2025 Greater Oklahoma City Outlook

A Review of Economic and Fiscal Conditions in the Oklahoma City Metro, Oklahoma and the U.S.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

DEMOLITION EXCAVATION HAULING

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

METHODOLOGY COMMENTS The forecast is an econometric exercise and is not a consensus forecast of business and civic leaders. All models are constructed from publicly available data sources including datasets from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecasts are entirely determined by the past information contained in the dataset and the econometric specification of the models. No attempt has been made to “adjust” the forecast for the beliefs or anticipation of the modeler. The forecast does not take into account anticipated growth from relocations or “new- to-market” firms. In addition, announced expansions of existing companies may take place over a multi-year timeframe and not be fully recognized in the next year. Announced projects that have not taken place are not reflected in forecasted job numbers. The reader is encouraged to treat the forecast as a baseline from which to make their own adjustments and ultimately reach their own conclusion.

Russell R. Evans Partner & Chief Economist Thorberg Collectorate

Russell Evans, Ph.D., partner and chief economist at Thorberg Collectorate, serves as president of the Collectorate’s Regional Economic Advisers division. He is a member of the American Economic Association and the National Association for Business Economics. Eric Long Research Economist Greater Oklahoma City Chamber 405-297-8976 elong@okcchamber.com Eric Long is the Research Economist for the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber. For the past sixteen years, Eric has provided business intelligence, workforce and economic analysis that supports the region’s economic development efforts and local businesses.

123 Park Ave., Oklahoma City, OK, 73102 www.okcchamber.com • 405.297.8900

TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW................................................................... 4 REALESTATEHIGHLIGHTS..................................................... 6 OKLAHOMACITYOUTLOOK................................................... 8 OKLAHOMAOUTLOOK........................................................10 U.S.ECONOMICOUTLOOK.....................................................13 APPENDIXTABLES............................................................16

OVERVIEW WHERE DID WE GROW IN 2025?

In 2024, the Oklahoma City metro economy experienced year-over-year nonfarm annual job growth of 2.1% or a gain of 14,700 jobs. The largest percentage year-over-year preliminary job gains were found in education & health (6.6%), construction (6.5%), leisure & hospitality (5.3%), other services (4.0%), government (2.6%), and mining/oil & gas (1.0%). The super sector industries experiencing decline include information (-2.1%), finance (-2.0%), professional & business services (-1.7%), manufacturing (-1.5%), and trade transportation & utilities (-1.0%). The Oklahoma City metro completed 2024 with an annual average unemployment rate for the entire year of 3.2%, the seventh lowest experienced by OKC since 1990. Rates ranged as high as 3.6 % (Feb.) and as low as 2.8 % (Apr., Oct., Nov. & Dec.). The metro has experienced 41 consecutive months of unemployment below 4 percent and was ranked among the top 10 lowest unemployment rates for large metros (over 1 million population). WHERE WILL WE GROW IN 2025? Positive Oklahoma City metro nonfarm job growth is expected in 2025, with the baseline job forecast scenario growing by 2.5% or adding nearly 18,200 jobs. Two alternative forecast models that the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber tracks separately show a more modest 2025 employment growth between 1.2% and 1.4%. The local economy remains vulnerable to national and global uncertainties that may disrupt economic conditions, especially coming out of a presidential election year. The largest percentage year- over-year job gains are expected in other services (5.1%), education & healthcare (5.0%), construction (4.3%), mining/oil&gas (4.1%), leisure & hospitality (2.5%), trade transportation & utilities (2.2%), government (1.4%), information (1.1%), finance (0.9%), professional & business services (0.8%), and manufacturing (0.7%). Job posting data can often be viewed as a proxy for future intent of hiring intentions. The total number of job postings for December 2024 in the OKC metro was down by 6% when compared to the same month prior year (December 2023). Comparatively, the Nation experienced a 1% decline.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

