SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
Ebola, 2014-2016 – In March 2014, West Africa experienced the largest outbreak of Ebola in history. Wide spread transmission was found in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea with the number of cases totaling 28,616 and the number of deaths totaling 11,310. In the United States, four cases of Ebola were confirmed in 2014 including a medical aid worker returning to New York from Guinea, two healthcare workers at Texas Presbyterian Hospital who provided care for a diagnosed patient, and the diagnosed patient who traveled to Dallas, Texas from Liberia. All three healthcare workers recovered. The diagnosed patient passed away in October 2014. In March 2016, the WHO terminated the public health emergency for the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), 2020 – The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the only disaster declaration (DR-4487-NC) for an infectious disease event in the 21st century for North Carolina. COVID-19 was caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2). First identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the virus quickly spread throughout China and then globally. Per the North Carolina Department of Health and Humana Services (NCDHHS), COVID-19 was first reported in North Carolina in March 2020. NCDHHS archived its COVID-19 data dashboards in Spring of 2023. As of May 10, 2023, there had been over 3.5 million reported cases of COVID-19 and over 29,000 deaths in North Carolina. As of April 26, 2023, 68% of the North Carolina population had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Per the State Hazard Mitigation Plan, COVID-19 mitigation measures such as wearing face masks, staying home, hand washing, school closures, reduce travel, increased ventilation of indoor spaces, and physical distancing likely contributed to a decline in the incidence of illness, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 and other contagious diseases. This includes a profound reduction in influenza cases in North Carolina, from 186 deaths from influenza in the 2019-2020 season to seven deaths from influenza in the 2020-2021 season. PROBABILITY OF FUTURE OCCURRENCE It is difficult to predict the future probability or impact of infectious diseases. The CDC continually monitors and assesses pandemic threats and prepares for an influenza pandemic. The most common and probable pandemic or endemic disease in the state has shown to be influenza; based on historical data, it is relatively unlikely (between 1 and 33.3 percent annual probability) that North Carolina will experience an outbreak of infectious diseases in the near future. Novel influenza A viruses with pandemic potential include Asian lineage avian influenza A (H5N1) and (H7N9) viruses. These viruses have all been evaluated using the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) to assess their potential pandemic risk. Because the CDC cannot predict how severe a future pandemic will be, advance planning is needed at the national, state and local level; this planning is done through public health partnerships at the national, state and local level.
Probability: 1 – Unlikely CLIMATE CHANGE
According to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the influences of climate change on public health are significant and varied. The influences range from the clear threats of temperature extremes and severe storms to less obvious connections related to insects. Climate and weather can also affect water and food quality in particular areas, with implications for public health. Hot days can be unhealthy — even dangerous. High air temperatures can cause heat stroke and dehydration and affect people’s cardiovascular and nervous systems. Heat stress is expected to increase as climate change brings hotter summer temperatures and more humidity. Certain people are especially vulnerable, including children, the elderly, the sick, and the poor. Higher temperatures and wetter conditions tend to increase mosquito and tick activity, leading to an increased risk of zoonotic diseases. Mosquitos are known to carry diseases such as West Nile virus
Wake County, NC Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
WSP June 2024 Page 178
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