2026 GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY
A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC AND FISCAL CONDITIONS IN THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO, OKLAHOMA AND THE U.S.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
METHODOLOGY COMMENTS The forecast is an econometric exercise and is not a consensus forecast of business and civic leaders. All models are constructed from publicly available data sources including datasets from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecasts are entirely determined by the past information contained in the dataset and the econometric specification of the models. No attempt has been made to “adjust” the forecast for the beliefs or anticipation of the modeler. The forecast does not take into account anticipated growth from relocations or “new-to-market” firms. In addition, announced expansions of existing companies may take place over a multi-year timeframe and not be fully recognized in the next year. Announced projects that have not taken place are not reflected in forecasted job numbers. The reader is encouraged to treat the forecast as a baseline from which to make their own adjustments and ultimately reach their own conclusion.
Russell R. Evans Dean, University of Central Oklahoma College of Business President, Regional Economic Advisors
Dr. Russell Evans serves as President of Regional Economic Advisers. He is the Dean of the University of Central Oklahoma’s College of Business and is a Trustee of the Oklahoma City Community Foundation where he serves as chair of the investment committee. He is a member of the American Economic Association and the National Association for Business Economics. Eric Long Research Economist Greater Oklahoma City Chamber 405-297-8976 elong@okcchamber.com Eric Long is the Research Economist for the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber. For the past 17 years, Eric has provided business intelligence, workforce and economic analysis that support the region’s economic development efforts and local businesses.
123 Park Ave., Oklahoma City, OK, 73102 www.okcchamber.com • 405.297.8900
TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW.................................................................................3 REALESTATEHIGHLIGHTS...................................................................5 OKLAHOMACITYOUTLOOK.................................................................7 OKLAHOMAOUTLOOK.....................................................................10 U.S.ECONOMICOUTLOOK..................................................................12 APPENDIXTABLES......................................................................... 13
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
OVERVIEW WHERE DID WE GROW IN 2025?
In 2025, the Oklahoma City metro economy experienced year-over-year nonfarm annual job growth of 0.9% or a gain of 6,600 jobs. The largest percentage year-over-year preliminary job gains were found in construction (7.1%), education & health (4.3%), other services (2.0%), financial activities (1.0%), leisure & hospitality (0.8%), and trade transportation & utilities (0.6%). The super sector industries experiencing decline include manufacturing (-1.5%), professional & business services (-0.7%), and government (-0.5%). The Oklahoma City metro completed 2025 with an annual average unemployment rate of 3.2%, the eighth-lowest since 1990. Rates ranged as high as 3.8% (Nov.) and as low as 2.4% (Apr.). The metro experienced 52 consecutive months of unemployment below 4% and was ranked among the top 10 lowest unemployment rates for large metros (over 1 million population). WHERE WILL WE GROW IN 2026? Positive Oklahoma City metro nonfarm job growth is expected in 2026, with the baseline job forecast scenario growing by 0.6% or adding nearly 4,500 jobs. Three alternative forecast models that the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber tracks separately show a similarly modest 2025 employment growth between 0.7% and 1.1%. The local economy remains vulnerable to national and global uncertainties that may disrupt economic conditions. The largest percentage year-over-year job gains are expected in financial activities (3.1%), manufacturing (2.1%), education & healthcare (2.0%), construction (1.7%), professional & business services (1.7%), other services (0.6%), and government (0.8%). Flat or decline is expected in trade & transportation (-0.1%) and leisure & hospitality (0.0%). Job posting data can often be viewed as a proxy for future hiring intentions. The total number of job postings for December 2025 in the Oklahoma City metro was flat (less than 1% growth) when compared to the same month the prior year (December 2024). Comparatively, the nation experienced an 8% increase.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
SELECT 2024 ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM CHAMBER-ASSISTED COMPANIES 2025 was the final year of a five-year economic development cycle our Chamber called Forward Oklahoma City VI. It was the sixth iteration campaign, established initially as Forward Oklahoma City in 1995, to provide longer term strategic planning for - and execution of - our region’s economic development initiatives over the past 30 years. It has proven successful. Our newest cycle, Forward Oklahoma City VII began January 1, 2026, and will continue through December 2030. In 2025, 113 Chamber-assisted companies announced plans to create 3,406 jobs, with an average annual salary of $60,752. In addition, those same companies announced more than $4.45 billion in capital investment and $206 million in payroll. Over the past five years, 23,464 jobs have been created with $1.3 billion in payroll and $7.4 billion in capital investment. This continues to build upon the success of the prior Forward Oklahoma City campaign (FOKC V 2016-2020), which resulted in 23,914 jobs with payroll in excess of $1.2 billion and $2.2 billion in capital investment.