SELECT 2024 ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM CHAMBER-ASSISTED COMPANIES 2024 was the final year of a four-year economic development program called Forward Oklahoma City VI. This is the sixth iteration of the Forward campaign that has provided longer term strategic planning to the region’s economic development initiatives over the past thirty years. In 2024, 100 Chamber-assisted companies announced plans for the creation of 5,888 jobs with an annual average salary of $61,029. In addition, those same companies announced more than $664 million in capital investment and $359 million in payroll. Over the past four years, 20,481 jobs have been announced with $1.1 billion in payroll and $8.5 billion in capital investment. This continues to build upon the success of the prior Forward Oklahoma City campaign (FOKC V 2016-2020), that resulted in 23,914 jobs with payroll in excess of $1.2 billion and $2.2 billion in capital investment. • Asco Aerospace - Aerospace manufacturer expanding, adding 160 jobs in Stillwater • MyDefence A/S - Aerospace technology manufacturer from Denmark developing defense software adding 48 jobs in OKC • Kingspan - Building materials manufacturer from Ireland adding 75 jobs and substantial capex in Stillwater • Nortek Data Center Cooling - HVAC commercial and industrial manufacturer that builds data center cooling solutions is expanding in Oklahoma City adding 400 jobs • Averitt Express - Freight transportation and supply chain service provider expanding in Oklahoma City adding 31 jobs • RedW Advisors & CPAs - Professional service company is expanding in Oklahoma City adding 20 jobs • Vortex Doors - Garage door and gate manufacturer is expanding in Oklahoma City adding 30 jobs • Project Mach I - company expanding in Oklahoma City adding 2,000 jobs WHAT TYPES OF COMPANIES ARE LOOKING AT THE GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY REGION? In January 2025, the Greater Oklahoma City Partnership reported 95 companies currently considering relocating or expanding in the region. Of those companies, three out of five are in manufacturing. This reinforces what we are seeing nationally where companies are reshoring operations to improve supply chain logistics and move to lower cost markets. Aerospace and distribution projects continue to have strong interest in OKC. The number of office projects continue to be in decline due to structural changes in how and where people work.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

REAL ESTATE HIGHLIGHTS

OKLAHOMA CITY RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW For the seven-county Oklahoma City metropolitan area, 2024 calendar year total taxable retail sales declined by 1.5% over prior year. Year-over-year increases had been enjoyed for three consecutive years prior (2021, 2022 and 2023). The increases in both 2021 (+13.6%) and 2022 (+11.6%) had been the largest seen in at least 30 years. Forecasted 2025 numbers anticipate a 3.1% growth. At approximately $29.5 billion, the Oklahoma City metro accounts for 45% of the taxable retail sales for the entire state of Oklahoma and 36% of the state’s population. This continues to make the Oklahoma City metro a driving force for retail trade in the state. Per the Price Edwards 2024 OKC Year End Retail Market Summary, retail vacancy in the Oklahoma City market ended the year at 8.87%, improving slightly from 8.97% prior year. Total tracked retail square footage is approximately 51 million square feet.

OKLAHOMA CITY INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW The CoStar Industrial Market Report (January 2025) reports that the Oklahoma City market has an inventory of 152 million SF of industrial space. Rent grew by 0.4% over the prior year, well below the 10-year historical average (4.7%). The vacancy rate in January 2025 was 5.3% and expected to remain flat in 2025. There is currently 610,000 SF of industrial construction underway in Oklahoma City. Most of the space underway is in the Southeast Submarket. Unlike past construction waves, which tend to be focused on owner- occupied mega projects for existing companies, the current slate of construction is virtually all speculative. OKLAHOMA CITY OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Oklahoma City’s office market experienced flat rent growth over the past year and was below the U.S. average of 1.2%. On a positive note, the Oklahoma City vacancy rate of 9.6% is outperforming the nation (approximately 14%). According to CoStar, there is currently over 70 million SF of office space in the Oklahoma City market. As of early 2025, just over 400 thousand SF of office product is currently under construction. Asking rates average $20.32 across all property types ($16.75-$24.14).

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

REAL ESTATE HIGHLIGHTS

VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS According to Dodge, in 2024 the total construction value of tracked contract projects (residential, non-residential, and non-building infrastructure) in the Oklahoma City MSA was $4.47 billion. That was 9% above prior year (2023). The largest positive year-over-year percentage gains were found in the Manufacturing Plants/Science Labs, Government, Water Supply Systems, Education, and Stores & Restaurants categories. The largest year-over-year declines in the construction value of contracts were in Office & Bank Buildings, Hotels & Motels, Streets & Highways, and Bridges. For 2025, total construction value of contract projects in the Oklahoma City MSA is forecasted by Dodge to increase by 19%, considerably higher than the 9% forecasted for the nation. For Oklahoma City, the 2025 construction value of contracts is expected to grow in both Non- Residential (10%) and Residential (4%) sectors. A 72% increase is expected in Non-Building infrastructure project values which includes Bridges, Streets, Water Supply Systems, Sewers and Other.

RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET According to Dharma LLC, the part of the Oklahoma City metro that it tracks recorded 4,567 housing starts in 2024. This was 2% above prior year. The higher interest rate environment has resulted in lower housing starts for the OKC metro for each of the past three years and below pre- pandemic totals (5,366 in 2019). Over the past five years (2020-2024), more than 26,800 housing starts were captured in the Oklahoma City metro (an annual average of 5,377). This exceeds the number of housing starts in the previous 5-year period (24,565 from 2015-2019). Similar to the nation, as borrowing costs in 2023 and 2024 remained high, Oklahoma City area home sales and home prices began to slow. More than 23,200 closed sales and 19,000 pending sales were reported. The MLSOK Annual Report showed that 2024 home prices in the Oklahoma City metro were up compared to last year. The preliminary overall median sales price increased just under 2% to $254,000 for the year. There were 7,300 active listings at the end of 2024, which was considerably higher than the 5,694 in December 2023.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

THE OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AND EXPAND ACROSS THE MSA 2025 OKLAHOMA CITY MSA OUTLOOK

The Oklahoma City MSA economy continues to power state economic outcomes. The MSA now accounts for nearly 40% of the state’s GDP and more than a third of the state population. But activity is dispersing across the metro area with Oklahoma County’s share of MSA GDP falling to 70% while its share of MSA population dips below 55%. Much of the population and economic activity gains are on the south and west side of the metro area. Canadian and McLain counties have averaged 3.3% and 2.5% population growth annually since 2013 while their respective economies have expanded at an annual average rate of 6.5% and 7.2%. Expect this broad pattern to continue as Oklahoma City drives state economic growth with Oklahoma County’s share slowly receding.

Real per capita personal income and real per capita GDP are expected to grow modestly in 2025. Earlier this decade per capita incomes in Oklahoma City passed U.S. measures. Expect income growth in Oklahoma City MSA to meet or exceed U.S. growth with per capita income gaps between Oklahoma City and the U.S. emerging. Oklahoma City remains well positioned for the future with 21.4% of the MSA population in the prospective labor force age range of 10 – 24. This standby labor force will allow current long run growth trends to carry well into future decades.

Expect nonfarm payrolls to add an average of 1,500 jobs per month, or 18,200 jobs for the year, marking 2.5% growth at year end. Job gains will be concentrated in the health, trade, and hospitality service sectors with strong gains expected in the construction sector as well.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

JOB GAINS TODAY AND A PROSPECTIVE LABOR POOL FOR FUTURE POSITIONS IN OKC FOR LONG-RUN SUCCESS

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

RECENT GROWTH AND A STRONG LABOR MARKET WILL HELP OKLAHOMA HOUSEHOLDS IN 2025 2025 OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK

States with higher unemployment than job openings are generally seeing state unemployment rates move higher as further tightening in the labor market takes the form of job losses rather than excess demand reduction. In October 2024 Oklahoma had an estimated 0.6 workers per open job and an unemployment rate of 3.3%. With more jobs than unemployed persons, Oklahoma’s unemployment rate will remain well below the national measure through 2025.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

POPULATION AND JOB GAINS POSITION IN OKLAHOMA FOR 2025

Labor Market Summary, October 2024

Unemployed per Job

Unemployment Rate

State

CO AR OK KS LA TX NV WA

0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

4.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.1 5.7 4.7 5.3 5.4

1.1

1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oklahoma’s population is growing faster than nearly twice the pace of the U.S. population, growth with a growing population providing support for real estate, labor, and consumer markets. Oklahoma prices are 12% lower than national prices on average and inflation in the state is below 2%. Expect the unemployment rate to end the year (2025) between 3.5% and 4.0% and local inflation to stay contained below 2%.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

POPULATION AND JOB GAINS POSITION IN OKLAHOMA FOR 2025

If households are going to rely on labor income to support consumption activity in 2025, then Oklahoma is starting from a position of strength. With only 0.6 unemployed persons per available job, job seekers should encounter short job searches and avenues to higher wages. This will mean that employers will continue to fight each other for qualified candidates and may need to be creative in their hiring and retention practices. That both Oklahoma’s population growth rate and employment rate are above national measures speaks to the strength of the state’s economy. While there is no guarantee that 2025 will pass without disruptive events, at least Oklahoma will face them from a position of strength. Expect the state to add jobs in 2025 with the pace of job creation accelerating in the second half of the year. Nonfarm employment gains are expected to average 3,500 new jobs per month, leading to 42,000 new jobs across the state in 2025, marking 2.3% growth. The job gains will be concentrated in urban, metro areas and in labor intensive service sectors such as health services, retail and wholesale trade, and leisure and accommodation services. Expect strong growth in the goods sector led by construction gains and job gains in the state’s oil and natural gas industry.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

