MARKETS & TRENDS
HOT MARKET
Market Spotlight: Jacksonville FL GREAT FUNDAMENTALS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
by Fred Heigold III with RentRange® - A leading provider of market data and analytics for the single-family rental (SFR) housing industry
here are many positives for the Jacksonville market for 2021 and future years. Jacksonville home prices
November 2020, up over 7.5 percent year-over-year. Own - ers in the area have realized a five-year increase of 34 per - cent and a 10-year surge in prices of over 56 percent. New listing inventory has been steadily declining month over month since April, and total active inventory has plunged by nearly 45 percent lower than November of 2019. Areas to the northwest of the St. Johns river have lower median prices for single-family homes near $200k, lead - ing to many high yield opportunities for investors. The most expensive areas between Jacksonville Beach and St. Augustine starting around $400k to well above $1M+ near the coastline.
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will continue to rise in 2021, with the largest appreciation in the lower price tier. The historically low interest rates will continue to motivate buyers to compete for limited inventory. Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain low until 2022, but signs of inflation are beginning to show which could cause the FED to raise rates earlier than expected. HOME PRICEMETRICS The median home value in Jacksonville was $270,000 in
Jacksonville MSA Home Price Forecast through 2021
DOWNSIDE RISKS:
UPSIDE POTENTIAL:
Winter spike in COVID-19 cases leading to business restrictions, drop in travel & entertainment industries Forbearance period ending, increase in supply First-time home-buyer attrition Inflation causing the FED to raise rates earlier than expected leading to increase in mortgage interest rates Higher than average crime rate with in the bottom 10 percent of U.S. metros The Jags (yeesh!) Many higher paying job industries have nearly recovered from pre-COVID levels due to flexibility of work-from- home. Real (non-stimulus) income is expected to stay flat or possibly decrease slightly as businesses recalibrate from a tough year.
Low interest rates signaled to continue to 2022 Low inventory & high demand for SFR Extension of forbearance programs will limit inventory Low cost of living Attractive business environment for relocations
Inward population migration, a strong job market and years of under-building signal continuing demand pressure to support prices. Current average days-on-market is only 45 days and listings vs sales show an 8-year low of less than two months of inventory on the market at the end of 2020.
68 | think realty magazine :: february 2021
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