FIELD NOTES with MEL MACHADO
The 2026 Bloom and Crop Potential Forecasting the production of any crop involves detailed analysis of the factors affecting the bloom, as well as the conditions prior to and after bloom. While many in the industry consider official forecasts to be absolute, they are truly an estimate: “An approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something.”
we have a number for the industry’s bearing acreage, we do not truly know the harvested acreage. This has an influence on the industry’s calculated average yield. The difference between the official bearing acreage and the actual harvested acreage provides the first complicating factor in forecasting the crop. Winter Dormancy Following the heavy rains that created some havoc during the 2025 harvest, the 2025/2026 winter proved to be dry and warm. Most areas of the valley did not experience frosty mornings until early January. Fortunately, almond trees require less chilling than other crops. 200 to 500 hours below 45 degrees is the most quoted value, depending on variety. Some sources state that Nonpareil requires approximately 400 hours. University researchers have developed an alternative metric known as the “Dynamic Model” that uses an upper and lower limit to compensate for excessively warm daytime hours that may unwind chilling accumulated during overnight and early morning cold. Rather than hours below 45 degrees, the model identifies chilling as “chill portions.” 22 to 32 chill portions are the most common requirement for almonds. While the early weeks of winter were warm, tule fog set over the Central Valley in December and early January, shielding the sun for several weeks and holding temperatures low enough to provide ample chilling. By the start of the bloom, all major almond growing regions met or exceeded required chill thresholds. However, the winter conditions and the depth of chilling provided the second complicating factor in forecasting the crop.
Successful forecasting is less about establishing a single forecast number and more about understanding the forces shaping production. Harvested acreage, weather volatility, water availability, and economic conditions are more influential now than ever. Being a perennial crop, the health of the bloom can be impacted by events or conditions that occurred in the year prior to bloom, particularly during bud differentiation. These can include:
• Excess heat • Water stress • Poor nutritional status
Almond trees produce more flowers than are needed to set the crop. Under normal conditions, and depending on the bud set, the trees shed 40% to 80% of their buds after bloom. Let’s dive into the factors affecting the potential of the 2026 crop and consider the reasonable range of the conceivable volume. Economic Factors The difficult economic conditions of the past few years have impacted production practices. Reduced fertilizer applications and irrigation volumes have affected the productive potential of many orchards throughout the Central Valley. Some orchards were so impacted that they went unharvested or were even abandoned. Despite abandonment, some are in good enough condition to be considered “bearing” in the satellite imagery identifying California’s bearing acres. I like to say, “If it’s green and it’s standing, it’s in the bearing column.” While we know the total pounds produced in any given crop year and
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ALMOND FACTS
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