THE FINAL PUSH: HOW 2024 SETS THE STAGE FOR 2025 2025 U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13

one

“Valuations are elevated in a number of asset classes, including equity and corporate debt markets, where estimated risk premiums are near the bottom of their historical distributions, suggesting that markets may be priced to perfection and, therefore, susceptible to large declines, which could result from bad economic news or a change in investor sentiment.” - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, January 6th, 2025

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

THE 2025 FORECAST: NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES FROM RECOGNIZED INDUSTRY VOICES We provide a summary outlook from three respected entities and add our commentary to their analysis. These are the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the Conference Board (CB), and Goldman Sachs (GS). Readers are encouraged to find or follow any of these entities for ongoing national economic analysis. See appendix for full outlook table.

The year ahead looks a lot like the year behind – expect moderate growth but be prepared for challenges that might arise. Lower-income households have spent through savings and are relying on expensive credit to support consumption. Their debt levels are manageable, but just barely. Consumption spending in 2025 for these households will have to come from labor income. Fortunately, the labor market in Oklahoma is relatively strong which gives Oklahoma households a reasonably strong footing as they head into next year. Higher-income households are increasingly reliant on the stock market to generate wealth and support ongoing consumption. Stock valuations are high (as noted in the adjacent quote) and could be susceptible to large declines. Should this happen we expect to see a quick change in behavior from these households.

U.S. Outlook Summary

Metric (Source)

2024

2025

National forecasters generally expect moderate growth in 2025. Goldman Sachs expects 2.4% growth and places the odds of a recession at 1 in 5. A survey of executives (the Conference Board) expects slower growth and the odds of a recession

RGDP (GS)

2.5% 2.4% 4.2% 4.3% 2.4% 2.0% 4.3% 3.3%

Unemployment Rate (NABE)

Inflation (CB)

Fed Funds Rate (CB)

at 1 in 2. We expect 2025 to unfold somewhere in the middle. We doubt the ability of the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates throughout the year as inflation lingers. We expect inflation to linger closer to 3% for much of early 2025 giving the Federal Reserve little room for rate cuts until we get deeper into 2025. The labor market is also reasonably healthy. Most states continue to have more job openings than unemployed persons, which should allow the unemployment rate to hold below 4.5% for much of the year even if growth comes in a little below expectations. Expect the unemployment rate to be closer to 4.5% than 4% as 2025 comes to a close.

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 15

2025 APPENDIX TABLES

U.S. Macroeconomy Outlook, Quarterly 2023 2024

2025(f)

Year Quarter

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

3.1%

2.8%

2.5%

4.4%

3.2%

1.6%

3.0%

Actual

3.1%

0.9%

1.2%

1.8%

2.2% 2.3%

2.8%

2.5%

4.4%

3.2%

1.6%

3.0%

Conference Board (f)

REAL GDP

2.8%

2.5%

4.4%

3.2%

1.6%

3.0%

3.1%

2.0%

1.9%

2.0% 2.1%

NABE (f)

2.5%

4.4%

3.2%

1.6%

3.0%

3.1%

2.5%

2.4%

2.4% 2.4%

2.8%

Goldman Sachs (f)

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

Actual

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

4.3%

4.1%

3.9% 3.9%

Conference Board (f)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

4.3%

4.3% 4.3%

NABE (f)

4.0%

4.2%

4.1%

4.0%

3.9% 3.9%

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

Goldman Sachs (f)

4.9%

5.1%

5.4%

4.9%

Actual

4.9%

5.1%

5.4%

4.9%

4.4%

3.9%

3.4%

3.1% 3.1%

Conference Board (f)

FED FUNDS RATE

3.9%

3.6% 3.4%

4.9%

5.1%

5.4%

4.9%

4.4%

4.1%

NABE (f)

4.9%

5.1%

5.4%

3.5%

3.3% 3.3%

5.4%

4.9%

4.3%

3.8%

Goldman Sachs (f)

