MOVING FORWARD
Pandemic COVID-19 is a low probability high impact event that comes around maybe once in a lifetime. The last time the world had seen an economic downturn of this magnitude was the Great Depression in 1929 in the U.S. It took a decade for the U.S. to recover, but it should take less time now for the world economy to recover given the lessons learned in the past few recessions, namely 1998 (mainly in Asia) and 2008 (mainly in the US and Europe) plus better technology. While countries around the world are at different levels of impact due to the COVID19, suffice to say none of them is out of the wood including Malaysia. But that does not mean planning to minimise such impact especially to Malaysia in the future should not start now. As a result of globalisation, nations now are more interconnected and interdependence of each other’s. The opening of international borders increases the flow speed of goods, services, finance, people and ideas; and the changes in institutions and policies at national and international levels facilitate or promote such flows, which are well and good until it gets hit by the Black Swan. On this occasion, globalisationwill unleash its side effects, leaving individual nations to fend for itself to maintain order, hence the need of a country-specific solution. Here and elsewhere, nations experiencing deaths and hardships caused by supply chain failure, food (dry and wet) shortages, outdated technology, and health equipment shortages etc. Enforcement of Movement Control Act (MCO), despite its running success in containing the pandemic, on the flip side, has negatively affected economic and social conditions in Malaysia. Several times over the last few decades, pandemic and endemic have caused either mild or severe socioeconomic disruptions. Public policies have been designed to deal with such current and post events yet apparently not enough. Is it our understanding about such event or approaches to policy making or its implementation a problem? Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, the event and what should have been done are clear, but as soon as a new pandemic hits the shore, all countries seem unprepared. COVID19 up to now is the worst by looking at the havoc and chaos it has created socially and economically – domestic and global. Maybe a newway forward would give us the best chance of addressing the shortcomings
where it requires key changes in our way of doing things, especially on the method/technique to formulate policies, rules and regulations, as far as the government is concerned. The technique to detect fragility in all areas mentioned earlier plus many others. It is imperative because fragility comes directly from nonlinearity and convexity effects, and that convexity is measurable (Taleb, 2012). The technique, able to detect acceleration of harm, applies to anything that entails making decisions under uncertainty, and risk management. For this technique to work, it should be guided by principles that call for a simple concept of Self-Reliance – a new sense of independence in terms of our requirements that is both sustainable and fulfilling; to be incorporated into our national psyche. Therefore, drawing of new plans and programs must consider these proposed National Interest Guiding Principles. 1. Self-Reliance – “Rome was not built in a day”, yet we must take the first step and follow through in phases. Self-reliance must be at the core of our forward planning. Prioritising self-sufficiency in the national plan, especially those products and services that fall under the first and second level of the Maslow Hierarchy of Needs, will ensure development carries a degree of local connectedness, where the components - be it industry or public enterprises, to have a sense of flexibility built into them. The possibility of “Plant Conversion” should not be discounted. Taking a lesson from the American Defense Production Act, our authorities with the support of the respective industry are hoping to adopt a “catered for” approach in their planning. Adopting this approach means plants can be converted and reconfigured for any emergency requirement should it arise. National Emergency Stockpile is an aspect worth for consideration and applying fragility technique mentioned earlier is highly recommended. These two items can be new independent variables in the new national plan equation. 2. Resilience - Industry must derive their strength from local advantages, capabilities, and capacity. These develop new supply chains based on local availability in stages. These encourage import substitution activities like what have been done in the sixties, but invariably infuse them with innovation.
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Malaysian Technology Strategic Outlook 2019/2020 Intergration of High Technology
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