SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
(WNV), La Crosse/California encephalitis, Jamestown Canyon virus, St. Louis encephalitis, and Eastern equine encephalitis. The two major concerns associated with warmer and wetter conditions are that the mosquito species already found in North Carolina and the diseases that they carry will become more prevalent, and that new species carrying unfamiliar diseases will start to appear for the first time. Warmer winters with fewer hard freezes in areas that already see WNV-carrying mosquitos are likely to observe both a higher incidence of WNV and a longer WNV season, ultimately leading to an increase in human cases. Non-native mosquito species may move into North Carolina if the climate becomes more suitable for them, bringing with them diseases such as Jamestown Canyon virus, Chikungunya, and Dengue Fever. Ticks are also well-known disease vectors in North Carolina, carrying pathogens such as Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, Ehrlichiosis, Powassan virus, and Babesiosis, and could be affected by changing temperatures. Communities must contend with the human health impacts related to the increased prevalence of infectious diseases. Public health officials will need to focus on spreading information and enacting pest and disease reduction. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGIES AND ASSUMPTIONS
Vulnerability to infectious disease was assessed based on past occurrences nationally and internationally as well as publicly available information on these vulnerabilities.
PEOPLE Disease spread and mortality is affected by a variety of factors, including virulence, ease of spread, aggressiveness of the virus and its symptoms, resistance to known antibiotics and environmental factors. While every pathogen is different, diseases normally have the highest mortality rate among the very young, the elderly or those with compromised immune systems. As an example, the unusually deadly 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic had a mortality rate of 20%. If an influenza pandemic does occur, it is likely that many age groups would be seriously affected. The greatest risks of hospitalization and death — as seen during the last two pandemics in 1957 and 1968 as well as during annual outbreaks of influenza — will be to infants, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions. However, in the 1918 pandemic, most deaths occurred in young adults. Few people would have immunity to a new virus. Approximately twenty percent of people exposed to West Nile Virus through a mosquito bite develop symptoms related to the virus; it is not transmissible from one person to another. Preventive steps can be taken to reduce exposure to mosquitos carrying the virus; these include insect repellent, covering exposed skin with clothing and avoiding the outdoors during twilight periods of dawn and dusk, or in the evening when the mosquitos are most active. PROPERTY For the most part, property itself would not be impacted by a human disease epidemic or pandemic. However, as concerns about contamination increase, property may be quarantined or destroyed as a precaution against spreading illness. Staffing shortages could affect the function of critical facilities.
ENVIRONMENT A widespread pandemic would not have an impact on the natural environment unless the disease was transmissible between humans and animals. However, affected areas could result in denial or delays in the
Wake County, NC Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
WSP June 2024 Page 179
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