A few examples of companies that have announced an increase in their investment in the Greater Oklahoma City region in 2025 include:
• ARL, a locally based biotech testing and services company, announced a major expansion to support growing client demand. The project includes $46 million dollars in capital investment and the addition of 433 new jobs. • Google continues its expansion in Oklahoma with a $3 billion data center project in Stillwater. • Hapco, a leading aluminum and steel manufacturer, announced a $50 million investment to construct a 250,000-square-foot facility in Oklahoma City. • Bethany Children’s Health Center added 130 new jobs to bring its total headcount to 1,000 employees. • Kingspan, an Ireland-based building materials manufacturer, announced the opening of its new North American headquarters in Stillwater with an investment of $1 billion dollars and 100 jobs. • Coca-Cola Southwest Beverages began a $36 million dollar expansion of their distribution center and fleet building. • Hobby Lobby continued to expand its campus with its distribution center footprint now totaling over 2 million square feet, along with a new 42-acre intermodal facility with BNSF Railway. WHAT TYPES OF COMPANIES ARE LOOKING AT THE GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY REGION? In December 2025, the Greater Oklahoma City Partnership reported 121 companies currently considering relocating or expanding in the region. Of those companies, 70% are in manufacturing. This reinforces what we are seeing nationally where companies are reshoring operations to improve supply chain logistics and move to lower-cost markets. Aerospace and Distribution projects continue to have strong interest in Oklahoma City. The number of office projects has improved over the prior year as companies
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
REAL ESTATE HIGHLIGHTS
According to CoStar, there is currently over 73 million SF of office space in the Oklahoma City market. As of early 2026, about 310 thousand SF of office product across 13 properties is currently under construction. Asking rates average $20.61 across all property types ($17.10 to $24.54). OKLAHOMA CITY RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW According to RegionTrack, the seven-county Oklahoma City metropolitan area experienced a 2025 calendar year total taxable retail sales increase of 3.3% over the prior year. Year-over-year increases had been enjoyed for three consecutive years prior (2021, 2022 and 2023) before a slight decline in 2024 (-1.1%). The increases in both 2021 (+13.6%) and 2022 (+11.6%) had been the largest seen in at least 30 years. Forecasted 2026 numbers anticipate a 5.4% growth. The Oklahoma City metro accounts for 52% of the taxable retail sales for the entire state of Oklahoma, 36% of the state’s population, and 40% of the state’s GDP. This continues to make the Oklahoma City metro a driving force for retail trade in the state.
OKLAHOMA CITY INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
The CoStar Industrial Market Report (January 2026) reports that the Oklahoma City market has an inventory of 156 million SF of industrial space. Market asking rent declined by 0.3% over the prior year, well below the 10-year historical average (3.3%) and the lowest point in over a decade. The delivery of new inventory has driven up both competition for tenants and vacancy rates. The vacancy rate in January 2026 was 6.6% and is expected to remain flat in 2026. There is currently 560,000 SF of industrial construction underway in Oklahoma City. Virtually all of these are tied to smaller projects. Most of the space underway is in the Southeast Submarket. Unlike past construction waves, which tend to focus on owner-occupied mega projects for existing companies like Hobby Lobby, Amazon, or Locke Supply, the current slate of construction is balanced toward speculative builds. OKLAHOMA CITY OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Oklahoma City’s office market experienced flat rent growth over the past year and was below the U.S. average of 1%. The Oklahoma City vacancy rate of 10% has coincided with a record of available square footage on the market (8.7 million SF). However, it remains well below the nation (14%).
