SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
period from January 2014 through January 2024, 91 drought impacts were noted for the State of North Carolina, of which 7 were reported to affect Wake County. Table 4.22 summarizes the number of impacts reported by category and the years impacts were reported for each category. Note that the Drought Impact Reporter assigns multiple categories to each impact. Table 4.22 – Drought Impacts Reported for Wake County, January 2014 through January 2024 Category Impacts Years Reported Agriculture 1 2019 Fire 4 2019, 2021 Plants & Wildlife 1 2019 Relief, Response & Restrictions 6 2017, 2019,2021 Society & Public Health 0 Water Supply & Quality 2 2017, 2012 Source: Drought Impact Reporter Dashboard, NDMC Drought Impact Reporter (arcgis.com)
PROBABILITY OF FUTURE OCCURRENCE
Probability: 3 – Likely
Over the 25-year (1,303 week) period from 1998 through 2023, Wake County experienced 514 weeks of drought conditions ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. This equates to a 39 percent chance of drought in any given week. Of this time, approximately 118 weeks were categorized as a severe (D2) drought or greater; which equates to an 9 percent chance of severe drought in any given week. CLIMATE CHANGE The Fifth National Climate Assessment reports that the risk of temperature extremes is increasing while the timing of precipitation is changing to drier conditions during spring and summer. Heavy precipitation events are becoming more frequent, meaning that there will likely be an increase in the average number of consecutive dry days. As temperature is projected to continue rising, evaporation rates are expected to increase, resulting in decreased surface soil moisture levels. Together, these factors suggest that drought will increase in intensity and duration in the Southeast. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES AND ASSUMPTIONS Vulnerability to drought in Wake County is based on historical occurrences of drought in the planning area and generalized concerns regarding potential drought consequences. Agricultural vulnerability was estimated using data from the USDA Risk Management Agency Claims and a review of past claims related to drought. PEOPLE Drought can affect people’s physical and mental health. For those economically dependent on a reliable water supply, drought may cause anxiety or depression about economic losses, reduced incomes, and other employment impacts. Conflicts may arise over water shortages. People may be forced to pay more for water, food, and utilities affected by increased water costs. Drought may also cause health problems due to poorer water quality from lower water levels. If accompanied by extreme heat, drought can also result in higher incidents of heat stroke and even loss of human life.
Wake County, NC Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
WSP June 2024 Page 102
Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator