4
Market Update – Economy, Federal Reserve & Bond Market Economy: Modest growth in spending & production, slowing but elevated inflation.
Q1 2026 Q4 2025 Q3 2025 Q2 2025 Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Q3 2023 Q2 2023 Q1 2023 Q4 2022 Q3 2022 Q2 2022 Q1 2022
Real GDP (yoy %)
2.70 3.20 4.30
2.00 2.97 4.40
2.30 2.83 4.40
2.10 2.81 4.10
2.00 2.67 4.20
2.40 2.99 4.10
2.80 2.84 4.10
3.10 2.75 4.10
2.90 3.12 3.90
3.40 3.11 3.80
3.20 3.69 3.70
2.80 4.38 3.60
1.30 4.97 3.50
2.30 5.61 3.50
2.30 4.78 3.50
2.50 5.32 3.60
4.00 5.59 3.70
Core PCE Index (yoy %) Unemployment Rate (%)
*** Real GDP & Core PCE are published by the BEA; the Unemployment Rate is published by the BLS.
U.S. Treasury Yields
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2023
Years
Year
2 YR
5 YR
10 YR
• Longer Duration Reserves – interest rate volatility results in market value changes thus affecting total returns. • Interest rate increases offset income accruals while interest rate decreases enhance income accruals.
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