MILITARY SECURITY: RUSSIA, UKRAINE AND EUROPE //
G7 PERFORMANCE ON UKRAINE, 1975–2024
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
Compliance (%)
Conclusions (% words)
Commitments (%)
Compliance (%)
Conclusions (% words)
Commitments (%)
“With Canada’s prime minister having invited Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the summit, Ukraine will be a major topic”
RECOMMENDATIONS Years with commitments that specifically invoke economic penalties – either broadly stated or specifically referring to sanctions – have generated the highest compliance. In 2014 and 2023, G7 commitments explicitly stated the intention to impose or uphold sanctions against Russia, and in 2022, commitments likewise delineated an intention to “impose severe and immediate economic costs on President [Vladimir] Putin’s regime”. These three years had a combined average compliance of 98%. Second, there is a correlation between the release of a stand-alone G7 statement on Ukraine and high compliance with commitments related to Ukraine. In 2014, 2022 and 2023, G7 leaders released statements affirming their commitment
to defending Ukrainian security and condemning Russian aggression. As mentioned, these years had high compliance. In 2016, a statement was also released on Ukraine, but rather than pertain to Ukrainian security it described energy sector support; compliance with three commitments on Ukraine that year averaged 56%. CONCLUSION Despite limited data, commitments referencing the war in Ukraine and issuing punitive actions against Russia seem likely to produce high rates of compliance. In contrast, peacetime commitments concerned with diplomacy and development have lower levels of compliance.
// ZOE MASON Zoe Mason is a senior researcher with the G7 Research Group based at the University of Toronto. She is a recent graduate of the University of Toronto, where she obtained a master’s degree in contemporary international history. Her research focuses primarily on nuclear weapons and American foreign policy. She plans to continue her study of nuclear weapons policy at the doctoral level.
X-TWITTER @g7_rg www.g7.utoronto.ca
25 globalgovernanceproject.org
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