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The Oklahoma City metro accounts for 52% of the taxable retail sales for the entire state of Oklahoma, 36% of the state’s population, and 40% of the state’s GDP.
Per the Price Edwards 2025 OKC Year End Retail Market Summary, retail vacancy in the Oklahoma City market ended the year at 9.29%, increasing slightly from 8.87% prior year. Total tracked retail square footage is approximately 50 million square feet. Retail is healthy, but unevenly so, and the gap between the strongest properties and the rest of the market continues to widen.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
REAL ESTATE HIGHLIGHTS
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS According to Dodge, in 2025, the total construction value of tracked contract projects (residential, non-residential, and non-building infrastructure) in the Oklahoma City MSA was $4.79 billion. That was 5% below the prior year (2024). The largest positive year-over-year percentage gains were found in the hotels & motels, manufacturing, stores and restaurants, warehouses, religious buildings and office & bank building categories. The largest year-over-year declines in the construction value of contracts were in dormitories, hospitals & other health treatment, dams/reservoirs/river development, streets & highways, bridges, amusement & recreation, parking garages, and government service buildings. For 2026, Dodge forecasts total construction value of contract projects in the Oklahoma City MSA to increase by 12%, considerably higher than the 0% forecast for the nation. For Oklahoma City, the 2026 Construction value of contracts is expected to grow in both non-residential (22%) and non- building (12%) sectors. The Non-Building sector includes bridges, streets, water supply systems, sewers and other. Flat or zero percent growth is expected in the values of residential infrastructure projects.
RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET According to Dharma, a third-party aggregator of housing start data, the portion of the Oklahoma City metro that it tracks recorded 5,157 housing starts in 2025. This was 13% above the prior year. While mortgage rates remained elevated, housing starts in 2025 were at the highest level since 2022 (5,213). Over the past five years (2021-2025), 26,019 housing starts were captured in the Oklahoma City metro (an annual average of 5,203). More than 24,000 closed sales, 24,500 pending sales, and 34,000 new listings were reported for the OKC metro. The MLSOK Annual Report showed that 2025 home prices in the Oklahoma City metro were up compared to last year. The preliminary overall median sales price increased 3% to $262,900 for the year. Average Sales Price increased by 5% to $317,189. The number of homes available for sale was up 27% over prior year. There were 7,894 active listings at the end of 2025.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
THE OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AND EXPAND 2026 OKLAHOMA CITY MSA OUTLOOK Over the last 40 years, Oklahoma has been the 10th fastest urbanizing state in the nation, much to the benefit of the Oklahoma City MSA. Even with this pace of urbanization, Oklahoma remains only the 34th most urbanized state, leaving room for continued urbanization and concentration of population and economic activity in the Oklahoma City MSA. The MSA accounts for more than 37% of the state population and will approach and surpass 40% of state real GDP by the end of 2027. In contrast, the Tulsa MSA share of population and real GDP are holding constant near 26%.
Given the increasing share of the state’s population and economic activity in the OKC MSA, it makes sense to open the outlook with a review of local conditions. Indeed, it is increasingly the case that what happens in the OKC MSA drives Oklahoma’s economic reality. The year behind was defined by a significant downward revision in initial reports of 2024 employment growth. The initial momentum reported in 2024 proved illusory, challenging the growth forecast for 2025. It’s a credit to the resilience of OKC MSA businesses for sustaining even modest growth against challenging national conditions. But there is no illusion heading into 2026. Employment growth has stalled and national statistics regularly send mixed messages on the state of the nation’s economy. High income and high net worth households continue to spend while lower income households struggle to keep up with inflation. The OKC MSA will add some jobs in 2026, but long run fundamentals will persist with modest gains in population and personal income reinforcing the MSA’s role in anchoring the state economy.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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OKC MSA population is forecasted to grow by 1.1% both in 2026 and 2027, approaching a total population of 1.55 million by the end of 2027.