4.1%

4.0%

3.2%

2.5%

2.4%

2.1%

2.2%

Supercore Actual

4.9%

4.6%

3.9%

3.2%

3.0%

2.7%

Actual

CORE PCE INFLATION

4.9%

4.6%

3.9%

3.2%

3.0%

2.7%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

2.0% 2.0%

Conference Board (YoY, f)

4.9%

4.6%

3.9%

3.2%

3.7%

2.8%

2.2%

2.3%

2.2%

2.1% 2.1%

NABE (SAAR, f)

4.9%

4.6%

3.9%

3.2%

3.0%

2.7%

2.8%

2.6%

2.6% 2.4%

Goldman Sachs (YoY, f)

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Conference Board, National Association of Business Economists, Goldman Sachs

Oklahoma Employment by Sector Outlook, Quarterly

Year Quarter

2023

2024

2025(f)

2026(f)

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

Value (thous) 1,735.8 1,754.5 1,748.9 1,778.3 1,765.7 1,784.8 1,777.2 1,807.6 1,783.7 1,811.7 1,818.9 1,848.6 1,825.9 1,840.0 1,844.8 1,877.8 3.9% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1,379.4 1,396.3 1,397.9 1,408.5 1,399.7 1,416.2 1,418.7 1,431.2 1,415.4 1,436.8 1,451.4 1,465.6 1,451.4 1,465.3 1,477.2 1,492.0 4.5% 3.6% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 1.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 250.0 253.8 254.2 256.6 259.5 260.4 261.9 263.8 263.3 266.8 271.5 275.1 276.7 279.9 283.7 286.2 Q4/Q4 growth 4.8% 4.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.8% 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 1.4% 2.5% 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.5% 4.0% 1,485.8 1,500.7 1,494.6 1,521.7 1,506.2 1,524.4 1,515.3 1,543.8 1,520.4 1,544.8 1,547.4 1,573.6 1,549.2 1,560.1 1,561.1 1,591.6 3.8% 3.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 32.5 32.1 31.5 31.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.4 32.2 31.9 32.7 33.6 34.3 34.4 35.1 35.7 10.1% 5.8% 0.6% -1.0% -0.9% 0.4% 2.4% 4.0% 0.0% -1.0% 1.4% 3.7% 6.5% 7.8% 7.4% 6.4% 80.1 82.2 83.5 85.2 86.2 88.0 90.3 91.7 91.2 94.2 97.0 98.2 98.2 101.3 104.1 105.3 2.7% 3.3% 3.3% 6.1% 7.7% 7.0% 8.1% 7.5% 5.8% 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 137.5 139.5 139.3 140.2 141.1 140.2 139.3 139.8 139.9 140.7 141.9 143.3 144.2 144.2 144.5 145.2 4.8% 5.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% -0.3% -0.9% 0.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 320.6 320.2 319.5 325.9 319.1 319.8 316.8 321.7 315.0 318.4 320.0 328.2 320.5 322.1 323.8 332.7 0.7% 0.7% -0.7% -1.0% -0.5% -0.1% -0.8% -1.3% -1.3% -0.4% 1.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 18.0 18.5 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.5 3.8% 3.0% -1.3% -3.3% -5.9% -8.6% -6.2% -4.1% -1.4% 0.6% 1.5% 1.9% 0.6% -1.1% -2.2% -2.8% 82.6 83.9 84.2 85.1 84.3 84.1 83.6 83.5 82.6 83.2 83.5 83.8 83.4 84.1 84.5 84.9 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 3.1% 2.0% 0.2% -0.6% -1.9% -1.9% -1.0% -0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 208.8 211.3 209.2 207.3 202.9 205.7 207.2 207.9 204.2 207.5 209.8 210.6 206.7 208.1 209.5 210.4 5.4% 3.8% 0.5% -1.6% -2.8% -2.7% -1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 253.7 255.5 259.5 264.4 266.8 268.5 269.3 272.3 270.6 271.9 274.0 277.3 276.5 277.1 278.9 282.4 6.8% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 3.8% 3.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 176.1 182.3 182.4 181.1 181.1 190.2 191.5 193.5 190.3 198.4 200.9 198.5 195.4 201.0 203.2 201.5 6.4% 3.8% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 4.4% 5.0% 6.8% 5.1% 4.3% 4.9% 2.6% 2.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 69.6 70.9 71.0 70.7 69.0 70.6 71.7 72.0 72.7 73.5 74.7 75.1 75.5 76.0 77.0 77.3 6.4% 5.1% 3.8% 2.7% -0.9% -0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 5.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 356.4 358.2 350.9 369.8 366.0 368.6 358.4 376.4 372.5 374.0 364.5 382.4 378.5 378.4 368.6 386.6 1.8% 2.2% 3.1% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

