Ms. Deborah Sharpless September 5, 2025 Page 9
Forecast Versus Actual In this section, the actual collected transactions and revenue are compared to the October 2024 forecast for each of the facilities. Table 5 provides the comparison for the Legacy System transactions by vehicle type and method of payment and Table 6 shows the same comparison for collected toll revenue. In the first half of FY 2025, passenger cars were 2.4 percent below forecast and commercial vehicles were 1.1 percent below forecast. In the second half of FY 2025, passenger cars were 0.3 above forecast and commercial vehicles were 0.5 percent below forecast. Total FY 2025 transactions overall were 1.1 percent below forecast, with ETC transactions falling 2.2 percent below forecast and video transactions 12.0 percent above forecast. The first two months of the forecast included actuals, hence there is a negligible variation. The timing differences for the number of days posted for ETC and Video transactions processed under the Central Collections Unit (CCU) compared to the forecast contributed to the monthly variations from forecast. As shown in Table 6, collected toll revenue on the Legacy System showed nearly identical trend versus the forecast as those seen in transactions. This can be attributed to the assumption of average toll was very close to the actuals. Due to this, the only months for comparison of forecast versus actual are May and June. Passenger car revenue was 9.0 percent below forecast in May and 11.0 percent above forecast for June, yielding a 0.5 percent shortfall for FY 2025 passenger car toll revenue compared to forecast for FY total. Commercial vehicle revenue was 31.0 percent below for May and 55.0 percent above forecast for June. Overall, FY 2025 collected revenue totals were 0.8 percent below forecast. Notable monthly variances between forecast and actual transactions and revenue observed in the second half of FY 2025 were due to a combination of the timing of paid video transactions from violations recovery deviating from forecast, and to the delayed April and May NY EZ-Pass payments received in June. Additionally, the backlog in NY EZ-Pass was not fully processed until July of 2025 resulting in some revenue that was forecasted in FY 2025 to be received in FY 2026, which contributed to the shortfall in revenue compared to forecast for the second half of FY 2025.
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