Oklahoma City MSA population growth has recovered from the 2017 low and is holding steady just above 1% growth per year. The forecast expects similar growth in 2026 and 2027 at 1.1%. MSA population passed 1.5 million people in 2025 and will approach 1.55 million people by the end of 2027. Personal income growth will slow in 2026 to 3.2% and approach $108 billion with initial expectations of 3.9% growth in 2027. Personal income growing faster than inflation is good for Oklahoma households as personal income growth of 3.2% and population growth of 1.1% will combine to move per capita personal income up by 2.0% in 2026 to $70,642 (see appendix table).
“
Personal income growth will slow in 2026 to 3.2% and approach $108 billion with initial expectations of 3.9% growth in 2027.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Oklahoma City metro economy added fewer jobs than initially reported in 2024, carried less momentum into 2025, and managed modest job gains through the year. Job gains were concentrated in three sectors: construction, health services, and leisure hospitality. By the end of 2025, the six-month moving average of Oklahoma City employment was effectively flat and employment changed little from 12 months prior. Oklahoma City employment in 2025 was supported in part by strong demand for construction employment. While we do expect the industry to hold those job gains as a series of large private and public projects progress, we do not expect the pace of job growth to repeat. Similarly, job growth in the restaurant services sector of leisure and hospitality was flat to end 2025 as shifting consumer spending began to be felt across the sector. We do expect continued job growth in the health services sector to be joined by modest gains in manufacturing, financial services, and professional services. The full forecast of Oklahoma and Oklahoma City macroeconomic and labor market conditions in 2026 is available in the appendix tables.
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The baseline forecast for OKC MSA nonfarm employment is for very slow growth through the first three quarters.
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We do expect continued job growth in the health services sector to be joined by modest gains in manufacturing, financial services, and professional services.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2026 OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK
Initial benchmark revisions to reported 2024 job growth revised total job gains down by 1.7% of total payrolls. The magnitude of revisions was second in the nation and just behind the 1.8% downward revisions in Colorado. Revisions for each of the states of the 10th Federal Reserve district are included for comparison.
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Initial job gains in Oklahoma were revised down by 1.7% of total nonfarm payrolls. The magnitude of revisions was second in the nation.
NOTE: Benchmarks released in September 2025 for initial CES estimates from March 2024 to March 2025
Inside Oklahoma, initial estimates in Oklahoma City were revised down by 1.8% of nonfarm payrolls while Tulsa job gains were revised down by 1.3%. In other words, the momentum thought to be present and carried into 2025 was not. Early data releases suggest significant downward revisions to early reports of 2025 job growth in the Tulsa MSA. Heading into 2026, the state is not generating sufficient new jobs to keep unemployment rates from rising in all metro areas of the state while initial and continued unemployment insurance claims creep towards levels that signal labor market distress.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
“
OKNF
The momentum thought to be present and carried into 2025 wasn’t reality. In contrast to 2025, Oklahoma enters 2026 with a labor market that is losing steam rather
than gaining momentum.
In contrast to 2025, Oklahoma enters 2026 with a labor market that is losing steam rather than gaining momentum. Our baseline forecast extends this struggle through the first half of 2026. Oklahoma nonfarm employment grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in 2025 with gains spread broadly across the state. Oklahoma City nonfarm payrolls grew at an annual rate of 0.9% while Tulsa payrolls grew at an annual rate of 1.2%. Recall, however, that these are effectively preliminary estimates of 2025 job growth and will be comprehensively revised in September 2026 and again in March 2027. We expect those revisions to lower initial job growth estimates in the Tulsa metro and, in turn, lower initial estimates for statewide job gains. In other words, the modest job growth reported for 2025 is likely to overstate the true strength of the state’s labor market.
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The unemployment rate across the state has and will move higher in 2026. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Lawton, and Enid all see their unemployment rate nearly a full percentage point higher than a year ago. State payrolls grow by 0.5% in 2026 with health care job gains offsetting losses in hospitality services and the trade sectors.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2026 U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Oklahoma City MSA and Oklahoma economies reflect, to some degree, national economic conditions. The U.S. labor market has stalled in the second half of the year generating nearly no net new jobs and seeing the unemployment rate move higher. Second, aggregate U.S. economic activity is increasingly and uncomfortably reliant on the retail spending of high-income households reliant on wealth effects to give them confidence to spend on credit.
