In 2020, SFR rents have continued to appreciate, thanks in part to the federal stimulus and squeezed inventory from eviction moratoria and tenants re-signing leases. Rental affordability is still reasonable in most areas of Jackson - ville. SFR rentals will continue to have a demand advantage over multifamily as families relocate from cramped multi - family structures. Increased evictions will add to vacancies and reduce overall demand. Depending how quickly the courts can pro - cess evictions, this could add a significant amount of vacant rental inventory in a short amount of time. Once the evic - tion moratorium ends, a new challenge will be the reduced pool of “qualified” renters without eviction or recent job loss. Landlords may have to lower their requirements, and reduce prices to fill vacancies. 2021 SFR Rent Price Forecast: 0 percent to +3 percent CONCLUSIONS Jacksonville is still affordable for renters and buyers, and offers many positive signals of future performance including: job growth and wage increases, low cost of living, favorable tax environment, beaches, parks, good weather, and the location has much lower hurricane risk than many other areas in Florida. Jacksonville is a major transporta -
tion and shipping hub, which will only continue to grow with consumers shifting towards e-commerce delivery. Forward looking investors should plan for a deluge of inventory in 2021. The current demand in Jacksonville may absorb most of the distressed inventory and limit any down - side in prices. Owners have a record amount of equity built up, and there are now a myriad of government programs to protect borrowers and mitigate another foreclosure crisis. Once forbearance programs end, we expect home prices to flat - ten or moderately drop with the increase in inventory. The largest concern for home prices may be 2+ years away, when the FED begins to raise interest rates again. Even if there is a moderate pullback in home prices over the next few years, we don’t foresee a large crash occurring. Bottom line, Jacksonville is a steadily growing market with a resilient and diverse economy, which will bounce back after the pandemic abates. Due to the higher-than-av - erage crime rate, it is important to conduct thorough research and consult with local experts to find safe and desirable neighborhoods to invest in. •
Fred Heigold III is the senior data analyst at Altisource® / RentRange®, an industry leader inmarket data and analytics for the single-family rental housing industry.
thinkrealty . com | 71
Made with FlippingBook Online newsletter