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projects that have potential to connect to the Bulk Electric System (BES). A much lower projection is expected for solar DER over this same 5 year period. SERC Central expects to add approximately 4,000 MW of new generation over the 10-year planning horizon, predominantly with variable energy resources. Additionally, SERC Central is planning to retire approximately 2,250 MW of coal and gas generators. Coal supplies about 1/3 of the capacity in SERC Central in 2020. Natural gas and nuclear provide 39 percent and 17 percent of SERC Central’s capacity, respectively. Hydro and pumped storage provide 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively, for summer peak. Approximately 197 miles of new transmission lines in the SERC Central assessment area are in the design/construction phase, and are projected to enhance system reliability by supporting voltage and relieving challenging flows. Other projects include adding new extra high voltage transformers, reconductoring existing transmission lines, and other system reconfigurations/additions to support transmission system reliability. Entities in SERC Central do not anticipate any transmission limitations/constraints with significant impacts to reliability.
State of Reliability of SERC Central
Anticipated Reserve Margins for the SERC Central subregion are expected to remain above the Reference Reserve Margin for the next 10 years. The SERC Central assessment area is now slightly winter peaking, with a forecast total internal demand of 41,170 MW in 2020. The total internal demand for winter exceeds the total internal demand for summer by 371 MW. The net internal demand for winter is expected to remain relatively flat, increasing by approximately .32 percent over the 10-year planning horizon. As with many of the SERC subregions, Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) are accounted for both in the load forecast behind the meter and through programs that are in front of the meter and evaluated like a resource. Entities continue to work with the local distribution power companies to account for the magnitude and characteristics of the DER. Generally, smaller (< 5 MW) DERs that are behind the wholesale meter are accounted for in the load forecast. Larger (> 5 MW) DERs that are not behind the wholesale meter are modeled explicitly. These would also have the dynamic characteristics included. Currently, there are over 100 projects (and more than 15,000 MW) in the interconnection queue over the next 5 years. Many of these are solar
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