The labor market is expected to struggle into 2026 with generating sufficient new jobs to contain the upward trend in the unemployment rate, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to act on its dual mandate, even as inflation remains stubbornly above policy’s 2% target rate. The income, consumption, and net worth graphic reveals the reality that high-income net worth households accounted for more than half of all retail consumption. The top 20% of earners represent nearly 60% of total income and 56.5% of total consumption. The table below shares the expectations of major national forecasting organizations: the National Association for Business Economics, the Conference Board, and Goldman Sachs. 1 Readers are encouraged to find or follow any of these entities for ongoing national economic analysis.
U.S. Outlook Summary
Metric (Source)
'26 Q1(f)
'26 Q2(f)
'26 Q3(f)
'26 Q4(f)
rGDP (NABE)
1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
Unemployment Rate (CB)
4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Fed Funds Rate (GS)
3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Inflation (NABE)
3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%
1
National Association for Business Economics, The Conference Board, Goldman Sachs
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The year ahead is likely to bring moderate growth, avoid a recession, and make continued progress on inflation. But too much uncertainty remains to declare the year ahead uneventful. Caution is encouraged as household balance sheets in particular remain precariously exposed to external shock. “ - Outlook 2025
The summary for the 2026 outlook remains largely the same, though more muted with a more pronounced warning. The best-case scenario for the year ahead is moderate growth, avoid a recession, and not lose progress already made on inflation. Extreme caution is encouraged as national economic resilience continues to be reliant on high-income households and their balance sheets that remain precariously exposed to external shocks.
2026 APPENDIX TABLES
Oklahoma Macroeconomy & Labor Market Outlook, Annual
Year
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025(e) 2026(f) 2027(f) Value $193,793 $190,094 $192,539 $196,031 $200,072 $191,377 $194,991 $194,171 $207,073 $210,316 $213,648 $218,829 $222,817 Y/Y growth 3.9% -1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% -4.3% 1.9% -0.4% 6.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% $172,726 $164,709 $171,995 $180,824 $189,997 $198,234 $217,902 $233,182 $247,301 $260,910 $270,915 $278,853 $286,396 -2.8% -4.6% 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 9.9% 7.0% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 2.9% 2.7% $124,004 $126,385 $130,254 $136,008 $138,657 $138,205 $155,943 $170,231 $180,518 $189,695 $196,432 $202,489 $208,341 1.4% 1.9% 3.1% 4.4% 1.9% -0.3% 12.8% 9.2% 6.0% 5.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 3,900,900 3,916,688 3,920,316 3,928,371 3,943,727 3,965,415 3,992,238 4,026,229 4,063,882 4,095,393 4,121,550 4,142,725 4,161,233 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 2,287,838 2,287,131 2,291,944 2,312,261 2,309,379 2,265,447 2,311,367 2,380,642 2,450,387 2,474,908 2,497,325 2,510,275 2,528,219 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% -0.1% -1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 1,705,945 1,689,282 1,696,327 1,720,358 1,741,587 1,666,612 1,683,523 1,740,701 1,785,141 1,807,062 1,827,064 1,835,019 1,846,064 0.4% -1.