NONFARM

PRIVATE

GOODS

SERVICES

MINING

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACT

TRADE TRANSPORT UTILITIES

INFORMATION

FINANCE

PROF BUSINESS SERVICES

EDUCATION HEALTH

LEISURE

OTHER

GOVERNMENT

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2025 APPENDIX TABLES

Oklahoma City Employment by Sector Outlook, Quarterly

2023

2024

2025(f)

2026(f)

Year Quarter

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

Value (thous) Q4/Q4 growth

688.5

695.4

695.1

707.9

705.2

713.6

711.0

722.6

714.0 722.6 725.7

740.8 733.8

738.2 740.2

755.6

NONFARM

4.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 558.8 564.8 566.9 573.1 572.0 579.4 580.6 584.3 576.8 586.0 593.0 600.5 594.9 600.2 606.5 615.0 4.4% 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 0.8% 1.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 80.3 80.9 80.8 81.1 82.4 82.6 83.1 82.9 81.9 82.9 84.2 85.2 85.5 86.6 88.0 89.0 4.3% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 2.2% 2.8% 2.2% -0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 608.1 614.5 614.3 626.8 622.8 631.0 627.9 639.7 632.1 639.7 641.6 655.6 648.3 651.6 652.3 666.6 4.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.0 4.1% -3.0% -6.8% -3.8% -2.4% 0.0% 1.0% -2.0% -1.9% 0.7% 4.1% 5.7% 7.4% 8.6% 9.1% 33.3 33.8 33.8 34.1 34.5 35.1 35.9 36.4 36.0 36.9 37.6 37.9 37.9 38.9 39.7 40.0 4.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 6.2% 6.5% 4.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 35.8 36.1 36.4 36.5 37.1 36.9 36.6 36.0 35.3 35.5 35.9 36.2 36.4 36.5 36.7 36.9 4.0% 3.2% 1.8% 3.8% 2.1% 0.5% -1.5% -5.0% -3.7% -1.9% 0.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 125.9 125.4 125.6 129.3 126.6 126.4 125.6 128.0 125.5 126.2 126.7 130.8 128.7 128.6 129.6 134.1 0.7% -0.4% -0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% 0.9% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 8.5% 5.6% 3.9% 0.5% -2.1% -1.6% -2.1% -2.4% -2.2% -0.9% 1.1% 0.9% -0.7% -2.1% -2.7% 36.9 37.1 37.3 37.5 37.1 36.8 36.9 36.8 36.4 36.7 36.9 37.1 36.9 37.3 37.6 37.9 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% -0.8% -1.1% -2.0% -2.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 93.1 94.1 94.0 93.1 90.3 91.8 92.0 91.6 89.2 90.6 91.9 92.3 89.9 90.1 90.8 91.2 5.3% 2.4% -0.5% -3.1% -2.4% -2.2% -1.7% -1.1% -1.4% -0.1% 0.8% 0.8% -0.5% -1.2% -1.2% 109.6 110.7 112.7 116.2 119.8 121.5 122.3 123.9 124.0 125.9 127.7 130.1 130.7 132.1 133.8 136.1 8.4% 7.6% 7.8% 9.3% 9.8% 8.6% 6.6% 3.5% 3.6% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 76.7 79.5 79.6 79.0 79.1 82.6 82.9 83.3 81.5 84.9 86.2 85.4 83.5 85.4 86.5 86.1 4.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.9% 4.1% 5.3% 3.0% 2.7% 4.0% 2.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 30.1 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 31.4 31.7 31.9 32.2 32.8 33.2 33.5 33.6 34.0 34.3 34.5 5.5% 4.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.3% 3.5% 4.0% 5.5% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 129.6 130.6 128.2 134.8 133.2 134.2 130.4 138.3 137.3 136.6 132.7 140.3 138.9 138.1 133.7 140.6 2.5% 2.9% 3.6% 2.8% 2.7% 1.7% 2.6% 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2%

