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Executive Summary The RRS assembled and reviewed many sources of data to assess the future reliability of the Region from a resource adequacy and transmission system performance vantage point. This report considers four focus areas: Demand and Energy, Capacity Resources, Reserve Margins, and Transmission. The RRS leverages studies and reports from other SERC committees such as the Dynamics Working Group (DWG), Resource AdequacyWorking Group (RAWG), Near-TermWorking Group (NTWG), and Long-TermWorking Group (LTWG) to assess transmission and resource adequacy impacts from different perspectives. The main body of this report provides additional detail to support the following: Key Findings
Expected demand projections for the SERC Region are almost flat. • The SERC Region’s 2020-2029 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 0.62 percent, slightly higher than that reported last year. • On the high end, the SERC PJM subregion has a 1.27 percent CAGR. • On the low end, the SERC Southeast subregion has a -0.10 percent CAGR. Five of the seven SERC subregions expect the Anticipated Reserve Margins to be above twenty percent for the ten-year period. • Two of the seven subregions expect to maintain a ten-year reserve margin in the eighteen to thirty percent range. • MISO South and MISO Central have access to additional firm deliverable resources between the two subregions up to the Regional Directional Transfer Limit of 1,000 MW; however, combined both subregions begin to fall below the reserve margin level beginning in 2026. • SERC and the RRS will monitor the resource additions for the later years for the MISO foot print. Only slight changes in the Regional resource mix are projected for the 10-year planning horizon, with no significant change reported from 2019 to 2020. The only exception is higher long term forecasted growth in variable energy resources
Net capacity resources in the Region are expected to increase for the first five years of the ten-year planning horizon and gradually level out in the last five years, with natural gas-fired capacity additions largely offset by coal-fired capacity retirements. • Approximately 1.1 GW of natural gas resources, 6.5 GW of utility scale solar (photovoltaic) resources, and 2 GW of nuclear resources are expected by 2024. • Approximately 2.2 GW of coal resource retirements are expected by 2024. SERC is proactively addressing the impacts of increased renewable resources within the SERC footprint and identifying its risks through various forums. • The Variable Energy Resource Working Group (VERWG) explores the reliability considerations related to variable energy resource integration in the SERC Region. • Hundreds of future utility scale transmission connected photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling ~28.8 GW of nameplate capacity (~7.1 GW Tier 1, 10 GW Tier 2, and 12 GW Tier 3; see Resource Categories on page 35 for definitions of tier resources) are reported by Generator Owners over the next 5 years.
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