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.2% -4.3% 1.0% 3.4% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 581,893 597,849 595,617 591,903 567,792 598,835 627,844 639,941 665,246 667,846 670,261 675,256 682,155 1.4% 2.7% -0.4% -0.6% -4.1% 5.5% 4.8% 1.9% 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% $45,112 $44,817 $46,104 $47,762 $49,067 $50,650 $52,685 $55,111 $57,632 $59,965 $62,043 $63,952 $65,827 1.5% -0.7% 2.9% 3.6% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 1,745,090 1,734,041 1,747,790 1,768,822 1,779,707 1,722,603 1,784,726 1,837,576 1,894,600 1,920,156 1,939,871 1,953,073 1,969,909 1.9% -0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% -3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1,823,310 1,818,341 1,821,114 1,828,707 1,837,388 1,838,309 1,859,248 1,895,258 1,956,969 1,985,625 2,007,623 2,035,855 2,055,914 1.9% -0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.9% 3.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 3.1% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 4.1% 4.2% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 61.7% 61.2% 61.1% 61.2% 61.2% 60.7% 60.9% 61.4% 62.6% 62.8% 62.8% 62.5% 62.3% - - - - - - - - - - - - -
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT*
PERSONAL INCOME**
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION**
POPULATION
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
WAGES & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
PROPRIETOR'S EMPLOYMENT
AVERAGE WAGE AND SALARY
HH EMPLOYMENT
HH LABOR FORCE
HH UN RATE
HH LABOR FORCE PART. RATE
*$Mil, 2017, **$Mil
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Author Calculations
2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13
2026 APPENDIX TABLES
Oklahoma City Macroeconomy & Labor Market Outlook, Annual Oklahoma City MSA Macroeconomy & Labor Market Outlook, Annual
Quarter
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025(e) 2026(f) 2027(f) $76,699 $76,312 $81,586 $84,762 $88,501 $91,753 $94,581 0.7% -0.5% 6.9% 3.9% 4.4% 3.7% 3.1% 39.3% 39.3% 39.4% 40.3% 41.4% 41.9% 42.4%
$72,005 $72,190 $74,419 $77,047 $78,361 $76,135 4.2% 0.3% 3.1% 3.5% 1.7% -2.8% 37.2% 38.0% 38.7% 39.3% 39.2% 39.8%
Value
OKC RGDP*
Y/Y growth
OKC SHARE RGDP
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
$61,824 $61,605 $63,697 $66,709 $72,145 $76,377 1.7% -0.4% 3.4% 4.7% 8.1% 5.9% 35.8% 37.4% 37.0% 36.9% 38.0% 38.5%
$83,719 $90,801 $95,278 $99,840 $104,691 $108,021 $112,241 9.6% 8.5% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.9% 38.4% 38.9% 38.5% 38.3% 38.6% 38.7% 39.2%
OKC PERS INC**
OKC PERS INC SHARE OF OK
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,359,300 1,375,610 1,384,348 1,397,239 1,413,117 1,429,940 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 34.8% 35.1% 35.3% 35.6% 35.8% 36.1%
1,443,830 1,459,957 1,477,926 1,494,902 1,512,242 1,529,127 1,545,336 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 36.2% 36.3% 36.4% 36.5% 36.7% 36.9% 37.1%
OKC POP
OKC POP SHARE
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
$45,482 $44,784 $46,013 $47,744 $51,054 $53,413 0.1% -1.5% 2.7% 3.8% 6.9% 4.6% 636,346 645,834 653,718 666,993 676,815 655,280 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 2.0% 1.5% -3.2% 661,146 672,704 677,971 687,508 696,790 698,170 2.0% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 0.2% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.9% 6.1%
$57,984 $62,194 $64,468 $66,787 $69,229 $70,642 $72,632 8.6% 7.3% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 2.0% 2.8% 684,252 710,233 737,070 750,557 759,348 770,970 783,028 4.4% 3.8% 3.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 711,400 730,650 759,629 774,437 784,269 803,487 818,767 1.9% 2.7% 4.0% 1.9% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 3.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 4.0% 4.4%
OKC PCPI
OKC HH EMP
OKC HH LF
OKC HH UN RATE
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
*$Mil, 2017, **$Mil
