SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
PROBABILITY OF FUTURE OCCURRENCE The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment provides a Burn Probability analysis which predicts the probability of an area burning based on landscape conditions, weather, historical ignition patterns, and historical fire prevention and suppression efforts. Burn Probability data is generated by simulating fires under different weather, fire intensity, and other conditions. Values in the Burn Probability (BP) data layer indicate, for each pixel, the number of times that cell was burned by a modeled fire, divided by the total number of annual weather scenarios simulated. The simulations are calibrated to historical fire size distributions. The Burn Probability for Wake County is presented in Table 4.126 and illustrated in Figure 4.32. Table 4.126 – Burn Probability, Wake County
Class
Acres
Percent
1
147,060 125,549 59,553 25,445
39.8 % 34.0 % 16.1 % 6.9 % 3.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 100.0 %
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
11,784
0 0 0 0 0
10
Total
369,391
Source: Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment
Wake County, NC Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
WSP June 2024 Page 237
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