RENTALRATES As of November 2020, the median three-bed - room, SFR home in the Jacksonville MSA is $1,480/mo, an increase of 6.3 percent from last year. Real estate investors in the Jacksonville market have had strong SFR rent price appre - ciation over the last five years with an average increase near 26 percent. Rental appreciation is among the top performing markets, and is very healthy for median wage growth to be slightly higher than rent increases. Areas east of the St. Johns River have many of the largest 5-year increases, and several sub-markets have seen rental prices rise over 35 percent. The market-level rent-to-income ratio is at 29.5 percent, which is just below the national average of 32 percent for metro MSAs. Only a few areas close to downtown and along the coastline by St. Augustine have areas which are becoming unaf - fordable with R/I ratios over 40 percent. Gross Rental yields for single-family properties average 9.8 percent for the metro, with many sub-market areas well above 10 percent. Congress included $25 billion in renter’s assis - tance with the December stimulus package, which will be distributed to the states and distributed as they see fit. Once carved up, this may only help a small portion of renters for a temporary fix. 2021 SFR Rent Price Forecast: 0 percent to +3 percent
JACKSONVILLE FACTS
POPULATION
The fourth largest metro in the state of Florida with nearly 1.56 million residents, Jacksonville has been growing by an average of 27,000 resi - dents per year, with a five-year population increase of over 10 percent.
JOB MARKET
Prior to COVID-19, the Jacksonville job market had been increasing steadily, adding around 10,000 new jobs per year. As of November, the Jacksonville metro had recovered 70 percent of the jobs lost compared to the lows in April, primarily lagging in the Leisure and Hospitality sector, versus the pre-COVID peak in February 2020, higher wage jobs in Financial Services have nearly recovered completely. The Jacksonville MSA economy is the 47th largest in the U.S. by GDP. The metro has a large cohort of trade/transportation, education and health services, and professional services jobs. The region boasts the leading transportation and distribution hub in the state of Florida, and JAXPORT’s 3-marine terminal location provides a central hub for shippers and retailers to reach a market of more than 70 million consumers within a one-day truck drive. Jacksonville has a pro-business government with a low corporate tax rate of just 4.458 percent (reduced from 5.5 percent) in the state of Florida. Low regulation and these type of tax incentives encourage business relocation to the area and future job growth.
INCOME
The median household income of $65,880 is slightly below the national median income of $68,700. However, workers in the state of Florida (including Jacksonville) do not have income tax, so may take home higher post-tax wages. One-year median household income is up a significant 9.3 percent between 2018- 2019, and up over 28 percent for the last five years as more high-wage jobs enter the market. Information and statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data, Department of Labor report, Census/ACS Tables and RentRange® data sources.
Jacksonville MSA Rent Price Forecast through 2021
DOWNSIDE RISKS:
High unemployment rates in lower-wage industries (renters) Eviction moratorium ending Jan 31, 2021, causing high vacancy rates and lower “qualified” renter pool Limited government stimulus Christmas/winter spike in COVID-19 cases leading to business restrictions and more possible layoffs in lower income industries
Jacksonville, FL 15-Year Index: 2005 to Current
40%
Legend
Employment Change Household Income
35%
Home Value Rental Price
30%
25%
20%
UPSIDE POTENTIAL:
15%
High demand for SFR New government stimulus and unemployment benefit extension Population & job growth driving demand Rapid recovery in most job sectors 2 Military bases provide quality long term renters with consistent income Landlord friendly
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
70 | think realty magazine :: february 2021
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