment, we examined how a sample of 148 stocks from 1978 to 2014 responded to changing social norms in the context of institutional theory. We found that when social norms against smoking, drinking, and gambling are high, sin stocks have lower than expected value, but firms can employ different strategies to mitigate damage to their legitimacy and improve performance; specifically, by engaging in corporate philanthropy as a distracting technique or decoupling themselves from perceived illegitimacy by diversifying into “non-sin” industries.
28 | Working Papers
■ A firm is deemed legitimate if it pursues socially acceptable goals in a socially acceptable manner. ■ Changing social norms can affect investor perceptions to help or hinder firm performance. ■ Firms can manage societal perception through distraction and decoupling.
Susan L. Young, Assistant Professor of Management & Entrepreneurship
How Do Nonprofessional Investors Respond to Disclosure of Audit Quality Indicators?
Owen Brown and Velina Popova
Coles Working Paper Series, FALL17-03, November 2017
Overview Both US and international standard setters have sponsored initiatives to develop a reliable portfolio of audit quality indicators (AQIs). Their primary goal is to provide new insights into how to evaluate audit quality and, critically, how to achieve high-quality audits. We designed an experiment to determine how nonprofessional investors, a primary beneficiary of the financial reporting process, respond to auditor-disclosed AQIs. Participants received quantitative information about either a positive or negative trend in the AQI data, and in some cases, auditors added a qualitative contextual narrative. We found that investors receiving a positive-trending AQI portfolio were more favorably disposed toward the auditor and more likely to ratify the selection of their company’s auditor and voluntarily increase their equity investment in the company than those who received negative-trending portfolios. In addition, a positive-trending AQI portfolio had more influence on investor decisionmaking when accompanied by a qualitative discussion about context. Our findings should interest regulators and standard setters as they consider how to advance the dialogue on AQIs and the best way to disseminate AQI data.
30 | Working Papers
■ Investors are more likely to retain an auditor if AQI trends are positive rather than negative. ■ AQI trend affects investors’ voluntary equity investment in the company. ■ Qualitative discussion has more impact when accompanying positive rather than negative AQIs.
Velina Popova, Assistant Professor of Accounting
Local Composite Quantile Regression Smoothing: Flexible Data Structure and Cross-validation
Xiao Huang and Zhongjian Lin
Coles Working Paper Series, SPRING18-04, March 2018
Overview This paper examines local polynomial regression based on averaging different quantile estimates for both continuous and categorical variables, such as gender and race. Local polynomial regression is widely used to model nonlinear patterns in the data. The proposed estimator can improve estimation efficiency by averaging different quantile estimates. It is applicable to cases whenever we need to estimate a regression function and the data exhibit nonlinearity. We also propose a data-driven method to select bandwidths to further improve the estimator.
32 | Working Papers
■ Our nonparametric method captures nonlinear patterns in both continuous and categorical data. ■ The method improves estimation accuracy and can be used as a general approach to exploring complex data structures due to nonlinearity and discontinuity.
Xiao Huang, Professor of Economics
Special thanks to the following faculty and committees for their significant contributions to the Coles Research Magazine.
Coles Working Paper Series
Editors: Jomon Paul ■ Rajaram Veliyath
Editorial Board: Amy Henley ■ Aniruddha Bagchi ■ Ann Gillette ■ Canan Mutlu Divesh Sharma ■ Huan Ni ■ Humayun Zafar ■ Jennifer Hutchins JC Bradbury ■ Jesse Schwartz ■ Leo MacDonald ■ Lucy Ackert Marcus Caylor ■ Maria Kalamas ■ Rongbing Huang ■ Stacy Campbell Sunay Mutlu ■ Sweta Sneha ■ Velina Popova ■ Vineeta Sharma Xiao Huang ■ Xuepeng Liu ■ Zhaoguo Zhan Research and Development Committee Aniruddha Bagchi ■ Benedikt Quosigk ■ Jennifer Hutchins Kamal Fatehi ■ Leo MacDonald ■ Mona Siha ■ Muhammad Obeidat Reza Vaezi ■ Saurabh Gupta ■ Sunay Mutlu Summer Research Fellowship Committee Jomon Paul ■ Marcus Caylor Maria Kalamas ■ Saurabh Gupta ■ Michael Maloni
DBA Program Academic Director: Brian Rutherford
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