Fiscal Year 2026-2031 Financial Forecast Page Two
Financial Metrics
Requirement Current Forecast Period (FY 2026 – 2031)
Rate Covenant
≥ 1.0
Minimal level of 1.1 in FY 2031
Debt Service Coverage
Requirement met through FY 2027; Minimal level of 1.4 in FY 2031 Requirement met throughout the forecast period
≥ 2.0
Unencumbered Cash
≥ $400M
Debt Outstanding
< $4.0B
Max Level of $3.94B in FY 2031
ANALYSIS
The primary differences between the current 6-year forecast and November 2024 forecast are:
• Total revenue : Total revenue remains relatively flat throughout the FY 2026 – 2031 forecast period, declining by a net $0.1 million.
• Operating budget expenses : Operating budget expenses increase by $83.5 million throughout the 6-year forecast period. Key drivers of the increase are mandated personnel expenses, insurance costs, management study activities, and increased E-ZPass ® Service Center costs. • Capital budget expenses : Capital budget expenses increase by approximately $144.8 million compared to the Final FY 2025-2030 CTP. The net increase includes the rollover (cashflow shift) of $180.9 million of unexpended funds from FY 2025 into subsequent fiscal years, 9 new projects, a net reduction in the allocated and unallocated reserves, and summative minor budget changes in numerous other projects. As previously mentioned, the budget for the FSK Bridge Rebuild reflects the original cost estimate that was prepared within two weeks of the bridge collapse. The cost estimate will be updated prior to the next MDTA bond sale. • Debt issuances : Revenue bond issuances increase by $240.3 million throughout the forecast period due to a projected short-term refinancing, however, total bonds outstanding decline during the FY 2026-2031 forecast period. The forecast models a short-term bank line of credit to assist with Key Bridge Rebuild funding while awaiting reimbursement from the federal government. A tax-law requirement to segregate the financings necessitates the higher issuance and payoff activities relative to the last forecast. • Debt Service: Debt service declines by $100.4 million during the forecast period mostly due to capital project cashflow adjustments that result in more PAYGO (cash) being available for capital spending in the initial years of the forecast period.
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