Abandoned Orchard in Firebaugh by Mel Machado
The Bloom The 2026 bloom can be easily described as early and fast. Elevated temperatures triggered an early bloom and reduced the number of days each variety presented viable flowers for pollination. While the overlap between varieties in any individual orchard was good, there was significant variation from orchard to orchard within any geographic area. In many cases, orchards planted with the same variety combination peaked as much as one week apart across the same county. Whether this is the result of individual grower economic decisions, soil type, rootstocks or chilling, the variation in peak bloom timing, combined with compressed bloom period and the storms that eliminated bee activity for several days produced the third complicating factor in forecasting the crop. Post-Bloom While bloom-time weather conditions are critical to securing a crop, post-bloom conditions also play a critical role. Following the disruptive bloom-time rains, the Central Valley experienced near summer-like conditions. Daily maximum temperatures ran between 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms, reaching into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. This matched or broke previous daily record highs. The elevated temperatures pushed crop development at a very high pace. Some have noted that orchards
throughout the valley moved from the white of bloom rapidly into green without the usual “dirty stage” normally visible after petals have fallen and leaves emerge. Given that the developing crop is a nutrient sink, rapid leaf development is often thought to be the result of a poor crop set.
Jacket stage by Mel Machado
Growing Season Challenges Economic challenges during the growing season can impact flower bud differentiation, ultimately impacting production for the current and subsequent crop years. The number of nuts in the trees, the number of trees per acre and the actual harvested acreage are important factors in the total pounds produced. Another difficult to predict but important factor that can play a significant role in the crop volume is the actual weight of the kernels. A proxy for this is reflected in the turnout percentage.
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MAY–JUNE 2026
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