9
Capacity Resource Topics
Table 2: Capacity Resource Topics by Fuel Type Current State
Potential Reliability Issues
Impacted Subregions
Most SERC subregions have recently seen the shrinking of 10-year compound annual growth rates to well below 1%. SERC- South East subregion is reporting a negative growth rate for the 10-year assessment period. With the exception of SERC Florida Peninsula (FL-Peninsula), growth of gas- fired generation in SERC subregions is lower than in most of the NERC Regions. Gas growth, as a percentage of the total fuel mix, is about 1.8%, while coal drops about 4.0% through the assessment period. The use of coal and oil-fired generation is declining. Hydro, pumped storage, and nuclear generation are increasing slightly, with two new nuclear units planned in SERC Southeast during the assessment period. Solar generation is expected to nearly double by the end of the assessment period with the potential of adding upwards of 35 GW by 2029 (51 GW nameplate).
SERC foresees no potential reliability issues relating to demand. However, this lull in growth rates may affect the ability to respond to possible future higher growth.
All SERC subregions, with the exception of SERC FL Peninsula and SERC PJM
Demand
Fuel delivery for gas units is a concern in the unlikely event that a gas pipeline is lost. Development of utility sized natural gas storage or dual-fuel capability may alleviate some concerns. Accelerated natural gas development in the future may require further analysis to determine whether fuel controls are required. Since conventional generation values remain relatively constant, little reliability concern exists. Accelerated natural gas development in the future, coupled with widespread coal plant retirements may require further analysis to determine whether fuel controls are required. Integration of variable energy resources (VERs) raises the risk of voltage regulation, dynamic response, and sudden change in dispatch patterns. The changing characteristic of the grid with the growth of VERs will affect how the grid is operated in the future.
SERC East, SERC MISO-South
Natural Gas
All SERC subregions
Conventional Generation
SERC-East, SERC-Southeast, SERC-FL Peninsula and SERC-PJM
Solar PV
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