PRIVATE

GOODS

SERVICES

MINING

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACT

TRADE TRANSPORT UTILITIES

INFORMATION

FINANCE

PROF BUSINESS SERVICES

EDUCATION HEALTH

LEISURE

OTHER

GOVERNMENT

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 17

2025 APPENDIX TABLES

Oklahoma Macroeconomy & Labor Market Outlook, Annual

Year

2014

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024(f)

2025(f)

2026(f)

Value $186,574 $193,793 $190,094 $192,539 $196,031 $200,072 $191,561 $194,133 $193,941 $207,923 $216,687 $225,256 $233,497 Y/Y growth 6.0% 3.9% -1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% -4.3% 1.3% -0.1% 7.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% $199,540 $194,705 $183,586 $189,624 $198,042 $205,867 $212,055 $222,512 $226,515 $230,880 $237,554 $244,468 $249,485 4.0% -2.4% -5.7% 3.3% 4.4% 4.0% 3.0% 4.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.1% $137,162 $139,549 $140,567 $143,269 $148,652 $149,960 $147,181 $159,052 $165,111 $169,192 $172,793 $175,909 $178,459 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1.9% 3.8% 0.9% -1.9% 8.1% 3.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 3,871,583 3,901,051 3,916,821 3,920,455 3,928,494 3,943,796 3,965,234 3,991,634 4,019,271 4,053,824 4,090,969 4,130,178 4,169,055 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% $51,540 $49,911 $46,871 $48,368 $50,412 $52,200 $53,478 $55,745 $56,357 $56,954 $58,068 $59,191 $59,842 3.4% -3.2% -6.1% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5% 2.4% 4.2% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.1% $35,428 $35,772 $35,888 $36,544 $37,840 $38,024 $37,118 $39,846 $41,080 $41,736 $42,238 $42,591 $42,806 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.8% 3.5% 0.5% -2.4% 7.3% 3.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 89.1 88.9 89.9 90.9 91.5 92.5 93.8 98.0 103.1 106.4 108.2 110.2 112.2 1.7% -0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 4.4% 5.2% 3.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% -0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 4.4% 5.2% 3.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2,273,648 2,287,838 2,287,131 2,291,944 2,312,261 2,309,379 2,265,288 2,311,442 2,382,391 2,455,127 2,496,282 2,540,935 2,584,108 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% -0.1% -1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 78 79 85 84 60 58 116 75 58 63 68 75 81 - 0.8% 8.0% -1.3% -28.3% -3.5% 100.3% -35.4% -22.4% 8.8% 8.1% 10.0% 7.5% 1,720 1,751 1,743 1,740 1,771 1,785 1,727 1,791 1,845 1,900 1,931 1,958 1,987 - 1.8% -0.4% -0.2% 1.8% 0.8% -3.3% 3.7% 3.0% 3.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1,798 1,829 1,828 1,824 1,831 1,843 1,843 1,866 1,904 1,963 2,000 2,033 2,068 - 1.7% -0.1% -0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2,948 2,974 2,990 2,990 2,999 3,016 3,031 3,056 3,085 3,123 3,162 3,196 3,223 - 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 3.3% 3.1% 6.3% 4.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 58.3% 58.9% 58.3% 58.2% 59.1% 59.2% 57.0% 58.6% 59.8% 60.8% 61.1% 61.3% 61.6% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 61.0% 61.5% 61.1% 61.0% 61.1% 61.1% 60.8% 61.1% 61.7% 62.9% 63.2% 63.6% 64.1% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT*

REAL PERSONAL INCOME*

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES*

POPULATION

REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME

REAL PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION EXP

IMPLICIT REGIONAL DEFLATOR

INFLATION

TOTAL FT AND PT EMPLOYMENT

HOUSEHOLD UNEMPLOYMENT

HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT

HOUSEHOLD LABOR FORCE

CIVILIAN POPULATION

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

EMP / POP RATIO

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

*$Mil, 2017 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2025 APPENDIX TABLES

Oklahoma Employment by Sector Outlook, Quarterly

Year Quarter

2023

2024

2025(f)

2026(f)

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

Q1(f)

Q2(f)

Q3(f)

Q4(f)

NONFARM

PRIVATE

GOODS

SERVICES

MINING

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACT

TRADE TRANSPORT UTILITIES

INFORMATION

FINANCE

PROF BUSINESS SERVICES

EDUCATION HEALTH

LEISURE

OTHER

GOVERNMENT

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 19

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