FIELD NOTES with MEL MACHADO
Our forecast for the 2026 crop is 2.69 billion pounds, with a range of 2.675 to 2.72 billion pounds.
Turnout is the percentage of the final meat weight compared to the weight of in-hull almonds removed from the orchards at harvest. It is a comparison of the weight of the kernel versus the hull and shell. Many growers question the value of this metric given that the amount of debris and soil included in the harvested product can influence the calculation. Turnout can also vary widely between varieties.
orchards of bearing age throughout the Central Valley that have not been harvested for several years. The same will be true of the 2026 crop. This fact, and the addition of the low or minimal care orchards, serves to reduce the average yield measured across the total known acreage. Our Forecast Our forecast for the 2026 crop is 2.69 billion pounds, with a range of 2.675 to 2.72 billion pounds. Our analysis of each year’s crop focuses on several critical considerations: • Acreage trends – Consider the proportion of new plantings and removals on a county and regional basis. Also consider the age, quality, and productive potential of orchards regionally. • Production trends – Consider total pounds produced by variety in each county and as a percentage of the total production. • Monitoring prior year growing season conditions as they may impact bloom and production of subsequent crops. • Monitoring and analysis of bloom-time conditions , including bloom timing, pollination opportunities and post-bloom conditions throughout crop development.
Normal Runs: Nonpareil: 22% - 25% Aldrich: 26% - 28% Independence (thinner shell): 26% - 30%
When taken as an aggregate across varieties and a wide geographic range, the turnout percentage can provide an indication of the influences endured during the growing season and ultimate impacts on the accuracy of any crop forecast. Turnout can be influenced by heat during the growing season and kernel development stresses. Reduced crop inputs, particularly irrigation, can adversely affect kernel weight and turnout percentage. Research has shown that excessive temperatures early in the growing season, like this March, can decrease kernel size. Considering the weather conditions over the past few crops, and the number of low/minimal care orchards throughout the Central Valley, it is easy to see how turnout can influence the final crop volume. Looking Ahead — The 2026 Crop Land IQ recently published the initial estimate of the 2026 crop acreage at 1,385,870 acres, a reduction of 15,226 acres from the 2025 final estimate. These values are called estimates for a reason. Again, there are many
Trees heavy with Nonpareil in Oakdale by Mel Machado
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ALMOND FACTS
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