SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
The planning team also evaluated earthquake risk with FEMA’s Hazus software using a probabilistic scenario for an earthquake with a 250-year return period. Per this analysis, a 250-year earthquake would cause an estimated $126.8 million in building related damages. The results of the Hazus loss estimate are summarized in Table 4.32. Table 4.32 – Hazus Building-Related Loss Estimates, 250-year Probabilistic Earthquake Scenario
Residential
Single Family
Area
Other
Commercial
Industrial
Others
Total
Structural
$23,974,600 $1,757,900
$9,400,300
$1,827,700
$3,642,400
$40,602,900
Non-Structural $45,968,500
$6,511,600
$12,361,200
$1,962,500
$6,285,400
$73,089,200
Content
$5,593,900 $1,039,600
$2,975,300
$900,000
$1,581,900
$12,090,700
Inventory
$0
$0
$729,900
$180,000
$131,700
$1,041,600
Total
$75,537,000 $9,309,100
$25,466,700
$4,870,200
$11,641,400
$126,824,400
Source: Hazus version 6.1
ENVIRONMENT An earthquake is unlikely to cause substantial impacts to the natural environment in Wake County. Impacts to the built environment (e.g. ruptured gas line) could damage the surrounding environment. However, this type of damage is unlikely based on historical occurrences.
CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS
Table 4.33 summarizes the potential negative consequences of earthquake. Table 4.33 – Consequence Analysis - Earthquake Category Consequences Public
Impact expected to be severe for people who are unprotected or unable to take shelter; moderate to light impacts are expected for those who are protected. Responders may be required to enter unstable structures or compromised infrastructure. Adverse impacts are expected to be severe for unprotected personnel and moderate to light for protected personnel. Damage to facilities/personnel in the area of the incident may require relocation of operations and lines of succession execution. Disruption of lines of communication and destruction of facilities may extensively postpone delivery of services. Damage to facilities and infrastructure in the area of the incident may be extensive for facilities, people, infrastructure, and HazMat. May cause extensive damage, creating denial or delays in the use of some areas. Remediation may be needed. Local economy and finances expected to be adversely affected, possibly for an extended period of time. Ability to respond and recover may be questioned and challenged if planning, response, and recovery are not timely and effective.
Responders
Continuity of Operations (including Continued Delivery of Services)
Property, Facilities and Infrastructure
Environment
Economic Condition of the Jurisdiction Public Confidence in the Jurisdiction’s Governance
Wake County, NC Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
WSP June 2024 Page 117
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