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State of Reliability of SERC MISO-South Anticipated Reserve Margins within the SERC MISO-South subregion indicate an increasing trend in the first two years, from 28.31 percent to 31.31 percent by 2021. This reflects a net increase in new resources along the coastal areas of SERC MISO-South. After 2021, the forecasted reserve margins are projected to decline to 12.48 percent, below the Reference Reserve Margin of 15 percent. When considering prospective resources in the region, the Reserve Margin follows the same trend, but indicates resource adequacy over the planning horizon. The SERC MISO-South subregion also has access to all of the deliverable resources within the MISO footprint per the Settlement agreement between MISO and the Joint parties. The SERC MISO-South assessment area is summer peaking, with a forecast total internal demand of 33,582 MW in 2020. The total internal demand for summer exceeds the total internal demand for winter by approximately 3,450 MW. The net internal demand for summer is expected to increase by approximately .70 percent over the 10-year planning horizon. Reported demand-side management response in the SERC MISO-South subregion is approximately 1,100 MW, or 3.3 percent of the Total Internal Demand for 2020. This level of demand response is expected to remain steady through the forecast period. As in SERC MISO-Central, few significant photovoltaic (PV) developments have been connected to either the transmission or distribution systems in the SERC MISO-South subregion. Interest in developing solar resources in the subregion is increasing and beginning to emerge from the MISO Definitive Planning Phase (DPP) processes, but has not caused a noticeable change to the net internal demand or anticipated capacity additions in the subregion so far. Both transmission and distribution planning engineers in the subregion are preparing for increased PV and inverter-based resource development. SERC MISO-South expects to add approximate 2,500 MW of new generation over the 10-year planning horizon, predominantly gas generation. Additionally, SERC MISO-South is planning on approximately 4,300 MW of future derates/deactivations of coal and gas generators. Natural gas supplies about 2/3 of the capacity in SERC MISO-South in 2020. Coal and nuclear provide 18 percent and 13 percent of SERC MISO-South’s capacity, respectively. While hydro, pumped storage,
biomass, and variable energy sources contribute approximately 1 percent for summer peak. Approximately 525 miles of new transmission lines in the SERC MISO-South assessment area are in the design/construction phase, and are projected to enhance system reliability. Of the 525 miles of new transmission lines, the majority (466 miles) will be constructed in the first 5 years of the planning horizon. The SERC MISO-South subregion continues to make the necessary investments in transmission to ensure that reliability needs are met over the 10-year horizon.
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