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Author calculations
Oklahoma Employment by Sector Outlook, Annual
Year
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025(e) 1,800.7
2026(f) 1,808.7
2027(f) 1,819.0
1,650.0
1,705.2
1,757.1
1,778.1
Value (thous)
NONFARM
Y/Y growth
3.3%
3.0%
1.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.6%
1,304.1
1,355.3
1,397.5
1,411.0
1,432.7
1,441.2
1,450.0
PRIVATE
3.9%
3.1%
1.0%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
234.8
244.1
253.9
257.2
259.9
260.0
258.0
GOODS
3.9%
4.0%
1.3%
1.1%
0.0%
-0.8%
1,415.2
1,461.1
1,503.2
1,520.9
1,542.3
1,550.0
1,564.2
SERVICES
3.2%
2.9%
1.2%
1.4%
0.5%
0.9%
78.5
79.7
82.9
86.0
89.3
89.8
90.5
CONSTRUCTION
1.5%
4.0%
3.8%
3.8%
0.6%
0.7%
128.8
133.7
139.3
140.7
141.1
142.2
142.7
MANUFACTURING
3.8%
4.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.8%
0.4%
313.6
321.9
322.0
319.5
321.6
321.2
324.9
TRADE TRANSPORTATION UTILITIES
2.6%
0.0%
-0.8%
0.6%
-0.1%
1.2%
78.5
81.4
84.4
85.4
87.2
88.3
89.3
FINANCE
3.7%
3.6%
1.2%
2.1%
1.4%
1.1%
192.2
205.1
209.7
206.8
208.6
209.7
210.4
PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS SERVICES
6.7%
2.3%
-1.4%
0.9%
0.5%
0.3%
237.1
244.1
258.9
270.6
279.8
285.1
289.6
EDUCATION HEALTH
2.9%
6.1%
4.5%
3.4%
1.9%
1.6%
165.8
173.5
180.7
183.9
186.1
185.1
186.7
LEISURE
4.6%
4.2%
1.7%
1.2%
-0.6%
0.9%
64.4
67.5
69.9
70.3
71.3
70.9
71.3
OTHER
4.8%
3.5%
0.6%
1.4%
-0.5%
0.6%
345.9
349.8
359.6
367.1
371.0
372.1
373.6
GOVERNMENT
1.1%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.4%
1,571.7
1,624.9
1,671.9
1,692.5
1,705.1
1,710.7
1,721.5
OK QCEW
3.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Author calculations
*Excludes Mining, Information this year
14
2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2026 APPENDIX TABLES
Oklahoma City Employment by Sector Outlook, Annual Oklahoma City MSA Employment by Sector Outlook, Annual
Year
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025(e)
2026(f)
2027(f)
645.1
672.4
696.9
707.9
714.6
719.1
728.2
Value (thous)
NONFARM
Y/Y growth
4.2%
3.7%
1.6%
0.9%
0.6%
1.3%
518.2
545.1
566.0
574.6
582.9
587.7
596.1
PRIVATE
5.2%
3.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.8%
1.4%
73.3
78.2
81.1
81.4
83.1
84.3
85.1
GOODS
6.8%
3.7%
0.4%
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
571.9
594.2
615.9
626.5
632.5
636.0
646.4
SERVICES
3.9%
3.7%
1.7%
1.0%
0.6%
1.6%
31.3
32.6
33.9
34.9
37.4
38.0
38.5
CONSTRUCTION
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
7.1%
1.7%
1.3%
32.8
35.0
36.3
36.1
35.5
36.2
36.6
MANUFACTURING
6.5%
4.0%
-0.8%
-1.5%
2.1%
0.9%
122.7
126.5
127.1
127.7
128.4
128.3
131.0
TRADE TRANSPORTATION UTILITIES
3.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
-0.1%
2.1%
35.1
36.4
37.4
37.6
37.9
39.1
39.8
FINANCE
3.6%
2.9%
0.4%
1.0%
3.1%
1.7%
84.9
90.5
94.0
93.3
92.6
94.2
94.8
PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS SERVICES
6.6%
3.9%
-0.7%
-0.7%
1.7%
0.6%
98.5
103.2
111.0
117.4
122.4
124.9
127.5
EDUCATION HEALTH
4.8%
7.5%
5.8%
4.3%
2.0%
2.1%
70.6
75.4
78.8
80.3
81.0
81.0
81.8
LEISURE
0.0%
1.0%
6.8%
4.5%
2.0%
0.8%
27.5
29.1
30.3
30.5
31.1
31.3
31.7
OTHER
5.6%
4.4%
0.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1.3%
126.9
127.3
130.9
133.3
132.6
133.6
134.2
GOVERNMENT
0.3%
2.9%
1.8%
-0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
609.6
635.6
657.8
668.3
674.7
679.3
687.7
OKC QCEW
4.3%
3.5%
1.6%
1.0%
0.7%
1.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Author calculations
*Excludes Mining, Information this year
2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 15
123 PARK AVE. OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 73102 (405) 297-8900 OKCCHAMBER.COM GREATEROKLAHOMACITY.COM/OUTLOOK
02/2026
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