4
Market Update – Economy, Federal Reserve & Bond Market Economy: Modest growth in spending & production, slowing but elevated inflation.
Q3 2025
Q2 2025 Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Q3 2023 Q2 2023 Q1 2023 Q4 2022
2.10 1/ 2.90 2/ 4.50 3/
Real GDP (yoy %)
2.10 2.81 4.10
2.00 2.67 4.20
2.40 2.99 4.10
2.80 2.84 4.10
3.10 2.75 4.10
2.90 3.12 3.90
3.40 3.11 3.80
3.20 3.69 3.80
2.80 4.38 3.60
2.30 4.78 3.50
1.30 4.97 3.50
Core PCE Index (yoy %) Unemployment Rate (%)
1/ Period through June 30 as revised September 2025 2/ Survey Average for August 2025 as of September 2025 3/ Survey Average for October 2025 as of November 2025
*** Real GDP & Core PCE are published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the website was last updated on 10/1/2025. *** The Unemployment Rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the website was last updated on 10/4/2025.
U.S. Treasury Yields
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Years
Year
2YR
5 YR
10 YR
Federal Reserve: The Fed remains vigilant to downside risks, with keen attention to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs & geopolitical risks. The Fed held rates steady from August 2023 to September 2024, but has since cut fives times for a total of 150 basis points in order mitigate the risk of an economic slowdown. The Fed stated at its most recent meeting in October that it will no longer continue the reduction of its positions in Treasuries, Agency & Agency MBS, ceasing to actively shrink its balance sheet. This program officially ends December 1, 2025, allowing markets an adjustment period.
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